622
FXUS61 KAKQ 192055
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
355 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring a chance for rain and snow to
the area into this evening. Much colder weather is expected
tonight into the middle of the week. A low pressure system
offshore of the Southeast coast could also bring accumulating
snow to southeastern portions of the area later Tuesday into
Wednesday. Another low pressure system could bring additional
winter weather Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 355 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Rain/drizzle expected for most of the area this afternoon,
transitioning to a rain/snow mix across the northern half of the
area later this afternoon and evening. A light snow accumulation
remains possible.

- Becoming blustery and cold tonight.

This afternoon, ~1003 mb low pressure is centered across southeast
Virginia. This low will continue to quickly lift off to the
northeast this evening into tonight, with much colder air filtering
in from the northwest behind it. Current observations show
widespread light rain/drizzle and patchy fog across much of the
region. Temperatures have started to drop across our northwest areas
(currently mid 30s) and will continue to do so this evening.
Observations just north and west of our area (Charlottesville and
Orange) have been reporting winter precipitation, thus would expect
our north western counties to begin to transition over to a wintry
mix or snow shortly. The rain/snow mix will continue to push
southeast this evening before all precipitation quickly comes to an
end ~8 PM. Still not expecting much in regards to snow
accumulations, with ~0.5" possible (locally up to an inch) from
northern Louisa to Caroline and up to Dorchester County MD. Plain
rain is expected SE of a line extending from Crewe/Blackstone to
Richmond to Salisbury, including all of Hampton Roads and NE NC.

Skies quickly clear out tonight from west to east, with mostly clear
skies expected. A very cold airmass also filters into the region as
the low departs offshore. Low temperatures tonight will generally
range from the around 20 into the lower 20s for much of the area,
with upper teens possible across the NW/typically colder spots and
mid to upper 20s across the SE and at the immediate coast. Winds
will also stay elevated tonight so wind chills fall into the teens
areawide with some single digits possible across the W/NW and on
northern portions of the MD Eastern Shore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- The winter weather potential and snow amounts have trended lower
for Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the best chances for winter
weather confined to southeastern portions of the area.

- Very cold temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

Still monitoring a possible winter weather threat later Tuesday into
Wednesday, but the theme over the past 24 hours or so with the model
guidance has been drier across the local area, with the heaviest
precipitation shunted offshore and to our south. There remains a
consistent signal that some sort of precip shield will extend from
the Deep South into at least some part of Carolinas Tuesday night
into the very early part of Wednesday in the favorable synoptic
ascent region downstream of the parent shortwave.  This disturbance
is also expected to eventually kick off low pressure formation near
the Southeast coast Tuesday night. The drier trend (locally)
continues with the 12z/19 suite of models and ensemble guidance,
with pretty much every piece of guidance continuing to trend lower
with any potential snow accumulation. The GEFS remains the least
excited, with the mean snowfall accumulation around ~0.1-0.5" for
far southeastern portions of the area and 0" for the remainder of
the area. The EPS is more aggressive than the GEFS, but
continues to trend drier each run. The EPS shows a mean snowfall
accumulation of ~1-2" across northeast NC into southeast VA.
The operational GFS and ECMWF are not much higher in regards to
accumulations, with the GFS showing little to no accumulation
across the area and the ECMWF showing ~0.5" across the
southeastern half of the area. As a result, have continued to
decrease snow amounts, with 0.5" to 1" across southside Hampton
Roads into northeast North Carolina and 1-2" along the immediate
coast of far southeast Virginia into the northern OBX and far
eastern portions of North Carolina.

As discussed earlier, should there be precipitation, the strong high
to the N will favor all snow for the entire area (as the 850 mb 0 C
line remains displaced well to our S). The very cold air will also
result in atypical SLRs in areas where snow does fall with 15:1 or
even 20:1 ratios possible across the region. Winter Storm Watches
are not looking overly likely at this point if the current trend
holds. There is still the potential for some changes and future
model trends could inch the precip shield back to the W some. This
means everyone should monitor the latest forecasts and realize that
while the threat for impactful winter weather has decreased, the
threat still has not completely diminished.

The other story big weather story will be the very cold temperatures
early this week. Monday will see highs only in the mid to upper 20s
across the north and northwest to the low to mid 30s across the east
and southeast. Even colder Tuesday with highs below freezing for
most of the area, and only in the mid 20s across much of the
northern half of the area. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the
stretch, with temperatures struggling to get out of the 20s
everywhere. Overnight lows will be in the lower teens or single
digits for much of the area. Wind chills may drop into the lower
single digits in spots on Monday night and lower single digits to
potentially below zero Tuesday night. Cold Weather headlines will
very likely be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Another coastal low potentially brings additional wintry precip
near the area Thursday into Friday, but confidence remains very low
at this time.

- Temperatures gradually moderate to end the week and into next
weekend.

A digging trough over the central CONUS could spark another low
pressure system near our coast Thursday into Friday. There remains a
 very large spread across the guidance and ensembles regarding where
the low develops and where it tracks. The 19/12z ECMWF still keeps
it offshore, while the GFS and CMC remain closer to shore and have
precip over the area. Given low-level cold air in place, additional
winter wx could be possible. Model thermal profiles seem to mainly
support snow or freezing rain inland and have have these as the
dominant p-types there. Rain is favored along the coast. Still,
given the continued large spread across the guidance, PoPs are ~30%
at most and highest at the coast.

It currently looks dry for next weekend with high pressure settling
near the area. Rising upper heights also indicate temps may warm to
near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

IFR (locally LIFR) CIGs expected areawide this afternoon through
this evening as low pressure moves north from the Carolinas and
over the local area. Light to moderate precip also increases in
coverage this afternoon, with rain, drizzle, and patchy fog
contributing to lowered VSBYs. Rain likely changes to a
rain/snow mix in the later afternoon and evening across the
Piedmont, moving further E/SE toward RIC and SBY by 22/23z.
Precip tapers off quickly from W to E after 00z. CIGs also
gradually improve overnight and VFR should return by ~03-06z
Monday. NW winds also become blustery tonight through Monday
morning.

Outlook: Remaining dry with VFR for Monday and most of Tuesday,
with a chance for snow, mainly at the coast, returning late
Tuesday through Wednesday. It should be noted that forecast
confidence in this late Tue/Wed timeframe remains quite low at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front crosses the waters this evening. Gale
  Warnings are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic
  coastal waters north of the VA/NC border.

- Very cold temperatures and gusty winds will result in the potential
  for light to moderate freezing spray tonight into Monday.

Afternoon analysis shows deepening low pressure over the area which
will pull away from the coast this evening, dragging a strong cold
front across the local waters. Winds are variable 5-10 kt with waves
in the bay 1-2 ft and seas offshore running 3-4 ft.

Strong cold front translates SE across the waters late this
afternoon into the evening with strong CAA and robust pressure rises
of 5-8mb/3hrs. Winds become NW and increase to 25-30 kt with gusts
to 35-40 kt in the bay and Atlantic waters north of the VA/NC
border. Strongest winds will be rather short-lived, lasting only
around 3-6 hours at any one location. Winds will be 20-25 with gusts
to 30 kt in the rivers and Currituck Sound/adjacent NC coastal
waters, where Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Waves build to 3-
5 ft tonight but quickly fall back into the 2-3 ft range by sunrise
tomorrow. Offshore/NW winds will allow seas to build to 5-7 ft
N and 4-6 ft S tonight into the first half of Monday. Gale
Warnings are set to end around sunrise on Monday, replaced by
SCA headlines thereafter. A Freezing Spray Advisory has been issued
for the Rappahannock, York, and James Rivers as well as for the
Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic coastal waters N of Cape Charles
Light from tonight into Monday. Winds decrease through the
morning hours with most locations falling below SCA thresholds
by the afternoon. Our northern Ches Bay and Atlantic zones may
need to extended a few hours into the afternoon depending on how
quickly winds and seas fall off. High pressure builds into the
region from the west Monday night and Tuesday. The next system
develops across the Gulf Coast on Tuesday and lifts ENE and off
the Southeast coast Wednesday. Trends toward a weaker and more
suppressed low lend some uncertainty to the wind forecast for
the midweek period. Regardless, the pressure gradient will
compress enough for a period of SCA conditions across the local
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday with potential for
additional freezing spray concerns as cold air remains
entrenched across the region. Another area of low pressure may
develop near shore and lift NE by late in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
     654-656.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>638.
     Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR