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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151203
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
703 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northeast up the Southeast and Mid
Atlantic coasts today, and then lift toward the New England
coast tonight. High pressure returns late tonight into Friday
and remains over the region through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 405 AM EST Thursday...

The current surface analysis places 1038mb high pressure
centered over nrn New England and 1012mb low pressure of the GA
coast. Meanwhile, GOES wv imagery places an upper low over the
mid- Mississippi Valley, with another area of surface low
pressure over ern TN. This upper low is expected to move ewd
today approaching the wrn slopes of the Appalachians by later
this aftn. As this occurs, the area of low pressure off the
coast will track NE along the coast and deepen today as it
reaches the VA Capes by later this aftn. Light rain (and some
embedded sleet over the Piedmont) has reached the area early
this morning, and pcpn intensity will increase later this
morning into the aftn as deep moisture/lift track into the area.
A wintry mix (SN/PL/FZRA) is expected to become more prevalent
for a 3-6hr period over the NW Piedmont as the column cool with
increasing pcpn intensity this morning. Surface T/Td will
generally settle around 32/32F for the far NW Piedmont, which
will result in minimal snow/ice accum especially given generally
warm ground temperatures. Nevertheless, elevated surface (such
a bridges and overpasses) could become slick and a winter
weather advisory is in effect. Pcpn is all rain by this aftn
with QPF generally 1-2" across the region. This combined with
rain from earlier in the week will result in a flood risk for
creeks, streams, and poor drainage areas and a flood watch is in
effect.

Temperatures early this morning range from the low/mid 30s from
the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore, with low 50s over the SE.
Temperatures are actually expected to drop a few degrees over
the Piedmont through the morning, then rise a few degrees by
aftn, while temperatures rise along the coast. Highs today range
from the mid 30s over the NW Piedmont, to the mid 40s for
central VA, to the 50s from s-central VA to the Ern Shore, and
mid 60s for coastal SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 405 AM EST Thursday...

Surface low pressure is forecast to be located along the
Delmarva coast by this evening, as the upper system remains to
the W over the central Appalachians. The low then moves toward
Long Island late tonight/early Friday morning and occludes. Rain
will gradually taper to showers this evening as the upper
system tracks across the nrn Mid-Atlantic, with drier air
arriving from the WNW as the low becomes stacked NE of the local
area. Clearing is expected SW-NE as drier air arrives with lows
ranging from the low 30s W to the low/mid 40s along the coast.

High pressure returns Friday into Saturday with a mostly
clear/sunny sky. Temperatures will remain below seasonal
averages with a trough over the East Coast with highs generally
in the 50s Friday/Saturday and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s
for coastal SE VA/NE NC Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EST Wednesday...

Much quieter weather expected during the extended period. Sfc high
pressure centered over the area early Sunday morning weakens during
the day on Sun, with dry/seasonable weather expected throughout the
area. A weak upper-level shortwave approaches the area on late
Sunday-Monday (coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way
of rain expected with the FROPA, but have PoPs of 15-30% for eastern
portions of the area late Sun night-Mon (best rain chances will be
in coastal NE NC). NW flow aloft will prevail from Mon PM through at
least midweek, with mainly dry weather and temperatures a few
degrees below seasonal averages. Another weak upper level shortwave
may swing through the Mid-Atlantic on Wed. The GFS is showing a few
showers moving across the area, but the ECMWF/CMC keep us dry.
Decided not to add any mention of rain to the forecast attm.

Forecast Highs Sunday range from the low-mid 50s NW to around 60 in
in SE VA/NE NC. The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs
on Mon will still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue/Wed, with
highs in the upper 40s to near 50 north/mid 50s south. Lows Sunday
night in the mid-upper 30s inland/low-mid 40s near the coast. Cooler
on both Monday and Tuesday night with lows ranging from ~30 NW to
~40 in coastal SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 AM EST Wednesday...

1038mb high pressure is located over New England as of 12z,
with low pressure deepening and moving newd off the SC coast.
Light rain is spreading across the area, with a mix ice pellets
possible W of RIC. Cigs are MVFR/VFR with vsby greater than
6sm. The low pressure system off the coast will continue
to track up the East Coast today. Periods of moderate to heavy
rain are expected to overspread the region around and after 12z.
MVFR/IFR vsby is expected in rain today, with cigs falling to
IFR later this morning (earliest at RIC/ECG). A line of heavy
rain with a slight chc of tstms is expected to affect ECG around
the 19-22z timeframe today. Elsewhere, expect rain to end from
SW- NE late this aftn through this evening. A NE wind will
increase to 10-15kt inland to 15-25kt along the coast, with
gusts as high as 35kt along the coast, and ~20kt inland. Cigs
are expected to remain IFR this evening after the rain ends.
Drier air arrives from the W later tonight with the wind
becoming W 10-15kt with gusts ~20kt and conditions are expected
to improve rapidly after 06z.

High pressure prevails Friday through Monday with VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EST Thursday...

Early this morning, observations show NE winds of around 15 to
25 knots over the waters. Seas range from 5 to 7 feet while
waves in the Bay range from 3 to 4 feet. Conditions will begin
to rapidly deteriorate this morning from south to north as an
area of low pressure intensifies along the Carolina coast and
lifts NNE with strong high pressure over New England.

Gusts to gale force likely begin by 6 AM across the southern
waters and spread north through the morning hours. E/NE winds
will likely gust to 35 to 40 knots in the Bay and southern
coastal waters, and a little higher to 40 to 45 knots on the
ocean north of Cape Charles. Seas will increase to 8 to 12 feet
south and 10 to 15 feet by late Thursday afternoon/evening off
the Eastern Shore. Waves in the bay will average 4 to 6 feet
with higher waves right at the mouth of the Bay.

A brief lull in the wind is expected later this evening and
into tonight as the area of low pressure moves off the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Winds turn to the W/NW Thursday night into
Friday morning, likely gusting to gale force for the coastal
waters and Bay. Gusts will once again reach 35 to 40 knots over
the coastal waters/Bay with higher gusts to 45 knots out 20 nm.
Winds will likely be highest in the 06-12Z period over the
waters before slowly diminishing through Friday morning. As a
result of newest wind probabilities and model guidance, opted to
extend the Gale Warning for the southern coastal waters and Bay
into Friday morning. Left headlines in the rivers and Currituck
Sound as is and will let the day shift evaluate the need for
any potential upgrades based on the latest data. Regardless,
winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range into Friday
afternoon.

Winds and seas will remain stirred up into early Saturday
morning, likely requiring additional SCA headlines after the
Gale Warnings expire. Calmer conditions return for the weekend
as high pressure settles back over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 430 AM EST Thursday...

River flood warnings remain in effect for Stony Creek on the
Nottoway, and Mattoax on the Appomattox, Lawrenceville on the
Meherrin and Sebrell on the Nottoway. Expect additional rises
and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 AM EST Thursday...

Strong surge of E/NE winds will cause tidal departures to
rapidly increase this morning. However, tidal departures are
currently minimal (and actually negative in upper portions of
the Bay). Thus, even with 1.5 to 2 ft rises in departures from
current levels, most locations will only approach or just barely
get to minor flood thresholds. The high tide of concern will
not be until this afternoon (or perhaps the following tide
early fri morning for the Ocean side of the MD eastern shore).
Have opted not to issue any coastal flood advisories at this
time and will continue to monitor trends this morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021>025.
     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday
     for MDZ025.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for MDZ024-025.
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ017-102.
VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     VAZ048-060-061-509.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ095-098-100-
     525.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for VAZ098.
     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday
     for VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening
     for VAZ099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633-635-636.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ637.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MRD
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MRD
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...AJB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ