Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
800 FXUS61 KALY 241735 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 135 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure builds into the region, clouds will start to decrease across the region along with a diminishing wind. High pressure will allow for dry and sunny weather on Tuesday, with comfortable levels of humidity. Warm and more humid conditions are expected on Wednesday, along with some afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 135 PM EDT...Surface cold front continues to exit off the coast of eastern New England. In the wake of the front, west to southwesterly winds have allowed much less humid air to move into the region. Dewpoints have fallen into the 50s across the area according to NYS mesonet and ASOS observations. In addition, visible satellite imagery shows fairly widespread stratocu clouds, as cooler air aloft and some lake enhancement is allowing for a mostly cloudy sky over the entire area. With the cold pool overhead and moisture off the eastern Great Lakes, some instability showers have developed across the region. Showers are mainly light and brief in duration, with the greatest coverage across northern and western areas. Through the early evening hours, a brief shower can`t be ruled out across much of the area, but total QPF will generally be under a tenth of an inch. Temps and humidity levels will be much lower than the previous several days. A strong sfc pressure gradient will allow for breezy conditions with west to northwest winds of 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Temps will generally remain steady in the 60s to mid 70s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tonight...High pressure ridges in from the Ohio Valley and the Piedmont Region. The skies will clear and the winds will diminish for some ideal radiational cooling for late June. Lows will fall into the 50s with some upper 40s over the southern Adirondacks and the southern Greens. Tuesday will be a nice day with the sfc anticylone moving east of the Mid Atlantic Region. Low and mid level warm advection will begin. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with some cirrus increasing ahead of a warm front. H850 temps rise back above normal. Humidity levels should not be too bad with dewpoints in the 50s. Max temps will rise back above normal with 85 to 90F readings in the valleys and 70s to lower 80s over the mtns. The 90F readings will be mainly in the mid Hudson River Valley. A warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region Tue night. Clouds will increase, as some isolated to scattered showers will be possible overnight north and west of the Capital Region. Some of the guidance is showing some weak elevated instability, as we did include a slight chance of thunderstorms over the western Mohawk Valley and southern Dacks. Temps will be milder than the preceding day with upper 50s to mid 60s over most of the region with some upper 60s over the mid Hudson Valley. Wed-Wed night...unsettled weather returns to eastern NY and western New England, as pre-frontal trough and a cold front will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms. Instability still varies on the guidance. The 0-6 km shear increases especially at 700-500 hPa layer in the afternoon into the early evening as a wave may move along the front. Sfc dewpoints rise back into the lower to mid 60s. Even with MLCAPEs of 500-1500 J/kg, some organized deep convection looks possible. SPC has added most of the area to a Marginal Risk...with a small areas (eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley) in a Slight Risk in the new Day 3 Outlook. This looks reasonable with a potential for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. We will highlight in the HWO and a IDSS one pager. Damaging winds and if lapse rates steepen...large hail will be the main threats. PWATS on the NAEFS do increase 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal, so some locally heavy rain will be possible. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s west of the Hudson River Valley and Lake George, as well as across southern VT and mid 80s to lower 90s over the rest of the region. Heat indices may flirt with 95F readings in the mid Hudson River Valley, so a Heat Advisory maybe needed later, if confidence increases. Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue ahead of the cold front Wed night. They should begin to diminish in the early morning hours, as sfc ridging attempts to build in from the west from the Great Lakes Region. Lows in the wake of the cold front fall back into the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Long term period begins at 12z Thursday with the cold front to our south and a wave of low pressure that developed along the front tracking into southeast maritime Canada. Behind the front, we will remain under broad upper troughing with cool air aloft and northwest flow. It will be much cooler and less humid with highs in the 60s (terrain) to 70s (valleys) with lower humidly. There could be a few lingering showers early in the morning, but most of the day will be dry. High pressure builds Thursday night into Friday with continued dry weather. Thursday night will be quite comfortable with lows ranging from 40s in the high terrain to 50s in the valleys. Friday will be a touch warmer as heights rise aloft, although highs will remain mostly in the 70s with a few low 80s towards the I-84 corridor. Friday night, the surface high moves off to our east and broad upper ridging amplifies over our region. A warm front lifts northwards across the region Friday night or Saturday. Lows Friday night will be mainly in the 50s to low 60s. With the warm front to our north Saturday, it will be warmer and more humid with highs well into the 80s for the lower elevations. A series up shortwave disturbances embedded in broad troughing aloft will help to drive a cold front southeastwards through our region Saturday afternoon or Sunday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. This is several days out and there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing of the frontal passage, but as is typical for this time of year will have to monitor for the possibility of some stronger storms if the front comes through around peak daytime heating Saturday afternoon. The front may stall near our region Sunday, so will keep chances for showers and a few thunderstorms through the day. Temperatures will depend on where exactly the front stalls, and we will work to refine this over the coming days as confidence increases. Behind the front, however, cooler and drier weather is expected across our area once again. However, the CPC is expecting temperatures for days 8 to 14 to average above normal, with above normal precipitation for this same timeframe as well. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level trough is overhead, producing mostly cloudy skies and some spotty showers. Most of the stratocu is around 3500-5000 ft, so flying conditions are mainly VFR. Brief showers are possible, but any reductions in visibility will be very brief and short-lived (mainly into the MVFR range for visibility for a short time). Showers will dissipate towards evening. Westerly winds will be gusty this afternoon, with sustained winds 10 to 16 kts and some gusts in the 20-25 kt range. These winds will also diminish for this evening. Decreasing winds and clouds expected for tonight. Flying conditions will mainly be VFR, although some fog could develop late in the overnight at KGFL if winds decouple enough. Otherwise, it will be VFR for all sites, with skies becoming clear and light winds by the late night hours. Flying conditions will be VFR on Tuesday. Clear skies will gave way to some afternoon clouds with westerly winds of 5 to 10 kts. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Frugis