


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
315 FXAK67 PAJK 151258 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 458 AM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SHORT TERM... Key Points: - A ridge over the gulf is allowing for dry conditions to continue with partly cloudy skies. - High temperatures in the mid to high 60s expected this week. - Winds remain light in many areas with the exception of afternoon sea breezes. Details: Very few changes were made to the forecast for Tuesday. The developing ridge continues to bring northwesterly winds and drier conditions across the panhandle. Partly cloudy to clear skies will allow for temperatures to increase to mid to high 60s throughout the day. Multiple areas will even see temperatures into the low 70s. Increasing day time temperatures will allow for sea breezes to form increasing winds for some land areas. Skagway will experience the largest affect from sea breezes with winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts in the afternoon. Currently, as the ridge continues to move closer to the eastern gulf coast, the pressure gradient has strengthened over N Lynn Canal increasing winds from Eldred Rock to Taiya Inlet to 15 to 20 kts early this morning. This gradient is expected to become more west to east oriented, allowing for winds across N Lynn to slightly decrease this morning. That being said, sea breezes are still expected to develop this afternoon. .LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Friday / The ridge over the gulf Wednesday will flatten slightly leading to a more zonal like flow across the southern gulf the British Columbia by Friday. A weak trough spreads some light rain into the Northeast gulf coast Wednesday to early Thursday. The zonal flow may not run across the southern panhandle Friday and Saturday and Sunday /positions is variable in the models/, but any shortwaves could potentially clip the area with precipitation, Friday or Saturday. Short waves are small, would be fairly quick moving so isolating them may be issued. Wednesday should fairly sunny for the inner channels but will be needing to watch the Marine layer out over the gulf that is pushing to the coast, and likely trying to spread into the panhandle over the later part of the week. && .AVIATION...More fog and low clouds to deal with this morning though it is not as wide spread as yesterday. The fog, in parts of the south, is very shallow as seen in webcams at Petersburg and Wrangell this morning where the fog is only about 100 to 200 feet thick, if that, with IFR conditions right at ground level but VFR conditions right above it. The Outer Coast and western Icy Strait is also dealing with some clouds from Baranof Island northward partly from marine layer low clouds and partly from some mid level clouds from a weak disturbance over the NE gulf coast. MVFR to VFR ceiling here with the lowest being 1500 ft at Gustavus. The fog and lower clouds should diminish through the morning with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the day. The marine layer clouds should return for the outer coast tonight again possibly reaching Gustavus again in Icy Strait. As for fog, lower possibility of it tonight as another day of warmer weather drys out the lower atmosphere, but best chance is still around Petersburg and Wrangell again. Winds remain low for most areas though sea breeze circulations may produce winds up to 20 kt in some areas particularly Skagway. && .MARINE... Outside: As the ridge continues to tighten this morning, northwesterly winds along the central to southern coast will increase to NW moderate to strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts. Along with strong breezes, times of near gale to gale force wind gusts have a chance of occurring Tuesday evening and night near the southern coast. Wave heights build to 6 to 8 ft, with the largest seas west of Prince of Wales Island and near Dixon Entrance. These increased winds and waves are expected into Wednesday before the ridge begins to slightly weaken. Inside: Mainly light to gentle breezes of 5 to 10 kts persist across the inner channels. An exception to these lighter winds will be areas that normally experience sea breezes. Specifically, Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and Lynn Canal will see increases in winds Tuesday afternoon. The sea breeze will allow winds to increase to 15 to 20 kts along these areas. Along Clarence Strait, Northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 kts through the period with the tightening ridge. These winds across Clarence Strait will remain elevated through Wednesday, beginning to diminish wednesday evening. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662. && $$ SHORT TERM...EAB LONG TERM....Bezenek AVIATION...EAL MARINE...EAB Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau