066
FXAK69 PAFG 142243
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and warmer conditions are expected over most of Northern
Alaska this weekend into early next week. Conditions will be
similar to last weekend but with much less wind.

The Eastern Interior is the main area for convection through the
weekend. Today expected isolated to scattered showers, and
isolated to widely scattered PM thunderstorms, then just isolated
PM thunderstorms Sat through Mon.

Isolated dry thunderstorms are occuring today over the Northeast
Interior causing Red Flag conditions in that area due to very dry
conditions.

A band of strong thunderstorms that stretches from the White
Mountains to Chicken now will spread to Fairbanks to Northway
later this afternoon and evening and to the Alaska Range by late
evening. The thunderstorms will have strong gusty winds, hail up
to one half inch diameter, frequent lightning and brief heavy
rain.

Fog along the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik will continue
through the weekend, thinning in the afternoon and evening each
day.

Fog along the West Coast will continue through the weekend,
thinning in the afternoon and evening each day.

Surface pattern...
A thermal low pressure trough that stretches from Chicken to
Anaktuvuk Pass will move to Northway Chandalar Lake to Anaktuvuk
Pass by Sat, and then persist into Mon. This will be a focus for
isolated convective thunderstorms over the Eastern Interior over
the weekend, and also delineate the warmest surface temperatures.
The driest and warmest conditions will be northeast of the
trough.

A vertically stacked 1009 mb low 300 NM west of Point Hope will
move to 400 NM northwest of Utqiagvik as a 1013 mb low by 4pm Sat,
remain in place through 4pm Sun, and then move to 200 NM west of
Utqiagvik as a 1914 mb low by 4pm Mon. This is causing SW winds
15 to 25 mph from the Bering Strait to Point Hope that will
spread to the Western Arctic Coast on Sat while decreasing over
the Bering Strait. Winds will decrease most areas on Sun.
Fog along the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik will continue
through the weekend, thinning in the afternoon and evening each
day.

Strong high pressure over the Beaufort Sea will weaken Sun and
Mon. Fog along the Arctic Coast east of Utqiagvik will continue
through the weekend, thinning in the afternoon and evening each
day.

Strong high pressure over the Northern Bering Sea and West Coast
of AK will persist through Sun and then weaken on Mon. This will
cause fog along the West Coast that will continue through the
weekend, thinning in the afternoon and evening each day. Fog will
thin most areas on Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
Mon with just very slight differences in short wave speed.

The long wave pattern consists of an omega block with the
blocking high over Mainland AK. That blocking high will build
slightly through Sun and then persist into next week. This will
keep most of Northern AK warmer than normal and dry.

A vertically stacked low over the Chukchi Sea will move over the
Northern Chukchi Sea Sat and Sun, then back over the Southern
Chukchi Sea Mon and Tue.

A weak short wave trough stretching from Chicken to Atigun Pass
will move to Northway to Nenana to Atigun Pass by midnight
tonight. This is causing isolated thunderstorms that will move
southwest with the trough. Where this trough is intersecting
higher moisture conditions it is causing a band of strong
thunderstorms that stretches from the White Mountains to Chicken
that will spread to Fairbanks to Northway later this afternoon and
evening and to the Alaska Range by late evening. The
thunderstorms will have strong gusty winds, hail up to one half
inch in diameter, frequent lightning and brief heavy rain.

All models show 850 mb temperatures of +10 over the Nrn Interior,
Interior near the ALCAN Border, and over the Central and Ern Brooks
Range cooling to 0C over the Seward Pen and NW AK. That cooler
air will spread north over the Chukchi Sea tonight and Sat, while
most of Nrn AK will warm 2-4C on Sat, then warm 1-2C on Sun and
remain that warm into Mon. Surface temps will rise 5-10F at the
surface in most areas on Sat, then rise a few degrees F on Sun and
remain warm into Mon.

With precipitation, models show similar areas for convective
showers. The Eastern Interior is the main area for convection through the
weekend. Today expected isolated to scattered showers, and
isolated to widely scattered PM thunderstorms, then just isolated
PM thunderstorms Sat through Mon. The widely scattered
thunderstorms this PM are in a band from the White Mountain to to
Chicken and will spread to Fairbanks to Northway later this
afternoon and evening and to the Alaska Range by late evening.
They will have strong gusty winds, hail up to one half inch in
diameter, frequent lightning and brief heavy rain. Thunderstorms
today are higher based over NE AK and could produce dry lightning
from Eagle to the Yukon River Bridge northeast. Areas of light
rain from the Bering Strait to Point Hope will move north over far
NW AK tonight, over the Chukchi Sea on Sat, and bring a chance of
rain to the Western Arctic Coast of AK on Sun and Mon.

At the surface at 18Z, models verify about 8 mb too weak on the
low south of Adak but verify well on most other features. Models
show fairly similar solutions through Mon. Winds should remain
below 15 mph over the Interior through Mon other that thunderstorm
gusts. SW winds 15 to 25 mph from the Bering Strait to Point Hope
will spread to the Western Arctic Coast on Sat while decreasing
over the Bering Strait. For Sun into Mon coastal winds will be 20
mph or less.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier and warmer conditions are expected over most of Northern
Alaska this weekend into early next week. Conditions will be
similar to last weekend but with much less wind.

The Eastern Interior is the main area for convection through the
weekend. Today expected isolated to scattered showers, and
isolated to widely scattered PM thunderstorms, then just isolated
PM thunderstorms Sat through Mon. The widely scattered
thunderstorms this PM are in a band from the White Mountains to
Chicken and will spread to Fairbanks to Northway later this
afternoon and evening and to the Alaska Range by late evening.
They will have strong gusty winds, hail up to one half inch in
diameter, frequent lightning and brief heavy rain.

Isolated dry thunderstorms are occuring today from Eagle to the
Yukon River Bridge northeast causing Red Flag conditions in that
area due to very dry fuel conditions in that area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water from snowmelt has made its way down rivers to the coast
on the Central North Slope. The high water is caused by warm temperatures
and snow melt in the Brooks Range. It is expected that water levels will fall
slowly through the the weekend and into next week.

Periods of heavy showers fell along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range,
and over the Goodpaster River Basin, and the Upper Charlie and Upper
Fortymile River Basins the past few days. Rainfall amounts range
from one half to nearly 2 inches, with the heaviest amounts along
the Alaska Range to the east of Denali Park. This water is now
working its way down rivers. The small rivers have now crested
and are beginning to fall. Larger rivers such as the Tanana, the
Delta, the Nabesna and the Chisana Rivers will rise over the next
several days and people along those large rivers should be alert
to rising water. No flooding is expected.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Red Flag Warning for AKZ933-935.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

JB