624
FXUS61 KALY 071518
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1118 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds today as a closed low moves overhead
resulting in additional areas of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. Even cooler, breezy, and mostly cloudy conditions
return for Saturday with some enhanced lake effect and scattered
diurnal driven rain showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 11am, the leading edge of our upper level closed low and
associated upper level cold pool is intruding into the Mohawk
Valley and southern Adirondacks and will continue progressing
eastward through the next few hours. Early sun combined with
dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s assisted in generating
some weak surface based instability with the SPC mesoanalysis
page showing about 500 J/kg of sfc based instability in place.
As the upper level cold pool progresses further east, lapse
rates steepen and we warm towards our respective convective
temperature, showers will increase in coverage this afternoon
and progress from west to east with a few areas of low-topped
convection likely developing as well. Most favorable conditions
for lightning looks to be mainly along and north of I-90 closer
to the cold pool. GLM and ground truth observations shows some
low- topped convection already forming in the North Country and
west/central NY. The ALY 12 UTC sounding showed low equilibrium
heights under 20kft so storms will not have to grow tall to
generate lightning.

Much lower dew points today has alleviated humidity. Highs in
the 70s for much of eastern NY and western New England today
with areas in the Hudson Valley from the Capital Region
southward into the mid- Hudson Valley reaching near 80. Cooler
temperatures only topping out around 70 in the higher terrain of
the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Decrease in coverage of showers this evening, then just isolated
to scattered showers for the western Mohawk Valley and southern
Adirondacks the rest of the night. Breaks in the clouds
elsewhere.

There is an increasing agreement in sources of
guidance/ensembles for a small upper ridge in our region much of
Saturday, between the exiting upper closed low and trailing
upper energy in Canada and the Great Lakes. There will still be
some upper dynamics and exiting cold pool aloft, so isolated to
scattered afternoon showers are possible but outdoor activities
Saturday could be mostly dry, especially in the Hudson Valley
and Lake George Saratoga Region to western New England. However,
it could be quite breezy, too, with highs Saturday in the 70s
with around 60 to mid 60s higher terrain.

The upper energy in the Great Lakes tracks generally along the
U.S./Canada border Sunday into Monday, merging with the upper
low in northern New England and SE Canada. So, another upper
cold pool and upper dynamics will support more widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms late Saturday night through
much of Sunday. Highs Sunday around 70 to mid 70s with 60s
higher terrain. Showers exit late Sunday afternoon and evening
and just isolated to scattered showers linger through the night
in the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another disturbance helps to reinforce upper level trough across the
region Monday. Cold air aloft associated with the trough/disturbance
should allow for isolated to scattered showers to develop with
diurnal heating by Monday afternoon, before tapering off Monday
night.

Height rises should allow for fair weather for Tuesday, however
lingering cold air aloft could allow for isolated afternoon showers,
especially across higher terrain areas. Depending on the track of
another upper level disturbance, some showers could occur Wednesday
into Thursday as well, especially for higher elevations.

Below normal temperatures Monday should trend to near to above
normal levels by Thursday, with highs in the 60s/70s Monday, warming
to the lower/mid 80s in most valleys and 75-80 for higher elevations
by Thursday. Overnight lows in the 40s/50s Monday-Tuesday night, and
50s to lower 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any low clouds/fog should lift between 12Z-14Z/Fri, with VFR
conditions then prevailing. Isolated to scattered rain showers
will develop this afternoon, and could result in brief periods
of MVFR Vsbys, perhaps even a few minutes of IFR. A few rumbles
of thunder could accompany any heavier showers.

Showers should decrease in coverage between 22Z/Fri-02Z/Sat,
with clouds persisting with Cigs of 5000-7000 FT AGL. Cigs may
lower into borderline MVFR range after 08Z/Sat at KGFL and KALB.

Light/variable to calm winds will become southwest at 4-8 KT by
mid morning, then west to southwest at 5-10 KT this afternoon
and tonight.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any heavier showers.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/Speciale
NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL