Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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340 FXUS61 KALY 061828 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 228 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humid today with morning clouds breaking for some sun this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms track from west to east through early evening. Any thunderstorm can produce heavy downpours. Temperatures and humidity trend downwards with unsettled conditions tomorrow through the weekend, with a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder each afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1:40pm EDT, a warm and very humid day continues today with temperatures reaching around 80 in the Hudson Valley and mid to upper 70s elsewhere thanks to some limited breaks of sun and thinning of cloud coverage (cooler upper 60s in the high terrain). Convection out ahead of the abrupt wind shift boundary in Central NY is spilling eastward into the Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills early this afternoon. Also, our warm front near the I-84 corridor is lifting northward as seen via sfc observations with winds shifting to the south in the mid-Hudson Valley. The true warm sector is located well to our south and with only limited sun so far, ML CAPE and SB CAPE remain low ranging just 500 - 1000 J/kg despite the moisture rich environment. Given this and the strong low and mid-level jet being located within the warm sector over the mid-Atlantic, SPC maintains a "marginal risk" for severe weather today and upgraded the mid-Atlantic to a slight risk. Still expecting an area of rain and thunderstorms to increase in coverage and spread across eastern NY and into western New England this afternoon through early evening (2 - 10pm) with the P.M commute likely featuring periods of rain and rumbles for much of the Hudson Valley. Will maintain a watchful eye on storm intensification as the wind shift boundary pushes eastward but with it moving into an environment with weak instability and deep layer shear values only topping out around 30kts, we do not expect widespread severe weather. Still, heavy downpours/high rainfall rates thanks to efficient warm rain processes and very moisture rich environment may result in poor drainage flooding. Most of the rain should be east of the region by 10-11pm. Winds sharply shift to the west in the wake of the wind shift boundary and should briefly become breezy with gusts up to 20kts possible. Clouds quickly clear in the wake of the boundary late this afternoon into the evening from west to east with dew points dropping as dry air quickly ushers into the region. Humidity levels drop with dew points and temperatures remaining in the 50s to around 60. Patchy fog may develop given the clearing clouds and afternoon rainfall but with drier air moving into the region, only expecting patchy coverage. Previous discussion...Our morning 12 UTC ALY sounding show a very moisture rich and tall/skinny CAPE profile including PWATs near 1.80" which is nearly 2.5 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS. Also our freezing level is quite high at around 13kft. This environment will support efficient warm rain processes and potential for heavy downpours. Otherwise, a sfc warm front remain positioned to our south around the I-84 corridor with east-northeasterly winds along the interstate and southwesterly and even westerly winds to the south in NJ. While we should have break for mainly dry conditions through 17 UTC or so, a sharp wind shift boundary currently in western NY is quickly tracking eastward. Water vapor imagery in western/central NY shows a weak MCV signature along the boundary likely where a weak sfc low is developing along the triple point where the warm front, cold front, and occluded boundary meet. As this boundary and sfc low push eastward, an area of showers and thunderstorm will increase in coverage. While we have widespread cloud coverage in place this morning, any breaks of sun will easily contribute to increased instability thanks to high dew points in the 60s. Just how much sun occurs remains uncertain but high res guidance continues to indicate at least some breaks of sun should occur ahead of the wind shift boundary/triple point. The HREF and other CAMs suggest up to 1000 - 1500 J/kg of SB CAPE will develop ahead of the boundary thanks to breaks of sun with the best chance for breaks of sun mainly along and west of the Hudson River. While shear this morning remain paltry, as the boundary approaches, the kinematics should increase with 0-6km shear reaching around 30kts while 0-3km shear is limited to just 20-25kts. While low- level speed shear is weak with the stronger winds in the higher levels of the boundary layer, it is worth noting that the directional shear in the lowest levels is quite impressive as southeasterly winds abruptly shift to west- southwest behind the boundary late this afternoon into the early evening. This will provide strong low- level forcing to enhance lift/ascent for rain and embedded thunderstorms to develop. While thunderstorms will likely develop along the incoming wind shift boundary, the main question is whether or not they will become severe. Overall, instability and shear are rather weak and so are mid-level lapse rates which are around 5.5C/km but with a wedge of dry air in the wake of the incoming boundary, DCAPE values get a little interesting increasing to 500J/kg which could support damaging winds. However, the coverage of these higher DCAPE values look limited so overall confidence for severe weather is low. But, the impressive wind shift boundary and low-level forcing still makes us uneasy and we will maintain a close watch on radar trends through the afternoon and evening (3pm - 9pm) when the wind shift boundary swings through the region. Agree with the Marginal Risk from SPC given the environment parameters in place. Should we see more breaks of sun through early afternoon, there will be an increased risk for severe weather and we will collaborate with SPC and neighboring WFOs to evaluate if the convective outlook should be adjusted. The very moist environment today will also support heavy downpours from any storms as well. Storms should not train over a given area and should be progressive so not expecting widespread flooding. However, poor drainage flooding is certainly possible for quick heavy downpours producing a 0.50 - 1 inch of rain in a short period of time from the efficient warm rain processes. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For Friday, our closed low finally pushes eastward towards Eastern NY with the leading edge of the cold pool pushing into the area by 15 UTC or so. Morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds as the mid-level moisture spills overhead. Scattered showers develop along the leading edge of the intruding cold pool and mid-level moisture by 15 - 18 UTC for areas mainly north and west of the Capital District. Forecast soundings show we will have a very shallow boundary layer under the cold pool with equilibrium levels only around 15kft or so. This will shrink our CAPE potential and lead to very shallow low-level convection. Thus, we do expect any severe weather but a few lightning strikes are likely as up to around 500 J/kg of CAPE develop. Some small hail is also not ruled out as wet-bulb zero heights drop under 10kft. Winds shift to the northwest behind the leading edge of the cold in the afternoon leading to slightly breezy conditions as wind becomes sustained 10-15kts and gusts up to 20-25kts. Scattered showers and possible storms spread south and east of Albany by 21 UTC and expand into western New England. Given the delayed onset of showers/storms, temperatures here will have a better chance of reaching into the low 80s. With dew points only in the 50s, it will feel much less humid as well. Areas north/west of the Capital District should be cooler only reaching into the low to mid 70s with 60s in the southern Adirondacks. Previous discussion...So, with some peeks of sun potentially each morning before convective clouds form, producing a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky, temperatures will reach the 70s to near 80 Friday and around 70 to mid 70s Saturday, with some 60s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... We remain under the influence of the upper-low through the beginning of the work week before high pressure builds in from the west and forces the return to dry, warm weather... By the start of the long term forecast period, the upper-low will be located overhead, sprawled across the Ontario/Quebec border. Broad cyclonic flow will help to maintain a relatively moist airmass, leading to persistent clouds and additional rounds of showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder Sunday and Monday as a weak wind shift boundary pushes through the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity looks to be relatively scattered in nature and will likely remain primarily diurnally driven with daytime heating will aid in increased instability. By Monday night, the upper-low looks to finally make its exit from our overhead as it continues to weaken and push further north and east. Guidance shows there could be an additional round of showers and possible embedded rumbles of thunder Tuesday afternoon as upper troughing looks to break away from the main low pressure core and linger across the Northeast but these would once again be relatively scattered and light in nature. The upper trough then looks to be forced eastward as upper-level heights increase in response to a mid/upper-level ridge building in across the region from the west. With surface high pressure advancing in tandem with the upper ridge, dry conditions will be returned to eastern New York and western New England for Tuesday night through at least Wednesday before a shortwave disturbance threatens to disturb the tranquility for Thursday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range primarily from the mid/upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of upper 50s to low 60s above 1500 ft and upper 70s in the Hudson Valley. Tuesday begins the warming trend with temperatures increasing to the upper 60s to upper 70s before we rise back into the low 70s to low and possibly mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures throughout the period will generally range from the upper 40s to low/mid 50s through Tuesday night with Wednesday increasing to the low to upper 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12z Friday...MVFR conditions prevail at all terminals with the exception of KPSF whose ceiling has dropped to IFR heights. Showers have not been as extensive thus far this morning as what was previously expected, so outside of a stray sprinkle or two, expect primarily dry conditions into this afternoon. There is some uncertainty with ceiling heights today as model soundings show some pockets of dry air cutting into the lower levels later this morning. However, generally ceiling heights should remain within MVFR thresholds with brief improvements to VFR possible throughout this morning. This afternoon, MVFR heights should steadily return as scattered thunderstorms develop. PROB30 groups were added to the TAF groups for expected convection between 21z-01z. Thunderstorms could drop ceilings to IFR heights with MVFR visibilities. However, IFR visibilities are also possible should a heavier downpour cross into the terminals. Once convection ceases shortly after sunset due to lack of daytime heating to drive instability, conditions will gradually improve possibly back up to VFR conditions. Winds throughout the 12z TAF period will be light and variable to start, then increasing to sustained speeds of 5-10 kt out of the southeast by this afternoon. By the end of the 12z cycle, winds will decrease to speeds of 2-5 kt at variable directions. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. Rainfall amounts of around 1 inch are expected with localized amounts up to 2 inches. Some thunderstorms will contain heavy rain and could produce localized ponding of water on roadways, urban and small stream flooding and standing water in low lying areas. No flooding of main stem rivers is expected. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday through the weekend but less widespread and lighter, with additional amounts of perhaps up to a half inch of rain through the weekend. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS/Speciale NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale SHORT TERM...NAS/Speciale LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Main HYDROLOGY...NAS