215
FXAK67 PAJK 101402
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
602 AM AKDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Rain is in store for SE AK as the dry weather comes
to an end, and precipitation returns to the panhandle through
Monday.

Satellite and radar imagery show cyclogenesis underway
along a weak occluding front located in the far southern panhandle
as of the time of writing. This has resulted in the formation of a
shortwave trough which has begun entering the panhandle as of the
time of writing. Radar imagery from Biorka Island indicates
increasingly stratiform precip beginning to move N, with satellite
imagery showing the associated cloud shield already reaching
across most of SE AK, and a few areas ahead of the system are
experiencing occasional bursts of rain.

This precip will move N through Monday, bringing widespread
rainfall back to the rainforest. Some wind will also move N with
it, though am not expecting anything too spectacular, with winds
in the inner channels rising to 15 to 20 kt, but largely staying
below small craft intensity barring ocean entrances, though the
outer coastal waters will prove a different story. The short wave
itself will be substantially hindered by a lack of upper level
support - the primary jet streak currently being located largely S
of 50 N, and due W of the state of Washington as of the time of
writing. Consequently, am not anticipating too much in the way of
significant precipitation totals, with QPF totals of between 0.25
and 0.75 inches of precip through tonight. The greatest totals
will be for the southern panhandle. Beyond tonight, anticipate
lingering showers for the first half of Tuesday in the wake of
the system before some clearing conditions are possible across the
northern half of the panhandle, even as another wave delivers a
glancing hit to the southern half of the area.

The forecast remains generally on track. Winds were strengthened
in the inner channels in association with the system, as well as
for some land-based locations like Juneau and Skagway. Some
adjustments were made to wind direction across the outer coastal
waters.

.LONG TERM.../Next week/...Looking ahead to next week, overall,
no real big changes are expected during the week. Once we get into
the new weather pattern, no big weather swings are expected.
The week could be summed up with "lingering leftover showers,
some breaks in the clouds, and cooler temps."

A 500mb low will meander west to east through the gulf far south of
the panhandle through the week. This would put SE AK in a showery or
on/off rain type weather pattern. So in general, kept the chances
for rain and showers in the forecast through the mid range forecast
period. Light rain overall, nothing real impactful here.

Temperatures will also cool back to below normal with increased
cloud cover.

Overall surface ridging is expected through the mid range, so winds
will be generally out of the south. At times, pressure gradients
will tighten, so inner channel winds speeds look to get to around
15 to 20 knots with some evidence of speeds up to 25 knots.

&&

.AVIATION...High overcast and otherwise VFR conditions continue for a
majority of the panhandle Monday morning. An occluded front will
bring ceilings of 2500 ft or less along with light rain to the
panhandle throughout the day Monday. Post frontal showers will then
linger Monday night into Tuesday, but can otherwise expect ceilings
to begin rising once more with persistent onshore westerly flow
developing Tuesday. No significant LLWS expected during TAF period,
though some speed shear is possible along the front for the southern
panhandle and outer coastal communities Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...STJ

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