Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

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616
FXAK67 PAJK 261258
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
458 AM AKDT Sun May 26 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/Active forecast for the short
range continues with the broad low in the central gulf mostly
staying put. The main change in the forecast this morning is that
a separate small compact low developed just west of Dixon
Entrance overnight and is moving NW just off the outer coast this
morning. There is an area of small craft winds to 30 kt with seas
to 8 ft on the N and E side of it. The low is expected to continue
to track NW then W through the eastern gulf through the day
eventually tracking south of Cape Suckling this evening taking the
area of higher winds with it. The central and southern inner
channel winds will also see a slight increase to 15 or even 20 kt
as this feature moves by today before diminishing overnight.

Speaking of the inner channels the northern half is currently
seeing northerly winds as troughing to the south and the
previously discussed low have flipped pressure gradients to a
northerly this morning. Those winds are expected to flip south
again by midday as the trough moves NW and ridging builds over the
panhandle from the S.

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track and rather
damp with some weaker frontal bands continuing to track through
the area from the S due to the broad low in the central gulf.
Highest rainfall amounts continue to be expected over the southern
half of the panhandle as areas farther north have more easterly
downsloping flow contributing to lower rainfall totals overall.


.LONG TERM...The active weather pattern continues through the
first half of the week, though a break may be possible Wednesday
and Thursday.

Aloft, an area low pressure over the Gulf will occlude and weaken
as it meanders slowly to the SE. Waves of precipitation rotating
around the decaying low will continue to move through the area
until a more offshore synoptic pattern is established as the low
moves S of the panhandle. A period of drier weather will
subsequently be possible Tuesday night through much of Thursday
though the cloud deck and a few showers will likely linger in
some locations. Beyond Thursday, operational guidance is
increasingly favoring the idea of a strong frontal band moving
into the panhandle on Friday, but confidence remains low on
timing and the location of the system`s parent low.

Main forecast changes were to refine the anticipated timing of the
potential drier weather for the middle of the week and add some
additional detail in the wind forecast prior to this point.

&&

.AVIATION...A low in the Gulf of Alaska will keep persistent rain
and overcast skies across SE AK through the TAF period.
Anticipate marginal visual conditions with CIGs between 2000 and
5000 ft. Winds increase through mid morning with sustained winds
up to 15kts and isolated gusts up to 25kts possible between
18z-00z this afternoon. Highest precipitation chances along the
coast with reductions in VSBY as low as 4SM within heaviest
showers.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-642>644-662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...NM

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