Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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796 FXUS61 KALY 250745 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 345 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged period of dry weather will finally come to an end today and tonight as widespread rains move of the region. Dry will will return for the weekend, with additional chances for rain then expected by Tuesday and Tuesday night of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Early morning radar imagery showing scattered shwrs across the westerly Mohawk Vly and southern Adirondacks, with additional returns beginning to develop over the western Catskills. Activity will continue sliding to the northeast this morning for a few hours before gradually decreasing in coverage towards daybreak. Following this, expect much of the fcst area to see dry conditions through mid morning through early afternoon, before the next round of shwrs begins advancing north towards our area late in the day. This second round will be more widespread in nature as strong upper support in the form of a well defined upper wave begins approaching from the northeast. As a result, have increased pops across the board tonight, and again through much of the day on Thursday as main cold front begins to slide across the area. HRRR and 3K NAM show developing convection possible across southern zones during the late morning and afternoon on Thursday, however minimal CAPE should keep thunder activity fairly sparse in coverage. After a prolonged dry spell, much beneficial rain will be had over the area, with widespread 0.75 to 1.25 inch rainfall totals expected. For now, the heaviest am amounts are expected to fall along and north of the I-90 corridor, with lesser amounts to the south. Hydro issues are not expected due to very dry antecedent conditions. With clouds and rain expected across the area today and tomorrow, temperatures will be on the cooler side with low to upper 60s expected today, with slightly warmer temps expected tomorrow as warm air lifts north ahead of cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain comes to an end Thursday night with high pressure then expected to bring clearing skies and dry conditions through much of the upcoming weekend and early next week. Ridging aloft will become more pronounced as we move into the latter stages of the weekend as the remnants of now Tropical Storm Helene impact the Tennessee Vly and Southeast. This should result in near to slightly above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s, with lows falling into the during the day upper 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging begins to break down by the beginning of next week as northern stream wave begins digging into the northern Great Lakes. Despite this, dry weather will continue through Monday before shwrs are once again possible Tuesday and Tuesday night as main cold front approaches from the west. High temps will remain at or slightly above normal with mid/upper 60s to low 70s expected during the day, and upper 40s to low 50s expected during the overnight periods. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Wednesday...Mixed VFR/MVFR flying conditions ongoing as rain showers track into the region from the west. MVFR vsbys within showers are expected at all terminals by 08-10Z Tue, with cigs trending downward slightly, but remaining VFR/MVFR. A break in shower activity later this morning will see renewed VFR vsbys, which will continue through the early afternoon. A second batch of rain showers after 18-20Z Tue will yield MVFR cigs/vsbys at all terminals, with cigs/vsbys trending downward possibly to IFR after 00Z Wed. East to southeast winds at ALB/POU/PSF at 5-10 kt will continue through much of the period, becoming southeast to south after 18-20Z Tue. At GFL, calm winds through the remainder of the overnight period will give way to southeast winds at 5-10 kt after 12-15Z Tue. Outlook... Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...32 NEAR TERM...32 SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...Picard