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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure becomes anchored along or just off the
Carolina coast through this weekend. A weak cold front will
push across the area Monday night. High pressure returns
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis indicating ~1026mb sfc high pressure centered
over eastern NC. WNW flow prevails aloft as the local area is
situated in between a ridge over the deep south and a trough
over the Canadian Maritimes. Clear and pleasant this morning
with cool temperatures (though not as cool as yesterday at this
time). Readings are coolest over interior NE NC and SE VA
(50-55F) closest to the sfc high and are generally a little
warmer elsewhere ranging mostly in the 50s to around 60F.

For today, the sfc high more or less remains in place or shifts
just slightly off the NC coast by aftn. This will result in more
of a southerly flow developing around the backside of the sfc
high, allowing aftn highs to climb several degrees above what
occurred on Fri. Highs will avg in the mid to upper 80s over
the Piedmont and central VA, with 80-85F closer to the coast
(locally upper 70s Atlantic coast of the eastern shore). While
dew pts rise compared to the past few days, it will still be
pleasant as they are expected to avg in the mid/upper 50s to
lower 60s this aftn. May see some scattered clouds this aftn but
it will still avg mostly sunny. Bufkit soundings suggest some
mid level clouds will also be possible tonight, but overall it
would be partly cloudy at most. Warmer with a light SSW flow
yielding overnight mins mostly ranging from the lower to mid
60s, though some upper 50s will likely occur over interior
southern VA and NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Turning a bit warmer Sunday with increasing S flow...resulting
in highs 85-90F inland and low to mid 80s near the coast.

Sfc hi pres becomes elongated ENE-WSW from the wrn Atlantic to
the SE CONUS and ridge aloft flattens out by Mon as an upper
trough moves E from the Great lakes to the St Lawrence Valley.
Locally it will be very warm w/ SW winds and partly to mostly sunny
conditions. PoPs remain aob 10% through the day with highs
85-90F for all areas. A cold front will be entering the
mountains late which may throw a bit more significant cloudiness
into the Piedmont by late in the day. The front will be
weakening significantly as it crosses the Mtns Mon evening with
best moisture and dynamics staying well to our N. Will have
20-30% PoPs confined to the NE sections of the area for ISOLD/SCT
SHRAs- tstms, with PoPs at or below 14% elsewhere. Lows Mon
night ranging from around 60F NW to the upper 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

Mainly dry through the period other than a minimal chance for
rain late Thu w/ a second (weakening) cold front). Dry wx and
temperatures averaging aoa normals will prevail through the
extended forecast period.

Highs Tue in the u70s-l80s...Wed mainly 80-85F...Thu and Fri in
the m-u80s. Lows Mon night in the u50s-m60s...m50s-l60s Tue
night...l-m60s Wed night and m-u60s Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions through the period. There is some patchy ground
fog developing over interior sections of far SE VA and NE NC but
this is not expected to impact any of the main terminals. High
pressure is located along the coast of SE VA/NE NC and will
drift off the coast this aftn. Light SSW winds (less than 10kt)
are expected today with mainly clear skies.

Outlook...High pressure remains in control through the remainder
of the weekend. Southerly flow increases a bit but still only in
the 10-15kt range Sun/Mon ahead of an approaching cold front.
That front will cross the area late Monday into early Tuesday; some
mid level clouds are likely, but little to no rain is expected
with the front. Behind the front, high pressure builds back into
the region with N to NE winds. Expect mostly VFR conditions
through this extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

Early morning surface analysis shows high pressure centered over ern
NC. Winds have now veered to the SW over the waters and have
increased to 10-15 kt (highest over the ern Ches Bay). A few gusts
to 20 kt have been noted at elevated sites on the bay during the
past few hours. Seas are still 5-6 N/7-8 ft S of the VA-NC border
due to swell from what was TC Humberto. Waves are ~2 ft over most of
the Ches Bay, with 3 ft waves at the mouth of the bay. Seas are
expected to slowly diminish during the day today before falling
below 5 ft this aftn-evening (from N to S). SCAs remain in effect
for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles through 20z/4 PM, and until
23z/7 PM for the srn coastal waters. 5 ft seas may persist through
the late evening/early overnight hours for areas S of the VA-NC
border, but not confident enough to extend the SCA for just a few
hours attm.

The area of high pressure moves offshore this weekend. Expect SW
winds to diminish to ~10 kt by sunrise and remain around 10 kt
through much of the day today. Winds turn to the S and increase
slightly (with sustained winds of 12-15 kt) by this evening as the
pressure gradient tightens between the aforementioned high and a
developing lee trough. A few gusts to 20 kt are likely on the Ches
Bay (mainly at elevated sites) from 00-06z Sun. Winds turn to the SW
tonight and diminish to ~10 kt by 12z Sun. Winds again increase
Sunday evening and persist through the day on Monday (S-SW 15-17
knots over the bay/15-20 kt over the ocean...highest N) before
a weak cold front crosses the region late Monday into Tuesday.
Not anticipating the need for SCAs today/tonight. However, there
is a chc of SCAs late Sun night-Mon...mainly over the nrn
coastal waters where local wind probs are showing an 80% chc of
25 kt wind gusts at Buoy 44009. There is also a decent chc of
frequent 20 kt gusts over the nrn Ches Bay (from 00-12z Mon), so
there is the potential for a short duration SCA there as well.
Sub-SCA are conditions expected with the FROPA Mon night-Tue.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

A high rip current risk will continue through this evening due
to increased wave activity and near shore-normal swells. Use
extra caution if visiting the beach this weekend and always heed
the advice of lifeguards.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...CMF/LKB
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ