Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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902 FXUS61 KALY 240545 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 145 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A final day of dry weather is expected today with seasonable temperatures. Increasing clouds this evening will precede rain showers arriving from the west overnight tonight, ending two weeks without accumulating rainfall across much of the region. Unsettled weather will continue through Thursday before dry weather returns Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Brief mid and upper-level ridging are building overhead early this morning while surface ridging noses into the region from the northeast, yielding yet another dry day. Some low clouds will move into the Upper Hudson and portions of western New England on easterly flow, while cirrus coverage spreads to the northwest as a shortwave trough approaches from the Ohio Valley, resulting in partly cloudy skies becoming mostly cloudy by this evening. Overnight tonight, the aforementioned shortwave will arrive from the southwest on the eastern flank of an upper trough. A closed upper-level low will develop over the Mississippi Valley while its parent northern stream trough continues to progress eastward into southeastern Canada. Locally, low-level flow turning out of the southeast will encourage modest warm advection while synoptic support for ascent increases ahead of the shortwave. Rain shower coverage will initially be isolated, but will begin to fill in toward Wednesday morning as the main northern stream trough makes its nearest approach. This will mark the first accumulating rainfall for most of the region in over two weeks. Following morning lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, temperatures will rise to near seasonal norms today, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s to low 70s at lower elevations. Beneath overcast skies as rain showers arrive, slightly more mild conditions are expected tonight, as temperatures fall to lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Early Wednesday morning, a positively tilted shortwave is on track to approach the area from the west. As it does so, the southernmost section will break off and strengthen into a closed low across the Mississippi Valley, with the northern stream trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ontario. WAA and moisture will strengthen across the region with increasing southwesterly flow, forcing with the shortwave and surface cold front, which will increase chances of welcomed rain showers across the region. Coverage of showers will increase during the daytime Wednesday and last through the night. Rumbles of thunder will also be possible as we will have some weak levels of elevated instability per fcst soundings, though the risk of severe weather is low. Temperatures will be cool thanks to the clouds and precipitation, with highs Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. There will not be much of a diurnal drop Wednesday night with lows only in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettled start to the long term forecast period will give way to what looks to be another prolonged stretch of dry weather across eastern New York and western New England. Read on for details... Upper-level, shortwave troughing resides across the region Thursday morning as an associated surface cyclone tracks south and east across southern Quebec. A weak cold front will swing through the region from west to east Thursday in attendance with the progression of the surface low while the upper-level wave deepens and closes off at the 500 mb level. These features, though their position will maintain better forcing to the north of the region, will allow for isolated to scattered showers to linger Thursday morning into the afternoon especially in higher terrain areas where upslope flow could aid in overcoming the lack of stronger forced ascent. However, with the upper low following a fairly swift track, dry conditions should be reinforced across the region by Thursday evening. Additionally, with moisture on the modest side, QPF is anticipated to be light and much needed after the recent dry spells. Upon the exit of the aforementioned system, geopotential heights increase as upper-level ridging builds in from the west and surface high pressure sinks south from southeast Canada. Fair weather will persist across eastern New York and western New England through Sunday as the upper ridge continues to build farther across the Northeast. High temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will be fairly steady with upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of mid 60s across higher terrain regions and upper 70s in valley areas. Low temperatures, too, will be fairly similar across the period with mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Flying conditions are currently VFR for all sites. IR satellite imagery shows some patches of low stratocu and stratus clouds around the region, with ceilings around 1500-4500 ft. The lowest clouds have been near KPSF. Most of these are starting to diminish, but will continue to allow a TEMPO at KPSF for brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, IR satellite imagery shows bands of mid and high level clouds moving into the area from the west. Will continue to mention these clouds for the late night hours. With these clouds moving in (as well as the patches of lower clouds currently in place), fog will have a hard time forming early this morning, so won`t mention any mist or fog for this morning. Winds will be light or calm through the rest of the overnight hours. Through the day on Tuesday, flying conditions should be VFR with no precip. There will continue to be sct-bkn mid and high level clouds around through the day. South to southeast winds will be around 5 kts. No precip is expected to start Tuesday night, but some showers are possible by the late night hours and towards Wednesday morning. Ceilings will be starting to lower with bkn cigs around 3500-5000 ft expected by Tuesday evening. South to southeast winds will continue around 5 to 10 kts into Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Frugis