121
FXUS61 KAKQ 251822
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore tonight into Wednesday. A cold
front approaches the area later Wednesday afternoon and crosses
the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next
chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north
of the region for the latter portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Quiet weather prevails tonight with increasing humidity.

Afternoon wx analysis shows W to NW flow aloft over the local area,
with sfc high pressure just off the coast of NC. A cold front and
associated upper shortwave are well to our NW (over the Great
Lakes). Temps have risen into the upper 80s-lower 90s with rather
comfortable dew points in the 50s-60F. The surface high settles off
the Southeast coast tonight. Mostly clear and warm with low
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s with a light SSW wind.
There will be a noticeable increase in humidity overnight, with dew
pts rising to near 70F by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices likely exceed 100F
again.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially being
strong or severe with damaging wind gusts to primary threat.

- A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Thursday
afternoon-evening.

Wednesday will be the hottest day of the period before the cold
front (and trough aloft) cross the local area Wednesday night into
Thursday. The low-level flow increases out of the SW on Wednesday,
allowing 850mb temperatures to surge to 20-22C ahead of the cold
front. This supports high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100F.
Similar to today, dew points should mix out during the day and drop
into the mid to upper 60s (perhaps even a degree or two lower)
during peak heating. So while temps will be near 100F, heat indices
will generally range from 100-104F. Mostly sunny through mid-
afternoon and then becoming partly sunny with a SW wind of 10-15
mph.

Forecast soundings show that the boundary layer remains capped much
of the day prior to some height falls arriving later Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. There is somewhat better agreement
in the 12z/25 CAMs that widely scattered tstms initially develop in
the higher elevations of W/NW VA by 3-4 PM before trying to push SE
into NW portions of the FA. However, these initial tstms will likely
weaken as they push toward the RIC metro as the atmosphere will
likely remain capped through at least Wed evening across the SE half
to two-thirds of the area. The highest tstm chances will be from 5
PM-1 AM mainly north of I-64 as the actual front nears the area
before the convection gradually weakens early Thu AM. Areas south of
a Farmville-Richmond-Williamsburg line will likely see little to no
rain through Thu AM...with localized totals in excess of 1" possible
from Louisa County to the MD Eastern Shore. In addition, any storm
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts given very strong
sfc heating, a deep well mixed boundary layer, and some mid-level
drying. In fact, forecast soundings from most models show DCAPE
values of 1200-1500 J/kg Wed aftn/evening. Lows Wed night in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC
Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the
northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to redevelop
along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest chc across
extreme SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures return to seasonally hot
levels ranging from the upper 80s to around 90F. Any tstms dissipate
or move to our south by late Thu evening. High pressure builds
across New England Thursday night into Friday following the FROPA.
Lows Thu night fall into the mid 60s-lower 70s. Dry but still
seasonally hot on Fri with highs in the upper 80s-lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and
potentially more humid.

- Flash drought conditions continue across most of the area.

The heat builds back over the local area this weekend as high
pressure pushes well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Another upper
trough and cold front approach the area from the NW late this
weekend, and the cold front is progged to cross the area Sunday
night. Forecast high temperatures are mainly in the mid 90s on both
Saturday and Sunday, with aftn dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s
(mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak heating on both days.
This is supported by the deterministic guidance and MOS guidance,
but is below the mid/upper 70s shown by the NBM (which is likely too
high especially given how dry it has been). Resultant heat indices
are in the upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and then potentially
105-109F for much of the CWA Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered
tstms are possible on Sat (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of
showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the cold
front drops through the region. Not as hot Monday with highs in the
mid 80s to near 90F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours.
Winds will generally be S to SW at ~10 kt except for local sea
breezes near the coast this afternoon. Skies remain clear
outside of high clouds through most of the period, with SCT
cumulus (5000-6000 ft AGL) developing by early Wed aftn.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. A
weakening cold front will approach from the NW later Wednesday
aftn and then will drop into the area Wednesday night bringing
a 20-50% chc of showers/tstms (highest at SBY). This front will
be slow to push through southern VA and NC NE Thursday with a
30-50% chc of aftn/early evening showers/tstms. High pressure
and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1255 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs conditions expected across the middle Ches Bay tonight,
  north of New Point Comfort.

High pressure slides off the coast and out to sea late this
afternoon into Wed. Light winds will turn to the SE or S at
10-15 kt by this evening. A brief period of SCA conditions will
occur this evening into early Wed morning (7 pm this evening to
4 am Wed morning), over the middle two Ches Bay zones (630-631)
with S winds 15-20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Seas build to 3-4ft
N tonight into Wed, and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing
southerly flow. 4-5 ft seas will be possible for a brief period
north of Parramore Island late Wed aftn and evening. Another
weakening cold front pushes through the region during Thu. The
wind shifts to NE then E or SE late week and is expected to be
at or below 15kt.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches today. A low rip
risk is expected again on Wed given southerly flow and short
wave periods at or below 5 secs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JDM/TMG