867
FXUS61 KAKQ 301115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
715 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity build through today ahead of an approaching
cold front. Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain will
be possible this afternoon into tonight. The front pushes south
of the area Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and
lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return
later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the area today
  where confidence is highest at reaching heat indices of at
  least 105F.

- The potential is there for strong to severe storms this
  aftn/early evening, likely transitioning more to a heavy rain
  threat tonight.

Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered well off the
Mid Atlc coast. Also, a lee trough was over the Piedmont, while
a cold front was pushing through the srn OH valley and into KY.
It was warm and humid across the region under a clear to mostly
cloudy sky. Temps were ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year),
will approach the area from thr NW today, crossing the region
tonight through Mon morning. Ahead of the front, S/SW low level
flow will allow hot and very humid conditions to continue. The
typical mid morning peak in dew pts will tend to see them avg
from the mid 70s to perhaps around 80F along the Albemarle sound
in NE NC, before mixing out a few degrees during this aftn.
There remain some uncertainties regarding an earlier than usual
shower/storm development between 15-18Z, and this could limit
the temps to some extent. Right now, this appears most likely
over the northern portions of the CWA, so have left them out
of the Heat Advisory. Even in areas within the Advisory over
central and southern VA, there will be a chc for some spotty
showers/tstms by mid/late this morning, but the thinking is
that the anomalously high dew pts should push heat indices
towards 105F rather quickly. While the potential for morning
convection exists, the main threat for sctd to numerous storms
will be this aftn and into the overnight hours, probably in 2
rounds (earlier with storms well ahead of the front and
overnight with additional forcing from the front itself). The
greatest severe threat will be this aftn/early this evening
ahead of the front with ML CAPE to 1000-1500 J/Kg, and will
primarily be from damaging winds given increasing mid level flow
with shear to 30-35 kt. Thus, there is a Slight risk for severe
storms for just about the entire FA, and a Marginal risk for
most of NE NC where shear is a bit less. Locally heavy rainfall
is expected, esply E of I-95 across VA, where PWs will approach
2.25", and the latest HREF shows 10-30%+ for 3" of rain in 3 hr.
WPC continues with a Marginal ERO for much of the region. Pcpn
will taper off and end from NW to SE from late tonight through
Mon morning. Lows tonight will range from around 60/lower 60s
over the far NW, to the lower 70s far SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering
much drier and cooler air into the region during the day. The
sky will become mostly sunny (with lingering clouds over the SE)
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Clear or mostly clear
and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from
the N. Lows will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The
center of the sfc high will move to the srn New England coast
during Tue. Generally mostly sunny and still rather comfortable
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in
the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. The sfc high will sit just off the
New England coast for Tue night. Clear to partly cloudy and
still rather comfortable with lows in the upper 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 405 AM EDT Sunday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity returns later in the week.

The models show good consensus for the return of the upper
ridge over the southeast CONUS by mid to late next week. With
sfc high pressure still centered just off the coast Wed,
conditions will be seasonable for early July, with highs in the
mid 80s to around 90, with moderate humidity levels and little
to no chance for rain. Thu-Sat looks to turn hot with fairly
high humidity. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 90s
(lower 90s over the Lower MD and VA ern shore). With dewpoints
climbing back into the lower to mid 70s, heat indices will
likely be 100-105F. There also will be a chance for mainly
aftn/evening tstms Thu-Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 710 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions were prevailing at the TAF sites very early this
morning, with SSW winds 5-11 kt. Mainly dry conditions will
continue through this morning, except for an isolated shower
extrm NNW areas. Dry/mainly VFR through 16-17z today, except for
a low chc of a shower/tstm at SBY. Sctd to numerous
showers/tstms are likely this aftn through late this evening,
with showers and a few tstms likely tonight into early Mon
morning. Some of the storms could be strong to severe (esply
during this aftn/evening), with brief wind gusts of 30-50 kt
possible. Any tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR-LIFR
flight restrictions in heavy rain. Winds shift to the NNE Mon
morning and will be gusty, esply at the coast. High pressure and
drier conditions return for later Mon morning/early Mon aftn
through Tue, and mainly dry Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches through
  Monday.

- A period of SCA conditions is expected for the bay, lower
  James and Currituck sound late tonight into Monday with
  northerly winds behind a cold front.

- High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period,
  with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek.

Latest analysis reveals 1028+mb surface high pressure centered east
of Atlantic Canada early this morning, extending SW well off
the New England and northeast coastline. ~1004mb sfc low
pressure continues to cross central Quebec, with the associated
surface cold front pushing east of the eastern Great Lakes into
the northeast. Locally, winds are SSW ~10-15 kt. Southerly
channeling which resulted in a surge of low-end SCA winds have
gradually diminished as expected this morning, and expect any
gusts to ~20 kt over the bay and lower James to diminish over
the next couple of hours. Will therefore allow SCA to expire on
time at 08z. Seas should remain 3- 4ft this morning, with waves
2-3ft on the bay. Sub-SCA winds through this afternoon, with
winds backing to the SSE once again ~10-15 kt.

The previously referenced cold front, a strong cold front relative
to late June/July, approaches from the NW today. Still expecting
some strong to severe tstms ahead of the frontal passage late
this afternoon and this evening. These storms could bring some
locally stronger convective wind gusts, best handled with marine
statements and Warnings as needed. The front crosses into the
area after midnight late tonight/early Monday, with a decent
CAA surge post-frontal. NNW winds of 15-25kt expected. Seas
build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCAs have
been hoisted for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck
Sound. Have held off for the coastal waters for now, but a brief
window of NNW winds ~25 kt are possible early Monday, with the
best chances south of Cape Charles. Winds remain N ~15-20 kt
into Monday aftn, before diminishing to NE 10-15kt Monday night
into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the New England
coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the lower bay
and lower James Monday night before gradually diminishing. Seas
slowly subside to ~3ft by late Monday night, as high pressure
builds into the region. The high eventually settles S off the
coastal Carolinas by midweek with the wind becoming southerly.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all
beaches Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ065>069-079>090-092-093-095>098-512>520-522>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/MAM