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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 101806
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
206 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region today, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns tonight
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Monday...

Low pressure will move along the New England coast and
eventually off Cape Cod as we head through this morning/early
afternoon. As a result, a cold front will push across the local
area during the day. The front is nudging into central parts of
the area now and will progress south through the morning and
early afternoon hours. The front slows some, before pushing
south of the area by late this afternoon/evening. Showers and a
couple of thunderstorms are expected along and south of the
front with the highest rain chances across the southern half of
the area. The Marginal severe weather threat has been trimmed
back even further and now only includes NE NC (with a slight
risk bisecting the Albemarle Sound). Any storm that develops
across far southern portions of the area will have the potential
to produce localized gusty winds and perhaps large hail.
Temperatures will be tricky today and will depend on the speed
of the front. The northern half of the forecast area will likely
see highs in the mid to upper 60s, but only because we should
see a bit of a rebound later in the afternoon as the front dips
south and the sky begins to clear. Highs across the southern
half of the area will be around 70, with 71-75 across NE NC, and
these highs will likely occur this morning with steady or
falling temperatures through the afternoon.

Rain chances will continue to diminish from N to S through
this evening into tonight, with the majority of the pcpn coming
to an end across the far south before midnight. High pressure
begins to build into the area from the NW late tonight. Lows
from the mid 40s NW to the mid 50s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure builds across the region from the northwest Tuesday
and dry conditions are anticipated. Temperatures Tuesday will
remain below average with highs in the mid/upper 60s to around
70. A cool and dry night is forecast for Tuesday night with lows
dropping back into the 40s. Clouds increase Tuesday night into
Wednesday as another area of low pressure approaches and skirts
south of the area. Will carry slight chc PoPs across NE NC on
Wednesday. Still below normal on Wednesday with highs only in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Low rain chances and moderating temperatures expected for the
extended forecast period. High pressure will be centered northwest
of the area Wednesday night and slowly drift east before eventually
drifting off the coast by next weekend. An area of low pressure
moves across the southern US on Wednesday and moves off the SE coast
by Thursday. Another area of low pressure slides south of the
region Thursday into Friday bringing low-end rain chances for
the southern half of the area. Temperatures slowly moderate
through the extended period, generally going up a degree or two
each day. Thursday`s highs start out in the upper 60s to lower
70s and by the time we reach next Sunday, highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures start out in the low to mid
40s Wednesday night with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front is located near the VA/NC border as of 18z. The
wind is N to NE 8-12kt at RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF, with gusts to ~20kt
at ORF. The wind remains W at ECG with gusts to 20kt, but should
shift to N by 19-20z once the front passes. Some lingering
showers are possible across SE VA through late afternoon. ECG
still has a potential for tstms later this afternoon. Surface
high pressure builds across the area tonight. A period of
partial clearing is possible this evening (especially N), with
mid clouds arriving later tonight into Tuesday morning. The wind
will remain N to NE at 5-8kt. A trough will slide across the
area Tuesday afternoon/evening bringing some additional clouds.
Mainly dry, although there is a minimal chance of a light
shower at SBY.

High pressure builds N of the region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the Carolinas.
Mainly dry, with a slight chc of light rain at ECG Wednesday
morning. High pressure builds across the area Wednesday night
and Thursday. A weak upper level trough will bring a slight
chance of showers Friday, with dry conditions expected
Saturday. Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

The front has made it to roughly rt 58 early this afternoon and will
continue pushing south through the evening. Winds are northerly
behind the front, and westerly just out ahead of the front. SCA
continues for the bay, lower James, and Currituck sound through this
afternoon as winds continue to gust around 25 kts along and just
behind the front. Waves in the bay are around 2-3 ft and seas 3-5
ft. Winds will subside for a period tonight below SCA criteria,
although a brief surge is expected overnight that will require a
brief SCA (roughly 6-12Z) for the bay and lower James.

Northerly winds 10-15 kts Tuesday morning will subside to 5-10 kts
during the afternoon. Winds over the northern waters will briefly
turn southerly as a weak high slides off the coast and weak surface
trough moves across the area. Winds then quickly turn back northerly
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as the high to the NW strengthens
and builds in. Another period of SCA winds are likely for the bay,
lower James, and Currituck sound from roughly 06-15Z Wednesday.
Waves in the bay 2-3 ft during the surges late tonight and late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday, subsiding to 1-2 ft during the
afternoon and early evening on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas will
be 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM
LONG TERM...AJB/JDM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...CMF