600
FXUS61 KALY 252037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
437 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of much needed wet days will give way to dry
conditions for the end of the workweek and weekend with seasonable
temperatures. The next stretch of dry weather will be much shorter
than this last spell with shower chances increasing again Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The dry slot that has kept much of eastern New York and western
New England largely dry since this morning`s first batch of
showers has just about exited to the east as moisture surges
into the region from the south and west as part of a fetch
extending north and east from the Gulf embedded within the
southwest flow of the leading edge of a mid to upper- level
trough whose axis has dug deep into the Mississippi Valley.
A surface low pressure system has become situated in southeast
Ontario, extending a warm front south into the Ohio Valley just
west of the western border of New York State with a northern
stream shortwave overhead. Additional rounds of showers, already
underway for portions of the Eastern Catskills; western Mohawk
Valley; and Mid-Hudson Valley, are therefore anticipated
throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight as
upper-level divergence increases with the southeastward track
and intensification of the upper-level shortwave and surface
convergence and warm air advection increases ahead of the warm
front.

Shower coverage will continue to increase from southwest to
northeast throughout the afternoon into the overnight, becoming
widespread with embedded heavier downpours in regions of higher
terrain where orographic effects will enhance lift. However,
some heavier showers will be possible in the Mohawk and Upper-
Hudson Valley/Capital District as well given the moist
environment and favorable synoptic environment. Low temperatures
will remain on the mild side with extensive cloud cover
inhibiting radiational cooling. Temperatures will only fall to
the low to upper 50s with pockets of upper 40s possible above
1500 ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By tomorrow morning, the aforementioned shortwave looks to
deepen such that it closes off into an upper-level low just
south of the James Bay. Additional moderate showers are possible
given the intensification and subsequent enhancement of
divergence aloft. Likewise, with the surface low tracking north
and east into western Quebec, the warm front will swiftly track
through the region throughout the day followed in close
succession by a weak cold front whose forcing could also
contribute to some additional moderate to locally heavy
downpours tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon.
Despite the expectation for moderate to heavy rainfall at times,
there are no concerns of river or flash flooding given the
recent dry spell.

Latest CAMs indicate a line of potential convection developing
tomorrow afternoon and tracking through the Capital District
south and east into tomorrow evening with the aforementioned
cold front. With extensive cloud cover, it is likely that there
will not be sufficient instability to generate widespread
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. However, with cooler
temperatures aloft and some very modest instability (generally
less than 500 J/kg), it is possible that some rumbles develop
within the line of showers. Included slight chance of thunder
south and east of Albany to account for this possibility. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 60s to low 70s
with pockets of low 60s across regions of higher terrain.

The closed low, with fast flow aloft, will track quickly east
toward southeast Quebec, forcing the quick track of the cold
front through the region. By tomorrow evening, the cold front
looks to have completed its track through the region with dry
conditions following close behind. In fact, much of the
overnight period tomorrow night appears to be dry. Low
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than the previous
night with upper 40s to mid 50s anticipated across much of the
region. Some isolated spots of upper 50s are possible within the
lower Mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County.

Dry conditions will then be maintained Friday into Saturday as
heights increase with upper-level ridging building in from the
west. Surface high pressure, in tandem, will nose in from the
southwest and remain in place through the remainder of the short
term period. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will largely
range from the upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of mid 60s
across higher terrain regions. Low temperatures Friday night
will range from the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low and associated cold front will exit Friday night, and
some clouds and a lingering isolated shower are expected in the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT. By Saturday more of a slow clearing and
drying trend with intervals of clouds and sun. Highs Saturday around
70 to mid 70s with some upper 60s in higher elevations.

Upper ridging gradually builds in from the west Sunday through
Monday.  Partly to mostly sunny with highs Sunday around 70 to mid
70s and 60s higher elevations. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 70s
with around 70 higher terrain.

Northern stream energy approaches and drops out of Canada along with
an associated warm advection ahead of it Tuesday night. Isolated
showers by Tuesday afternoon and evening, then increasing coverage
of showers through Wednesday with the approaching cold front. Highs
Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and mid 60s higher terrain.
Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 60s with mid 50s to lower 60s
higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR/MVFR conditions this afternoon with
cigs in the 2-3 kft AGL range at KPSF and 3.5-5 kft AGL range at
KALB/KGFL/KPOU. Another round of showers and light rain will
move in the terminals sites between 20Z/WED and 00Z/THU with
conditions lowering to widespread MVFR. The light rain will
persist until 04Z-07Z/WED and then a surge of heavier rain will
lower cigs/vsbys to low MVFR/IFR levels, as a wave of low
pressure move across the region through daybreak.

Conditions may stay IFR until about 16Z/THU but lingering
drizzle and light rain will continue with low MVFR and spotty
IFR conditions.

The winds will be east to southeast at less than 10 KT this
afternoon. The winds will generally be under 7 KT from the
south to southeast tonight. 2 kft AGL winds will increase to
35-40 KT from the south toward 06Z/THU. Low Level wind shear
was added to KGFL/KPSF/KPOU until about 16Z/THU. We may need to
add KALB with later TAF issuances. The winds will be southerly
at 5-10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Wasula