Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 281610
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1210 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary laying across North Carolina early this
morning, will slowly lift back north as a warm front later this
morning into Sunday morning. A cold front will cross the area
from the west northwest late Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high
pressure will build into the area for Monday and Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Saturday...

Latest weather analysis reveals a potent upper level trough over
the central plains at midday, with the associated sfc low over
NE KS/SE NE. The associated warm front extends east across the
Ohio Valley into the lower Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon,
with regional radar mosaic showing a swath of light to moderate
rainfall across the upper eastern shore up into the northeast
CONUS. Locally, showers from early this morning have pushed
offshore...with clouds scouring out quickly over the central and
southern portions of the local area. Temperatures are already
well into the 70s across the hwy 58 corridor in far southern VA
and into NC...with 50s to mid 60s over central VA over to the
northern neck and lower MD eastern shore.

Temps will warm quickly this afternoon for most of the area, as
the low over the plains states slides NE, which will serve to
shunt the warm front farther north into this evening. Have
pushed temps up toward the high end of the guidance envelope
(hi-res HRRRX and NAM Nest blend). Forecasted high temps mainly
the mid 70s to mid 80s along and south of Interstate 64.
Farther north, highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s over the
northern neck and eastern shore (coolest over Lwr MD).

Frontal boundary becomes hung up north of KRIC tonight. Therefore
expect continued low clouds/fog and drizzle over the VA nrn
neck and the Lwr MD and VA ern shore tonight into mid morning
Sun before the entire area is in the warm sector. Farther south,
partly to mostly clear and mild. Temps won`t fall very far this
evening...and will mainly range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

A cold front will then approach and push into the region from
the WNW during Sun. Decent SW sfc winds in advance of the front
combined with at least some sunshine, will help temps climb into
the mid to upper 80s west of the Ches Bay, while readings over
the Lower MD and VA ern shore will be cooler at 75 to 80. Ocean
City may only reach around 70. Only widely sctd showers and
possibly a tstm will develop ahead of the front in the aftn into
the evening, as low level moisture will be limited. The front
will push off the coast Sun night, with west winds behind the
boundary ushering in drier air and a clearing sky. Lows Sun
night ranging through the 50s to near 60.

Dry wx expected Mon and Mon night. Generally mostly sunny on Mon
with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s (may end up
warmer). Mostly clear or partly cloudy Mon night with lows in
the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

The pattern begins to change dramatically Tuesday as a strong
southern stream system move across Arkansas and Tennessee and
towards the mid Atlantic midweek. Clouds will rapidly increase
Tuesday ahead of the storm system, though things will remain and
rain chances quickly ramp back up for Tuesday with increasing rain
chances especially through Tuesday afternoon with moisture spreading
in form the south and west. Both the GFS and ECMWF are fairly
amplified system though there are slight timing differences in
regards to how fast rain moves in. As of snow expect rain Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday as the surface low intensifies
across the Carolinas and then moves up along the coast. This looks
to be a significant shot of rainfall especially across Central VA to
the coast. Rain should start to taper off during the day Wednesday
depending on the exact timing and movement of the storms systems.
Even in the strong northerly flow behind the system some lingering
light rain may persist through a goof portion of Wednesday especially
in the east and close to the Bay and coast.

Temperatures Tuesday will be tricky depending on the timing of the
system, but for now highs look to be in the lower 60s. Temperatures
cool some behind the system with the north flow Wednesday night and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Sctd rain showers will continue to affect mainly NNE portions
of the area today into early this evening, as frontal boundary
laying across NC early this morning, will slowly lift back north
as a warm front. With E or SE winds in place over the area,
expect MVFR or IFR CIGs at all the TAF sites later this morning
into this aftn. Once IFR CIGs develop at SBY by 16Z today,
expect them to last into early Sun morning, along with sctd
showers or drizzle. CIGs will first lift and SCT out across
NE NC (ECG) to VFR by early aftn, and improve from south to
north as the front begins to lifts through the day. Also, could
be some patchy fog, especially at ECG, due to ESE winds off the
water/sound.

Outlook: A cold front will pass through late Sun into Sun evening
with widely scattered showers possible. Dry/VFR conditions
expected Sun night and Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

Weak high pressure is located over New England early this morning,
with a frontal boundary over central and ern NC. The wind is E
5-10kt, with seas ranging from ~3ft N to 3-4ft S. The wind is
expected to increase to 10-15kt from the E or ESE through this
morning as some tightening of the pressure gradient is expected.
By this aftn, an E wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt off
the MD coast, and this is expected to produce seas ~5ft.
Therefore, SCA headlines have been issued from Chincoteague to
Fenwick Is. from noon through 6 pm. Elsewhere, the wind is
expected to decrease and become SSE as the boundary lifts N as a
warm front. The boundary remains in vicinity of the region
tonight, with the wind becoming very light for much of the area,
with the exception of SW 10-15kt for the ocean S of Cape
Charles. Seas subside to 2-3ft. The warm front continues to lift
nwd Sunday with the wind becoming SSW 10- 15kt for the entire
area. A cold front crosses the region Sunday night, with the
wind shifting to W with speeds of 10-15kt Sunday night into
Monday. A cold front drops across the region Sunday night with a
sub-SCA NNW surge. Weak high pressure builds N of the region
Tuesday. Low pressure impacts the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with SCA conditions likely, and the potential for
gale conditions for at least a portion of the marine area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/RHR



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