150
FXUS61 KAKQ 181958
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure located over the Carolinas will weaken today, and
will move offshore tomorrow into Friday. A backdoor cold front
potentially drops back south across the region Friday night
through Saturday. High pressure builds north of the area this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Additional showers today, with a few storms possible over
  southern sections. Any showers bringing the potential for
  locally heavy rainfall.

Latest analysis reveals the remnant low of PTC8 weakening over
the west-central portion of SC. To the east, weak secondary low
pressure continues to develop offshore. Meanwhile, ~1022mb high
pressure remains centered off the New England coast.

Only minor changes to the going forecast for the afternoon. Low
pressure will continue to weaken as it moves gradually to the
northwest and the coastal low takes shape offshore. Remaining
unsettled day, with scattered showers, and potentially a few
thunderstorms across the southern half of the area where some
clearing will ensue through mid-afternoon. Given the low to the
south, deep layer moisture and some weak forcing for ascent
along the occluded front lifting north, a few showers could
produce locally heavy rainfall. WPC continues to highlight much
of the central and eastern VA area in a Day 1 Marginal ERO.
Mostly cloudy to overcast skies throughout the day, though
thinning clouds could provide for some opaque sunshine across
southern VA and NE NC (mainly US-58 southward). Temperatures
today will range from the lower 70s across the NW, to the lower
80s SE.

Rain chances quickly decrease with loss of heating and taper
down further overnight, with only a slight chance for an
isolated shower. Low-level moisture along the front likely
portends another night of fog and/or low clouds late tonight and
overnight. Lows tonight drop back into the lower 60s NW to
upper 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Decreasing rain chances Thursday and Friday

As the coastal low lifts further to the NE on Thursday, expect a
drier day compared to today with even some partial clearing
(especially west) late in the day. Still, isolated to scattered
afternoon showers or storms will be possible, with the best chances
across far southern Virginia into northeast North Carolina (30-40%
PoPs). High temperatures on Thursday will generally be in the upper
70s area-wide and low temperatures will range from the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Sunshine returns Friday with temperatures warming into
the upper 70s to around 80. A backdoor cold front pushes south into
the area later Friday into Friday night, bringing a slight chance
for an afternoon shower (mainly across the MD Eastern Shore). Low
temperatures Friday night range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and cooler weather arrives this weekend into early next
week.

Aloft, a tall upper level ridge builds well into Canada and
Greenland with an upper level trough along the East Coast this
weekend into early next week. At the surface, low pressure lingers
off the Mid Atlantic coastline through the weekend, gradually
shifting south Sunday into early next week. Meanwhile, high pressure
remains centered in Quebec through Saturday before dropping south
into New England by Monday. Cooler weather is expected by Sunday and
especially Monday, with highs only in the low to mid 70s. Overnight
lows will generally be in the 50s away from the coast. Given the low
off the coast, coastal areas can expect breezy conditions with gusts
to 25-30 mph this weekend into Monday along with greater cloud cover
and humidity. Additionally, cannot rule out a few isolated showers
along the coast (15-25% PoPs).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread IFR to LIFR CIGs continue across the region this
morning. IFR CIGs likely try to hang on during much of the
daytime hours, with ECG having the best potential to see a
brief window of MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Additional showers
develop this morning through this afternoon, leading to the
potential for MVFR to IFR VSBY restrictions under any heavier
showers. Winds average 5-10 knots out of the NE through the
period. IFR to LIFR CIGs redevelop tonight and are expected for
the remainder of the forecast period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs likely stick around into early Thursday
afternoon, before a potential improvement late.  Gradually
improving conditions are then expected on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for coastal waters off the
  Delmarva into Thursday.

- Another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions appears
  increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

An elongated area of low pressure has developed from Northeast
North Carolina to off the Virginia Capes this afternoon as the
upper level trough over South Carolina slowly begins to lift
northeastward. Gradually, this area of low pressure will become
more defined well off the Delmarva and NJ coast on Thursday. In
the interim, expect conditions to remain rather unchanged with
N to NE flow in the 10 to 15 kt range on the Ches Bay and
Northern Coastal waters and 5 to 10 kt across the adjacent NC
waters. Seas remain elevated from the long time of NE flow
earlier in the week, but are coming down with seas from the
Mouth of the Bay southward in the coastal waters are in the 3 -
4 ft range. Farther north they are slower to drop and are still
in the 4 -7 ft range. So have maintained the SCA for this area
and actually extended the SCA through mid day for the northern 2
coast zones.

By Thursday afternoon, the area of low pressure should be coming
more organized, but will also be relatively stationary a couple
hundred miles off the NJ coast. This will allow for NNW winds to
persist for several days through Saturday. Generally winds
should remain mostly 10 - 15 kt through the period with maybe a
slight increase across the northern coastal waters for Friday
night. But overall, think most areas will stay below SCA levels
through Saturday.

By Saturday night, the coastal low finally begins to move and
actually drops SE heading toward Bermuda. But is it leaves, it
will begin to strength and the winds across the waters will
increase out of the NE with building seas once again. SCA
conditions look likely across the area waters from Sunday
through early next week as the seas jump up into the 5 - 8 ft
range into Tuesday before conditions relax with high pressure
building over the area waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...

Astronomical tides will continue to increase with the approach
of the next full moon. Higher astro tides along with prolonged
onshore flow will lead to nuisance to low- end minor tidal
flooding across much of the area along the bay and tidal rivers
through the end of the week. Have extended CF Advisories
through the morning high tide cycle tonight for much of the bay,
and adjacent tributaries. Have also extended the coastal flood
statement for the Eastern Shore given levels hitting minor flood
thresholds at Bishop`s Head, but remaining under flood
thresholds other nearby sites.

Additional advisories/extension of Advisories will likely be
needed through the end of the week and into the weekend due to
extended periods of onshore flow and high astro tides. Low end
moderate flooding is possible at particularly vulnerable spots
(Bishop`s Head, Oyster), but otherwise staying within minor
flood thresholds so far. However, a building flood tide
Saturday into Saturday night does bring the potential for tide
levels reaching moderate Coastal Flood Thresholds (best chances
northern coastal zones and lower bay) for tide cycles over the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ075-077.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...