784
FXAK67 PAJK 281244
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
444 AM AKDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...Small changes to the overall forecast for the next
24 hours, mainly to limit the amount of PoP during the morning
hours in the southern panhandle. The incoming front from a low
system slowly moving eastward in the central gulf continues to
look increasingly weak. Strong surface ridging up to 500 mb looks
to block any potential significant rainfall from reaching the the
northern half of the panhandle. As for the southern half, non
impressive vorticity advection looks to bring only sprinkles.

As for temperatures, the panhandle appears to be divided between
the northern and southern half. The northern half keeps its
diurnaltrends for the next 24 hours before southerly clouds
finally work their way northward late tomorrow night. The southern
half looks moderated due to constant cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, the possibility of
some easterly showers moving over the area. Winds should remain
light with the exception of near some of these showers which could
bring some localized gusty winds. This will continue before
models continue to show that a low will enter the southern gulf
which will bring an increased chance of precipitation for the
weekend and into next week. Overall, accumulations still look to
remain low but did up the forecast rain amounts for the area.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a overall
weak system that looks to potentially persist headed into next
week which could aid in more easterly wave showers returning to
Southeast Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...Marine layer responsible for IFR to LIFR CIGS along the
gulf coast and into the S panhandle early this morning. This layer
expanding through Cross Sound and may bring a period of IFR for PAGS
over the next few hours. Low pressure over the S gulf is pushing a
dissipating front N through Haida Gwaii but convective debris from
BC is more prevalent over the SE panhandle. Generally, VFR will
dominate the forecast with sea breezes developing late morning/early
afternoon. Marine layer will surge back into the coast Fri evening
into Sat with another round of IFR expected through the morning..

&&

.MARINE... Clearing skies in British Columbia, the Yukon, and the
northern half of the panhandle leads to another day of increased
wind speeds in Icy Strait and Lynn Canal this afternoon. Sharper thermal
gradient from the retreating marine layer will increase winds
around Cape Spencer in the late morning as well. Further south
will see a small increase in winds to around 15 knots from a weak
front pushing northward from the south. Expect these winds to be
more easterly than previously advertised based on current wind
observations in the gulf. There is the possibility that areas near
Ship Island in Clarence Strait could be higher than advertised
due to gap wind potential, but confidence is low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage due to
higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures are expected to remain
warm, therefore the Chilkat River is expected to remain above
minor flood stage.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....JG
AVIATION...BC

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