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FXAK67 PAJK 221756
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
956 AM AKDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Active synoptic pattern
will continue into the weekend over SE AK, bringing a series of
features and overall temperate and wet conditions. The best
chance for a break between systems remains Friday night into
Saturday, particularly for the northern panhandle, while the
southern panhandle should still see scattered showers. With
persistent southerly or southwesterly flow aloft, snow levels will
be on the rise through the weekend ranging from upwards of 2500
ft in the south and 1500 ft or more along Icy Strait.

The first feature is a gale force low forming along the triple
point of a parent low in the western gulf. This will bring gale
force winds to Dixon entrance and waters off of southern Prince of
Wales Saturday night as the low swings northward. This will bring
a fresh influx of moisture and more sustained showers to the
southern panhandle, spreading northward through Sunday
overspreading the entire panhandle. As it progresses towards the
north central gulf this feature will weaken, though is expected to
still produce near gale force winds out of Cross Sound and into
the gulf.

As the main band of showers moves northward over the panhandle,
winds will shift out of the north allowing for some snow to mix in
with rain as far down as the Icy Strait corridor, particularly
with the onset of any heavier showers. However, 850 mb
temperatures look to remain warm enough to not have any
significant snow concerns at sea level. 24 hour precipitation
totals range from around 1 inch in the southern panhandle down to
0.5 inches or less in the northern panhandle, though this could
change if the low tracks a bit closer to the outer coast before
veering westward. As is often the case, locally higher totals are
likely at higher elevations where orographic forcing is maximized.

While this low is expected to drift westward in the gulf and
follow in the footsteps of its predecessor, onshore flow will
continue to bring diminishing showers across the panhandle through
Monday, with a likely dry slot forming over the central panhandle.
Ensembles continue to suggest the far southern panhandle likely
maintaining chance showers into Tuesday, with the NE gulf coast in
a similar fashion.

&&

.AVIATION... /Until 18Z Sunday/...
Weak troughing in the eastern Gulf will keep showers
overspreading the panhandle through early afternoon, becoming more
isolated into the afternoon. Anticipating VFR to upper MVFR
flight conditions to prevail through early afternoon with CIGS
3000 to 6000ft and visibilities 4SM to P6SM. Flight conditions
deteriorate to predominate MVFR Saturday evening through Sunday
morning across the panhandle from south from north as a front
pushes into the southern panhandle with showers overspreading the
area with CIGS AoB 3000ft and visbys 2 to 4SM within heavier
showers.

Sustained winds between 10-15kts this afternoon will decrease to
around 6 to 8kts by this evening, going near 5kts and variable
overnight for TAF sites along and north of Sitka to Wrangell. For
PAKT and PAKW, expect winds to increase by 03z as front
approaches, maximizing around 10 to 15kts with gusts up to 25kts
by 06z. Expecting more widespread LLWS to develop through
afternoon across the southern panhandle TAF sites around 2000ft,
up to 40kts southeasterly turning more easterly by 04z to 08z.
LLWS will slowly spread northward across the panhandle through 18z
Sunday with front weakening and the low in the northern gulf
dissipating through Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A low is moving north through the gulf. This will swing a near
gale force front through the eastern gulf and inner channels.
Small craft advisories are in effect along the outer coastline and
eastern gulf, as well as in Clarence and Sumner Strait. Gale
force winds are mainly in Dixon Entrance. As this front tracks
north, increased winds and precip will track north. But as the
front moves north, the low will swing west, so the front should
weaken through tonight.

Wave heights will increase to upwards of 11 ft in the eastern
gulf, diminishing to around 8 ft after the front passes. SE swell
will weaken from 10 ft to around 5 ft through the day before
transitioning WSW proceeding the next low moving into the gulf
Saturday afternoon. For the inner channels, combined seas average
around 3 to 5 ft, diminishing as the front passes.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-642>644-651-652-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...PRB

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