Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
931 FXAK67 PAJK 241339 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 539 AM AKDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/... -On/off rain and showers continue. -Wind speeds decreasing through the forecast period. -Near normal temperatures for late September. Details: Overnight and early morning satellite imagery tells the story, a low in the northern gulf continues to sit and spin. This low won`t really go anywhere over the next 24 hours so on/off rain and showers will continue for the panhandle. Forecasted 24 hour rainfall amounts today will be mostly between .5 to 1 inch with the exception of Yakutat getting a little over an inch. Early this morning, some areas are reporting wind gusts upwards of 30 to 40 knots. But as the low weakens, wind speeds will decrease through the day today. So marine areas will have wind speeds around 5 to 15 knots and land areas will have wind speeds around 5 to 10 mph. .LONG TERM...The mid-range begins with a rain-filled start as waves of precipitation continue to rotate in around a decaying low in the Gulf. Periods of rain will remain throughout most of the area until precip chances diminish across the northern half of the panhandle on Thursday as a system approaches from the SW and cuts off the moisture support and onshore flow to the N. Operation guidance has converged on a more northerly track with this system than previously progged, which will see it move across the Dixon Entrance and then into southern panhandle. Operational guidance is still having some trouble pinning down the exact track the system thus far, but it is safe to say that rain and wind are anticipated with this low. Anticipate that the relative rain amounts will be lower than the previous system. Through much of the weekend, chances of rain diminish, though lingering moisture transport will maintain some chances of precip. This situation abruptly reverses as a potentially strong Autumn system arrives Sunday or Monday. Ensemble guidance is broadly placing the center of the low over the western Gulf, but the potential for broad areas of storm force winds over the eastern Gulf and strong or even high winds across parts of the panhandle are possible if an anticipated frontal band proves as strong as some guidance is suggesting. This system will need to be closely monitored over the next week, as minor changes in timing or track could have large variations on resulting storm strength and impacts to SE AK. && .AVIATION... Mixed bag of MVFR to VFR flight conditions and scattered rain showers overspreading the panhandle this morning as a low remains anchored within the western Gulf of Alaska. Anticipating varying flight conditions to continue through the afternoon, ranging from low end VFR to MVFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 3000 to 6000ft and intermittent vsbys down to 3 to 5sm within heaviest showers. Winds will remain elevated through the mid afternoon with sustained winds 10 to 20kts and wind gusts up to 30kts before gradually diminishing to less than 10kts through Tuesday evening into the overnight period. Likeliest locations for mechanical turbulence and LLWS through mid morning morning remains across the Gulf coast and northern panhandle TAF sites, gradually diminishing to non-impactful levels by Tuesday afternoon. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 7 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...GJS LONG TERM....GFS AVIATION...NM Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau