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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
906 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered across the southeastern states
through Monday. A strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday,
with high pressure building in from the north Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis indicating a weak sfc trough across the area
with a strong upper level ridge centered from the southern
Plains to the mid-Atlantic region. One cluster of tstms is
ongoing over northern VA but generally looks to be struggling to
hold together while moving slowly ESE. Will have 15-20% PoPs
over the far NE portion of the CWA though around midnight in
case this is able to maintain itself, otherwise just mostly
clear and hot with temperatures still holding mostly in the mid
80s to around 90F as of 9pm (locally even a few lower 90s in the
more urban areas of SE VA w/ heat indices still ~105F). It is
a bit cooler W of I-95 where most areas are in the lower 80s.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s over the Piedmont, and
75-80F elsewhere (some lower possible urban areas of SE VA and
the eastern shore with heat index values not much below 85-90F).
Certainly a good shot at challenging or setting new record high
mins for Sun 7/21 (see climate section).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

H5 ridge remains strong enough to keep the excessive heat going and
limit any convection thru 21Z Sun. Models show sct convection dvlpng
along a sfc trof across the Blue Ridge then drifting se into the wrn
Piedmont late. Will maintain slight chc PoPs across wrn most
zones. Otw...mstly sunny, hot/humid. Highs mid 90s-lwr 100s with
HI values 110-115, highest east of I95.

Still very warm/humid Sun night. Sct convection across the nrn half
of the fa due to a weak trof moving east across nrn VA. Lows 75-80,
warmest once again in urban areas.

H5 ridge begins to break down Mon as a cold front approaches from
the NW. Another mstly sunny/hot day before any convection
develops in the aftn. Highs in the mid-upr 90s. Grids would
suggest a heat advsry will be needed along and east of I85 for
heat index values 105-110. Dew points may mix out across the
Piedmont holding HI`s to arnd 100. Convection develops to the NW
then moves se across the region in the aftn. Lowered PoPs with
20-40% across the nw two thirds of the local area, remaining dry
across the se.

Cold front apprchs Mon night with showers/tstms overspreading
the fa north to south thru the night. Will carry high chc to
likely PoPs attm. Lows upr 60s NW to mid-upr 70s se.

Cold front slowly crosses tracks se across the area Tue. Models show
copious amounts of moisture with this bndry along with enough
lift to produce some mdt to hvy rainfall. This will end the
heatwave with highs upr 70s west to mid 80s se.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Saturday...

The upper trough and associated cold front slide southeast of the
area late Tuesday through Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in
fairly good agreement with the timing of the frontal passage, with
the majority of any precipitation coming to an from NW to SE through
the day on Wednesday. The front likely lingers just to the SE of the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. As a result, have a slight chance
for a shower or storm across the far SE into the day on Thursday.
High pressure will be building in from the north behind the front,
leading to drier conditions across the entire region late this week
and into next weekend. Wednesday will start out as the coolest day
of the forecast period with highs in the low to mid 80s across much
of the area. Low temperatures will dip back into the 60s with even
some upper 50s across the NW Wednesday night. A gradual warming
trend is anticipated Thursday and Friday with temperatures climbing
back into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will also trend
warmer with values in the mid to upper 60s (lower 70s along the
immediate coast).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 00z TAF
period with only FEW to SCT cumulus Sunday afternoon. WSW winds
in the 5 to 10 kt range will continue into the day on Sunday.

OUTLOOK: Upper level ridge slowly breaks down Sunday night and
Monday, allowing for a better coverage of late day/evening
convection over the Piedmont. A cold front approaches and drops
across the area erly Tuesday. High probability for showers/tstms
late Mon night into Tuesday as that front is slow to push to
the east and south.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft remains anchored off
the coast with southwesterly flow in place across the region. Winds
are somewhat variable with 5-10 knots noted across the Bay and 5-15
knots for the offshore zones. Waves are around 1 ft and seas are
running 2-3 ft.

SSW winds mainly 5-15 kt will continue into Monday night, as high
pressure remains off the SE coast. Large scale ridging will begin to
break down on Monday, as a surface trough precedes an upper level
disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. SW winds will increase
as the pressure gradient begins to tighten Mon aftn into Mon night,
generally 10-20 kt over the waters, highest in the srn Ches Bay,
Currituck Sound and coastal waters. Waves will build to around 2 ft,
while seas will build to 3-4 ft S and 4-5 ft in the nrn three
coastal zns. A period of showers and storms will accompany the
surface trough Monday evening into the overnight with the potential
for strong winds and locally higher waves/seas. A cold front will
then drop across the waters Tue into Tue evening, with winds
shifting to the NW or N around 10 kt behind the boundary into Wed
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
For today Sat 7/20: No record highs were broken or tied at the 4
main CLI sites, but pending a significant temperature drop
through midnight LST, ECG will have a new record high min at 79
and ORF will have tied their record high min at 79. Good chance
for several record high mins to be tied or broken for Sun 7/21.
Record highs and record high mins are listed below:

* Richmond:     Record High   Record High Min

* Sat (7/20):   103/1930       78/2013
* Sun (7/21):   104/1930       77/1930
* Mon (7/22):   103/1952       79/2011

* Norfolk:      Record High   Record High Min

* Sat (7/20):   102/1942       79/1977  *today low so far 79F
* Sun (7/21):   101/1926       80/1983
* Mon (7/22):   102/2011       82/2011

* Salisbury:    Record High    Record High Min

* Sat (7/20):   104/1930       83/2013
* Sun (7/21):   106/1930       77/2017
* Mon (7/22):   104/1930       80/2011

* Eliz City:    Record High    Record High Min

* Sat (7/20)    104/1942       78/2012  *today low so far 79F
* Sun (7/21)    102/1987       79/1983
* Mon (7/22)    104/1952       79/2011

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...AKQ