185
FXUS61 KAKQ 250818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
418 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will affect western portions of the region
this afternoon into this evening. A warm front followed by a
cold front will affect the area Sunday afternoon through Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, dry weather was across the region, but the
sky ranged from mostly clear to cloudy due to areas of fog (some
dense) and BKN/OVC stratus. Temps were ranging through the 60s
into the lower 70s.

Areas of fog (some dense) and BKN/OVC stratus will prevail in
many locations until 12/13Z this morning. Will monitor
observations in the next hour or two to see if dense fog becomes
more widespread, and may need a Dense Fog Advisory. Otherwise,
the sky should become at least partly sunny from later this
morning into early this evening. Warm and humid with highs ranging
through the 80s (mid to upper 80s inland/Piedmont). A sfc
trough will affect wrn portions of the region this aftn into
this evening, possibly triggering isolated to sctd showers or
tstms. No severe wx is expected. Any remnant showers or tstms
will end by late this evening, with a mostly clear to partly
cloudy sky tonight. Lows in the lower to mid 60s with at least
some additional potential for fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

- More widespread thunderstorms expected Memorial Day with a
  cold front. A few storms could be strong to severe.

A shortwave slides from the OH River Valley into the Great
Lakes Sunday. However, coverage of storms again looks on the low
side given the lack of any sfc triggers. Will have 20% PoPs for
the wrn 2/3rds of the area and 15% or less further E. Highs
will be in the mid-upper 80s, with perhaps a few readings
approaching 90F across interior VA and NC.

Anomalous upper troughing will push a cold front toward the region
on Monday (Memorial Day). This favors higher coverage of showers and
storms, with some potential for strong-severe storms if the FROPA
timing is aligned with the daytime heating window. GFS/ECMWF both
show surface-based CAPE increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg, combined with
30-40 kt of effective shear. Robust southerly flow and warm
advection should push most areas into the mid-upper 80s (low 80s
eastern shore) for highs. Highest coverage of convection shifts E/SE
into the evening hours Sunday, with continuing chances for
strong/severe storms. Rain should be off the coast by the morning
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Trending more sensible and cooler for the middle and end of
  next week.

A relatively deep trough will remain positioned over the ern
CONUS through the end of the week. Highs Tue still in the 80s
with any appreciable "cold" advection holding off until
Wednesday. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s. With disturbances
pivoting through the trough, can`t rule out isolated showers or
storms at times (especially Tue and Wed). Will have slight chc
PoPs. It will trend cooler by Thursday and Friday with highs
back into the 70s areawide. Overnight Tue night in the low-mid
60s and in the 50s Wed/Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...

Main concern at all TAF sites through 12-13z this morning will
be for IFR/LIFR CIGs and/or VSBYS from fog. Expect conditions to
improve to VFR at all sites by 14/15z. Mainly VFR conditions
will prevail from midday today into Sun morning. However,
isolated shower/storm could affect RIC or possibly SBY later
today into this evening, which may produce brief sub-VFR
conditions.

Outlook: Widely sctd to sctd showers/storms will then be possible
later Sun into Mon evening. Outside of storms, expecting mainly
VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially each afternoon and
  evening) through Memorial Day.

Benign marine conditions across the local waters early this
morning, with high pressure in place over the region. Winds are
NNW 5-10 kt winds this morning with waves 1 ft or less and seas
1-2 ft. Winds remain light this morning, with afternoon
seabreeze circulations likely to veer winds around to become
onshore, with south to southeast winds returning in the later
afternoon and evening/late night hours. This same summer-like
pattern will repeat through the holiday weekend. There will
also be the chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms each day.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday, associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have
continued to keep the forecast below SCA criteria. Winds veer
around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek. Some
more widespread showers and storms will be possible on Memorial
Day (Monday) ahead of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell
behind that system that could briefly bring some 5 foot seas by
Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as winds turn back
offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches through the weekend, with moderate
rip risk for northern beaches on Monday with building seas and
more of a shore normal component to wave energy.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...SW/TMG
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ERI/MAM