332
FXAK67 PAJK 282301
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...

Key Messages:
-Elevated winds up to 20kts through tonight for Clarence Straight
 and around Prince of Wales Island
-Increasing rain chances for southern panhandle into the weekend

No major changes to the short term at this time. Rain remains on
the weekend horizon as a low in the North Pacific ejects a
shortwave front across the panhandle tonight and into the weekend.
Not anticipating a washout with the front stalling and shearing
apart as it pushes over the panhandle with forecast rainfall
totals around 0.10" through Saturday night. Highest rain chances
remain over the southern panhandle between Hyder and Wrangell and
the outer coast of POW as frontal bands move onshore. Rain chances
decrease moving northward up the panhandle with surface ridging
up to 500 mb blocking any potential significant rainfall from
reaching the surface outside of an isolated sprinkle.

Looking outside this afternoon, can definitely spot the areas
that have broken out of cloud cover with highs reaching into the
upper 60s to low 70s over the northern panhandle. Looking south,
quite the opposite with cooler high temps near cooler upper 50s
to low 60s across the southern Panhandle due to expansive cloud
coverage and marine layer holding on strong. Towards tomorrow,
temperatures look to moderate into the mid 60s for much of the
area as southerly clouds stream over the panhandle.


.LONG TERM...The only real weather of note in the long term
forecast period is a weakening low that will move its way
northward in the gulf bringing a decaying front through the
panhandle Sunday. This will provide an increasing chance of
showers from south to north late Saturday night through Sunday.
Due to the nature of this system, precipitation amounts overall
are expected to be low.

Once that blows through, high pressure will gradually build in
from the south behind it by mid week. While easterly showers are
not out of the question during this time, overall shower activity
should continue to diminish due to the strengthening ridge. While
some cloud cover remains likely for the outer coast with a marine
layer, temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm
throughout the panhandle during this timeframe with highs in the
mid 60s and low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR to VFR this afternoon into the evening hours as
the marine layer along the outer coast has backed off a bit
offshore, however we expect to see more marine layer work in
tonight with IFR to potentially LIFR CIGS/VSBYS for Yakutat,
Gustavus and Sitka. We expect to see less IFR/LIFR marine layer
impacts in the southern areas tonight into tomorrow as we get a
bit more pre-frontal pressure gradient. We should also see
scattered to numerous showers working up from the south toward
morning as the weak low moves in a bit closer from the southwest
pushing the weak front into the southern areas (Prince of Wales
Is, Ketchikan, and Misty Fjords areas).

&&

.MARINE...

A weak area of low pressure will move eastward across the
eastern Gulf of Alaska through Saturday leading to elevated winds
up to 15 to 20kts within the inner channels and around Prince of
Wales Island. Winds decrease Sunday as the low pressure dissipates
over the eastern Gulf on Sunday. Another weak low pressure system
will develop west of 140 degrees W by Monday, with high pressure
becoming established over Southeast Alaska into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage due to higher
elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain warm
through the weekend, therefore the Chilkat River is expected to
remain above minor flood stage.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...JG

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