701
FXAK67 PAJK 141304
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
504 AM AKDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...An easterly wave has made its presence known
overnight as the northern inner channels and southward to Angoon
has seen showers move in. So far rainfall has remained relatively
light, but due to the convective nature of this precipitation
moderate to heavier localized amounts remain possible through the
morning Friday. Overall expected 24 hour precipitation totals
remain unchanged from the previous forecast. As stated Thursday,
snow levels will continue to rise through the next 24 hours and
contribute to snowmelt and runoff. River rises are expected,
especially along usual problem spots such as Montana Creek, Jordan
Creek, Chilkat River, and Taiya River. However, after further
coordination with the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center,
flooding is not a concern at this time.

While the northern panhandle is dealing with showers and some low
cloud cover in places, the southern panhandle saw relatively clear
skies most of the night. This allowed for radiational cooling and
therefore some fog to develop, particularly near Klawock and later
in Petersburg. This patchy fog is expected to only last through
the mid morning hours before quickly dissipating with daytime
heating and turbulent mixing.

Speaking of daytime heating, the convection in the north
associated with the easterly wave is expected to begin a downward
trend in coverage by late morning. However, in the afternoon the
far northern inner channels during maximum daytime heating there
may be enough instability for isolated thunderstorm development,
especially near the border highways. Otherwise look forward to
warmer temperatures than Thursday in the south, while the northern
inner channels can expect similar temperatures due to lingering
showers through the morning and cloud cover through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday night/...This extended
range forecast begins with a modest warm up that will persist
through the early part of the next work week. Also on the horizon
is drier weather with easterly wave showers being blocked for the
most part by the coast mountains. Northwesterly flow over the
eastern Gulf is expected to be no stronger than 15 to 20 kts and
may produce a marine layer along the outer coast. Meanwhile,
partly cloudy conditions are forecast through at least Monday
night with winds 10 to 20 kts...strongest over Lynn Canal and
Skagway. Headed into the latter half of the forecast, guidance is
starting to show a return to more normal temperatures and the
potential for above normal precipitation. This will have to be
watched over the weekend and into next week to see if confidence
in this idea increases or not.

&&

.AVIATION...A mixed bag of conditions across the panhandle this
morning depending on where you are. Northern inner channels have
rain from an easterly wave that moved in overnight. Still have VFR
conditions there, but ceilings may descend to MVFR conditions of
2500 feet later this morning. Conditions should improve tonight as
the rain moves out of the area. Meanwhile the southern half of
the panhandle, from Frederick Sound southward, has VFR conditions,
but that has just allowed some ground fog to develop in certain
areas (Klawock and Petersburg as well as various other areas based
on satellite imagery). That fog should diminish by 8 am at the
latest leaving VFR conditions for the rest of the day there. VFR
conditions are expected for most areas tonight into Saturday, but
may have to watch out for fog again in some areas Saturday
morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....JG/SF
AVIATION...EAL

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