Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231940
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
340 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area for the weekend. Low
pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a trailing cold
front crossing the area Monday night. Cool high pressure builds
across the area from the north on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure building into the region will keep sensible weather
quiet tonight under clear skies. Very good mixing today have yielded
dew points in the single digits across the Piedmont and teens
elsewhere. As the high moves overhead expect winds to diminish
tonight, and combined with the low dew points and clear skies, temps
should drop into the upper 20, except low-mid 30s closer to the
coast and in the metro areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Another quiet day on Sunday, although the high will shift offshore
in response to the next system moving eastward from the Great Lakes.
With SW flow developing and rising heights, expect highs to warm
well into the 60s and approaching 70 despite some high clouds moving
in late. Another day of strong mixing so it will be another day with
low relative humidities as low as 20 pct across the Piedmont.

The surface cold front approaches the area later Sunday night and
passes through the region late Monday into Monday evening.
Meanwhile, a surface low forms along the front in the TN valley
Monday morning. Isentropic lift/WAA associated with this low
will allow for pcpn to spread into the area mainly Monday
afternoon, but the strong push from the north should allow the
front to quickly pass through the area by Monday evening, with
the rain also quickly ending across the north Monday evening.
With the front stalling out initially Monday night as the low
moves along it, will need to maintain PoPs through the night
across the south with the best chances Mon evening. Will go with
likely pops Monday afternoon across much of the area expect the
SE where chance pops will be maintained. Likely pops Monday
evening south, but drying out from N to S overnight as the high
builds southward. Another fairly mild day ahead of the front
Monday despite clouds and increasing chances for rain, with
temps in the 60s.

Areas near the coast will also become a little windy Monday night
with the low to the south and the strong high to the north yielding
a tight pres gradient. Could not rule out some gusts to 30-35 mph
Monday night especially close to the coast in N-NW flow.

Tuesday looks to be generally dry with the high building to the
north of the area. However, it will be quiet chilly despite partly-
mostly sunny skies with highs generally in the upper 40s in N-NE
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The extended looks quiet as Canadian high pressure will build
across much of the eastern 1/3 of the country Wednesday-Friday.
With the continued trough over the east coast, it will start out
cool Wednesday with highs only in the low 50s. However, this
trough will gradually shift offshore by the end of the week as
the next deep trough develops over the plains. This will allow
for broad southwesterly flow to develop by Friday/Saturday
yielding above normal temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Will
keep a dry forecast through Saturday, although it should be
noted that the GFS is a little faster with the system next
weekend compared to the GEM and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions expected through Sunday with high pressure in
control. Gusty W-NW winds will continue this afternoon with some
gusts of 25kt especially at RIC and SBY. Winds decrease to less
than 5 kt this evening as the high builds overhead. Winds turn
SW on Sunday.

Outlook:
Low pressure along with a strong trailing cold front approaches
from the NW Monday, and crosses the area Monday aftn and night,
with high pressure building in from the N Tuesday. There is a
likelihood for degraded flight conditions Monday night into the
day on Tuesday, with VFR returning later Tue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

Winds/waves/seas will continue to trend downward through the
late afternoon and early evening so that all SCAs can be dropped
at 4 pm (except north of Parramore Island where SCAs will
continue thru 6 pm). Will issue an MWS for lingering gusts
around 20 kt through 5-6 pm for the Rivers and Bay.

Generally expecting quiet marine conditions tonight and Sunday as
northwesterly winds veer around to southwesterly ahead of the next
area of low pressure approaching from the west. Winds become
southwest 10-15 knots Monday morning before a strong cold front
crosses the waters Monday afternoon and early evening, turning
winds to the NNE. Strong north and northeast flow will follow
the frontal passage with SCAs likely Monday night and Tuesday
and probably lingering into Wednesday. Confidence is also
increasing for Gale conditions on Tuesday from Parramore Island
south, including the mouth of the Bay and Currituck Sound. Seas
will build considerably (5-7 feet N and 7-10 feet S) with stout
NE winds on Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...JDM



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