347
FXUS61 KAKQ 281737
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
137 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds north of the region through this morning,
then slides off the southern New England coast for this
afternoon into tonight, providing dry weather. Heat and
humidity return for Saturday and Sunday, with an increased
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night.
A cold front drops across the area late Sunday night through
Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Friday...

Mid-morning sfc analysis shows high pressure building into the
NE CONUS. High pressure will slide offshore later this
afternoon. Latest observations show temps in the mid- upper
70s, but a few sites have warmed into the low 80s across the
southern inland portion of the FA. Breezy onshore winds will
keep temps a bit cooler along the coast with highs in the low-
mid 80s. The Maryland beaches likely stay in the upper 70s today.
Elsewhere, away from the water, temps warm into the upper 80s.
Highest temps look to be in the SW piedmont where highs may
reach 90. Staying dry today under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday with more humidity.

- Dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the area on
  Sunday as heat and humidity peak ahead of a cold front.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night.

The sfc high pressure will be off the New England coast for
tonight into early Sat, with some moisture returning as a weak
warm front lifts through the area. Will maintain a dry fcst, but
an isolated shower could come up into NE NC by Sat morning.
Lows tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Heat
and increasing humidity return Sat, as high pressure shifts
farther out to sea resulting in low level flow becoming SSE.
This will allow 850mb temps to rise to ~20C, which supports
widespread lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont. Highs near the
coast are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90 (lower to
mid 80s at the MD beaches), as there will still be a bit of an
onshore component to the flow. This combined with sfc dewpoints
in the lower 70s will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. There is a slight chc to low chc of aftn showers/tstms
over the Piedmont in the vicinity of a subtle lee-side trough.
Although mid to upper level height rises will act to suppress
more widespread convection despite the fact that there will be a
decent amount of sfc-based instability present.

Another upper trough and cold front will approach the area on
Sun, and that cold front will cross the area Sun evening into
Mon morning. The LLVL flow will increase out of the SW on
Sun ahead of the front, allowing 850mb temps to rise to 20-23C.
This will result in hot and humid conditions with mid 90s
expected inland/Piedmont, and 88-94 near the coast (morning
lows will be in the mid to locally upper 70s). With dew pts in
the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat
indices of 105-107F are in the forecast. Note that the dew
point forecast continues to be a couple degrees lower than
NBM and is more in line with MOS values. In addition, sctd to
numerous tstms are expected area-wide from Sun aftn-Sun night
along and ahead of the cold front. Tstms will diminish from NW
to SE late Sun night. Given the heat and humidity/ample
instability, could see localized damaging wind gusts with any
storms that form (mainly during the aftn/evening). Lows Sun
night in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before
  very hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day.

A slight reprieve in the heat is likely early next week in the wake
of the cold front, as the 00z/28 EPS and GEFS continue to
depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies Mon and Tue.
However, the ensemble guidance also surges the heat back into
the region by the middle of next week just prior to Independence
Day, with forecast highs well into the 90s for much of the
area. Other than a few lingering showers in NE NC Mon morning,
dry wx is expected through next Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

SCT cloud cover is present across the FA this afternoon with cloud
bases around 3-4kft. Have seen a few instances of brief MVFR
with thicker patches of clouds, but otherwise VFR today. Cloud
cover will temporarily scatter out this evening, then build back
toward BKN after midnight. Guidance favors MVFR across most TAF
sites late tonight into early Sat. Cannot rule out IFR at RIC
during the early morning hours. ENE winds will continue to be
gusty along the coast through the afternoon. Winds turn to the
SE late tonight.

High pressure and mainly dry conditions will prevail for today
through at least Sat morning. Sctd showers/tstms are likely
Sun into Sun night. High pressure and drier conditions return
for Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 945 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

- Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy
  onshore/southerly winds late this afternoon through the
  weekend.

- Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday.

The secondary cold front has crossed the waters and E-NE winds
of 10-20 kt (w/ gusts to 25 kt N of New Pt Comfort) continue,
and we`ve extended the Small Craft Advisory for the nrn two Ches
Bay zones until 1 PM. Still expect gusts to 20 kt across the
lower bay/rivers for much of today. Winds become E at 10-15 kt
by late aftn. As high pressure to the N slides offshore later
today and tonight, expect winds veer to the SE, becoming SSE by
Saturday morning, with SE winds persisting Sat aftn ~10-15 kt.

Another cold front looks to approach the area Sunday, and
southerly winds will increase ahead of it late Saturday night as
surface high pressure slides farther offshore ahead of the
approaching front. Southerly channeling in the lower James and
Ches Bay look increasingly likely to create a brief period of
SCA- level winds late Saturday into Sunday morning, with winds
appearing to fall just short of criteria over the coastal waters
and most of the eastern Va rivers. Breezy S-SW winds continue
~10-15kt Sun aftn and night, turning to the NNW behind the
front Monday. Models showing winds remaining sub- SCA at this
time but given decent CAA for early July, another short-lived
SCA appears quite possible Sunday night into Monday, again,
mainly in the bay. Showers and storms will also accompany the
front, with some SMW/MWS likely to be needed Sunday night.

Waves/seas 1-2 ft early this morning. Seas increasing to 3-4ft
later this morning (highest north) with developing onshore (NE)
wind. Waves increase to around 2-3 ft (highest at the mouth of
the bay), then remain at 1-2ft into Saturday. Waves up to 3ft
will be possible in the bay onshore flow persisting on Saturday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents across all Atlantic-
coast beaches in the FA through Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/TMG
SHORT TERM...ERI/TMG
LONG TERM...ERI/TMG
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...ERI/MAM