Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 162335
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
735 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore today as a cold front approaches
from the west. The front will cross the region by Tuesday
night, with high pressure building in for Wednesday and
Thursday. A little more unsettled for the weekend with an
upper trough just west of the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Similar to yesterday, thunderstorms have once again developed
over the Blue Ridge, with help from a weak sfc trough. With the
mean flow once again generally out of the west, see no reason
why scattered storms will not move off the ridge and into the
Piedmont late this afternoon into this evening. As such, have
maintained scattered pops W-NW of RIC and slight chance for the
remainder of the area west of I-95. Otherwise, mild and humid
tonight with partly cloudy skies. Lows generally in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

The cold front over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes will move
through the middle Atlantic late Tue aftn into Tuesday night.
There is a suggestion from both the NAM and GFS that there will
be a split of precipitation over the area with an area of
showers/storms across the north associated with a weak low
developing along the front, with another area further SE
associated with the better instability. This may leave the far
southern Piedmont without much in the way of precip tomorrow.
Cannot remove pops from this area, but will lower to chance
PoPs. Despite MLCAPE values close to 1000 j/kg, the deep layer
winds are generally 30 kt or less, so severe weather is not
expected. Again, could be locally heavy rainfall given the high
precipitable water values, but not excessive as the frontal
speed will be allowing the storms to move along to the SE.

Drying quickly moves in from the NW Tue night into Wed behind
the front as broad high pressure extends from the Great Lakes
into New England and the Middle Atlantic. Wed/Thu should be
pleasant days with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Highs
in the mid-upr 80s during the day, with lows dropping back into
the 60s at night. Would not be shocked to see upper 50s in the
Piedmont Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

The weekend into early next week looks somewhat unsettled as a
strong upper trough over the northern plains dives into the Ohio
Valley for the weekend and closes off. This allows for the weak
short wave ridge over the area Friday to move off the coast
leading to south- southwest flow across the area. Although
showers/storms cannot be ruled out on Saturday, it seems like if
there would be a dry day it would be Saturday with the low
still well to the NW leading to somewhat downslope flow.
However, Sunday into Monday will be unsettled as the upper low
slowly moves east yielding periods of showers/storms. No major
tropical connection so rainfall is not expected to be excessive.
Temps generally close to normal for this time of year -
generally in the upper 80s/lower 90s during the day and upper
60s- mid 70s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Have kept VFR conditions in place through the 00Z TAF period.
Basically not expecting anything more then SCT-BKN mid/high
clouds through early afternoon Tuesday. A cold front approaches
from the west by Tuesday afternoon leading to widespread shwr/tstm
development into Tuesday night. While severe wx is not
expected, localized MVFR or IFR conditions will be possible in
the heaviest shwrs/tstms late Tues aftn/eve. Due to the late
arrival of said pcpn, have generally kept dry conditions in all
but KRIC thru the period. SW winds will become gusty (~20kt)
ahead of the cold front Tues afternoon.

Outlook:
The cold front passes through Tuesday night, leading to high
pressure and VFR conditions Wed into Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure off the SE US coast will continue to slowly edge
away from the coast. This is producing southerly winds across
the region, which have begun to increase to around 10 - 15 kt in
the last couple of hours. This is the result of the pressure
gradient beginning to tighten as a cold front is pushing into
the Ohio Valley. The winds should increase to around 15 KT on
the Chesapeake Bay tonight and near 20 KT on the coastal waters.
But with the airmass warming the mixing should be less tonight
than the last few nights. Expect waves to kick up to around 2 KT
on the Bay and 3-4 FT on the coastal waters. Conditions should
remain just below SCA levels.

The cold front will move across the water later Tuesday into
Tuesday evening. The southwest flow will continue, but the wind
should not be as strong as tonight. Behind the front should see
a good surge of northerly to northeasterly flow late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Again winds will be borderline for
SCA conditions. By Wed afternoon, the surface high should have
built into the region and winds will begin to diminish. This
area of high pressure will remain in control of the weather into
the day on Friday, before another system arrives for the weekend
with unsettled conditions.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX radar is inoperable due to a failure of the motor. Earliest
return to service is Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JDM/MRD
MARINE...ESS
EQUIPMENT...AKQ



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