027
FXAK67 PAJK 102257
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
257 PM AKDT Fri May 10 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ Quiet short range forecast
today as the panhandle will be in between systems through
Saturday night. Last night`s system has completely cleared the
panhandle and we are currently left with some clouds, onshore
flow, and few light rain showers for the north. Some breezy
southerly winds are still blowing through Skagway and northern
Lynn, but those winds should continue to diminish into tonight.

Main concern for Saturday will be how cold overnight lows get
across the north and if any fog will develop. For gardeners in
areas around Hoonah, Gustavus, and the Chilkat Valley near Haines,
lows Saturday morning look to dip into the mid to low 30s just
enough for possible frost formation. so have decided to issues
some frost advisories for those areas. For the Mendenhall Valley
and Yakutat currently think that temps will just be warm enough to
avoid frost, but there is still a chance clouds could break up
enough to allow temperatures to drop overnight. Fog is also a
possibility for many inner channel areas for Saturday morning due
to the moist ground from yesterday and light winds. Thus patchy
fog has been added to the forecast. Complicating the forecast is
that if fog does develop, or clouds linger, temps may stay warm
enough in the north to avoid frost altogether.

Into Saturday night, clouds and rain start to return and winds
will be increasing as a new front moves in from the west. No
atmospheric river influences this time so the rainfall should be
mostly light.


.LONG TERM...Wet and cool weather will continue for the long term
period as low pressure continues to persist over the N gulf and
southern Interior. The front will continue to impact the area
bringing more rain to SE AK. Behind this front, we will see a
break in precipitation before the next system starts to bring
impacts to the area by late morning to early afternoon on Monday.
Behind this system, we will continue to see an active weather
continue to impact the panhandle with more rain and winds as low
pressures continue to work to the north and east from the N
Pacific. The system that is expected to impact the area by midweek
will need to be watched through the weekend as there is the
potential for some heavier than normal rainfall for the S
panhandle. Confidence in this idea is still low and will need to
be watched for potential impacts. Getting into the extended long
term, CPC guidance continues to show us still in a cooler than
normal and wetter than normal pattern as we head into the middle
to end of May.

&&

.AVIATION...Significant breaks in the largely elevated cloud deck
will remain across the panhandle through Saturday before cloud
cover begins building back in Saturday night through Sunday
morning ahead of the next system. Largely MVFR and VFR conditions
are likely to be interrupted in some locations Friday night
through early Saturday morning as fog develops, producing sharp
reductions in visibility and ceilings which could approach ground
level. What fog does develop is likely to have largely dissipated
by 9 AM Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Mostly quiet marine forecast for the inner channels
through Saturday featuring mostly lighter winds. Winds are not
expected to start picking up in the inner channels until Saturday
night with 20 kt southerlies for a wide area by late Saturday
night. Slightly different story for the gulf waters where the
incoming front will bring SE winds to 30 kt for most areas as
early as Saturday. Seas will also be increasing with up to 15 ft
seas for parts of the northern gulf by Saturday afternoon and
night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ318.
     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM AKDT Saturday for AKZ319>321.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-643-644-651-662>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...EAL
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...GFS

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