291
FXAK69 PAFG 262313
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Thu Sep 26 2024

SYNOPSIS...Benign weather to continue across Northern Alaska.
Light precipitation falling as rain, snow or a mixture of rain and
snow will persist through the overnight hours. However, by
tomorrow expect the region to slowly dry out as a shortwave ridge
builds northeastward. This will result in warm and drier
conditions along with clearer skies. The exception to this will be
the Seward Peninsula and areas south and east which will maintain
cloudy and showery conditions as the trailing end of a broad low
pressure will linger over the area before finally being dragged
southeastward, towards the Gulf of Alaska, by the start of next
week.

DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Forecast Discussion...The broad area of low
pressure, currently centered near 57N/179W continues to slowly
track southeastward. Model guidance continues to show this low
slowly weakening through the end of the week and will likely be
around 995 mb or higher as it tracks west of St. Paul island. As
this low trudges southeast through the weekend, a shortwave ridge
of high pressure will bring a warming trend across the the
forecast area and result in most areas having daytime highs at or
near seasonal normals. The shortwave ridge will also result in the
high probability of a subsidence inversion developing starting
Friday night and redeveloping overnight through the weekend. This
will help the majority of the interior to clear out and result in
overnight lows at or near freezing (for those areas who have not
yet had their first taste of freezing/below freezing lows so far).

Central and Eastern Interior...Light rain and snow showers will
continue to persist very early Friday morning as the current
pattern is showing a moderate PoP/low QPF (Probability of
Precipitation/Precip totals) situation, which means little
overall accumulation is expected. In addition, with the moist
ground, patchy fog development should be expected through the
Friday morning hours. Friday night, skies will begin to clear as a
short wave ridge builds, resulting in warmer and drier conditions
for the central and eastern interior through the weekend.
Generally across the region expect winds to be light. The
exception to this will be along the Alaska Range where there is
around a 35-45% probability of gusts up to 30 mph will be possible
Friday night and Saturday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s
Friday and in the upper 40s and low 50s through Sunday. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 30s tonight through Sunday with
areas continuing to cool down through the start of next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...Light precipitation in the form
of rain, snow or a mixture of rain and snow will persist through
tonight along with patchy. Conditions will start to dry out Friday
as a shortwave ridge brings relatively warmer and drier conditons
for the interior. As Saturday approaches, models are in good
agreement that a col (saddle point) develops within the upper
levels of the atmosphere. This will result in generally quiet
weather as conditions dry out through the weekend. However, do
expect lingering showers south of Nome. Winds along the coast will
be northerly, increasing to 25-30 mph through the Bering Strait
tonight through Friday afternoon. Winds turn easterly across
Norton Sound Friday evening at 15-20 mph and persist through
Saturday evening. Lows along the coast will be near freezing with
highs mostly in the low 40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Isolated light snow showers
possible through tonight mainly along the coast, but for the most
part just stratus is expected. Skies will clear some on Saturday
beneath the building ridge especially east of Utqiagvik. Winds
around 10 mph or less with gusts up to 20 mph east of Utqiagvik.
However, towards the start of the upcoming week, easterly winds
will return across the area with gusts up to 30 mph. Lows along
the coast will be near freezing with highs in the mid to upper
30s. Highs will be near freezing near the Brooks Range with lows
in the teens and 20s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...The Interior and the
North Slope look to remain dry while conditions on the West Coast
trend more active. Forecast models show the possibility of a
number of low pressure systems moving into the Bering Sea, each
with strong fronts associated with them. The first looks to be in
the Tuesday time-frame and the second on Thursday and Friday.
There is still a good deal of uncertainty on the track of each
low, but the first system on Tuesday looks to weaken rapidly as it
moves inland, bringing only a slight risk of any elevated water
at this time. It is too early to tell if the potential system on
Thursday/Friday will bring any threat of coastal flooding.

HYDROLOGY...No concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-854-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-817-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$