758
FXUS64 KAMA 270808
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
308 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Warm and dry for the next seven days.

A couple cold front may enter the area next week, but are expected
to be weak.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

High pressure continues over the area during the short term
period. 500 mb heights slowly rise over the weekend, but short
range models propose that we still stay below 590 decameters for
the next two days. Poor moisture quality and high pressure at the
surface will keep the message of "warm and dry" active through
the weekend and into next week.

90 degree temperatures may overtake additional locations this
afternoon as our warming trend slowly progresses. Otherwise, mid
to upper 80 degree highs are forecast; particularly, for areas in
the northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle. Light
and somewhat variable winds will be present for the next 48 hours.
Closer to Saturday is when winds will attempt to unify in
direction, that being from the northeast. Winds will be too light
to have an affect on the surface temperatures on Saturday. Highs
will continue to range between the upper 80`s and lower 90`s. Sky
conditions will be mostly clear for both today and tomorrow.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Upper level high pressure prolongs over the CWA through much of
the extended. Heights rise this weekend, but then they retreat
some after Monday. This is due to a couple of troughs that are
progged enter through the High Plains and allow heights to
decrease slightly through the rest of the week.

Above average temperatures dominate the extended period, with
Monday forecast to be the hottest day of the new week. Low to mid
90`s are expected to return almost area wide. Fortunately, no
fire weather concerns are present since surface winds will be
light. On Tuesday, we could experience a slight cool down, with
high temperatures dipping back down into the 70`s and 80`s.
However, there are still concern about the strength of the front.
Rather, how the NBM may be over doing the temperature disparity,
as surface winds are not forecast to be strong during the frontal
passage and the source of the CAA is arriving from the Pacific
Northwest. Still, there should be some relief on Tuesday but by
Wednesday the 90`s are back in the forecast. This trend will
continue until next weekend where we could see the entrance of our
next frontal system. The timing and strength is still to be
determined, but model consensus is shown by keeping the Panhandles
dry for the next 7 days and beyond. No incoming fronts next week
are anticipated to introduce precipitation.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the new 06Z TAF period. Light and
somewhat variable winds will continue for the next 24 hours at all
sites. Mostly clear skies will be present tonight and through the
day time.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                90  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  53  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              87  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  92  56  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              90  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  88  55  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               87  57  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 88  52  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  87  52  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                91  56  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                87  56  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   87  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                87  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              89  58  91  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55