747
FXAK67 PAJK 220551
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
951 PM AKDT Tue May 21 2024

.SHORT TERM...The latest satellite imagery shows mostly to partly
cloudy skies over the SE AK panhandle. Winds are on the light
side with some increasing westerly winds near Cross Sound and Icy
Strait to 15 kts and some northerly winds 10 to 15 kt in Chatham
Strait, Stephens Passage and Clarence Strait. These winds will
slowly diminish through the evening hours.

A front over the western gulf will continue to push east as the
upper ridge axis over the central gulf drifts east and moves over
the forecast area by Wednesday morning and to the east of the area
by Wed night. A surface front on the west side of the ridge will
begin to affect the Yakutat area late tonight into Wednesday
morning. This front will continue to move east and the periods of
light rain will spread over northern inner channels through the
day and then moving into the southern half in the early evening
hours. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.5 to 1.0 inches through
Wednesday night.

Wind wise...there will be an increase in southeast winds over the
eastern gulf as the front moves east to be 15 to 25 kts. Over the
inner channels the winds will be less with the highest winds
reaching 15 kts from the southeast.

Overall there is good forecaster confidence in the next 36 hours
and we used a mix of the HRRR and NBM which produced very minor
changes.


.LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Sunday night / Active pattern set
to continue for SE Alaska for the remainder of the week. The
system mentioned in the short range will slowly push inland
through Thursday. Once the rain moves through and accompanying low
diminishes into a weak broad open trough, skies are set to clear
later in the day Thursday and into Friday. This will allow for
potential fog development in areas which can see maximized
radiational cooling in the overnight hours along with light winds.

Clearing skies on Friday means warmer temperatures once more, with
daytime highs rebounding back to upper 50s and near 60 for the
majority of the panhandle heading into Saturday. Temperatures are
not expected to go any higher than this despite clearing
conditions due to unseasonably cold air aloft at 850 mb.
Unfortunately unsettled weather looks to move in once more for
the second half of the holiday weekend with increasing rain
chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday along with cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue for this afternoon as some
low to mid level clouds hang around but should continue to
decrease in coverage as a ridge of high pressure moves overhead.
The first half of the TAF period will continue to provide good
weather but that will come to an end during the second half of the
TAF period as a front moving closer to the panhandle will bring
rain with lowered CIGs and some decreases in VIS possible. As the
front gets closer, some turbulence will be possible with continued
less than favorable weather into Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PCs-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABJ
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...SF

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