275
FXUS64 KAMA 141755
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low pressure
system sitting over southern CA about to be just south of the
southern tip of NV. This system is progged to open into a
shortwave trough and traverse the combined Panhandles. This will
bring some thunderstorms chances late this evening into the
overnight hours. These storms will primarily impact the western to
northwestern combined Panhandles.

Today, upper level ridging continues to plague the combined
Panhandles with some really warm temperatures as highs reach the
mid to upper 90s once again. Positive H7 theta-e advection of 330
to 340K will be in place over the northwestern third to half of
the combined Panhandles again today. This good moisture advection
will be helpful for thunderstorms to work with as the leading edge
of the aforementioned shortwave approaches the FA later today.
Severe storms cannot be ruled out as there is a potential for
effective CAPE values between 800 (RAP) and 2500 J/Kg (NAM). The
higher of this being towards Cimarron County. Bulk shear is
progged to be around 15 to 30 kts depending on which model is
looked at. Regardless of the CAPE and shear, conditions still
favor high based storms with DCAPE values approaching 1800 J/Kg
allowing for damaging winds to be the main concern.

For Sat, the aforementioned shortwave trough will suppress H5
heights slightly allowing for afternoon highs to be in the lower
90s instead of mid to upper 90s. Positive H7 theta-e advection
will continue into much of the combined Panhandles for Sat leading
to additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. With out the
help of the leading edge of the shortwave trough, thunderstorms
will need a little bit of extra help from convective temperatures
or perturbations in the flow aloft. Have about a 20 to 30 percent
chance for these thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the
overnight hours. Severe storms once again cannot be ruled out with
damaging straight line winds the main threat. Bulk shear looks
very marginal with effective CAPE values around 1000 J/Kg. Again,
high based storms are expected with DCAPE values between 1000 and
1500 J/Kg.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Have stayed with the NBM values for the forecast in the extended
period. Afternoon temperatures are progged to return to the mid to
upper 90s Sunday through Tuesday with no real chances for
precipitation during this time. Tue night an upper level trough
will dig down the Intermountain West and approach the FA bringing
some suppression to the H5 heights of the combined Panhandles.
This is to bring some cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s to
possibly lower 90s Wed onward and will also bring back some PoPs
into the forecast. Tue night will be when some slight chance to
chance PoPs return to the combined Panhandles as well.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

TAFs are conditionally VFR through the new 18Z period.
Thunderstorms are possible at all TAF sites later this evening and
through the night time hours. Some storms could be severe, and
heavy rainfall will drop ceilings and visibility to MVFR,
possibly IFR if a persistent core can move directly over a
terminal. Later in the morning, some rouge shower activity could
persist in the vicinity of the terminals, but few impacts are
expected at this time. Winds speeds at the surface will increase
later on tomorrow afternoon from the south.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  92  67  95 /  40  30  20   0
Beaver OK                  68  92  68  99 /  30  30  20  10
Boise City OK              61  93  64  98 /  60  20  10  10
Borger TX                  69  97  69 100 /  40  30  20   0
Boys Ranch TX              66  95  66  97 /  60  30  20   0
Canyon TX                  65  92  65  94 /  40  30  20   0
Clarendon TX               67  91  67  92 /  20  20  20   0
Dalhart TX                 61  93  62  97 /  60  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  64  94  64  97 /  50  30  10  10
Hereford TX                66  94  66  95 /  50  20  20   0
Lipscomb TX                69  94  68  97 /  20  30  20   0
Pampa TX                   67  92  68  94 /  30  30  20   0
Shamrock TX                69  94  70  95 /  10  20  20   0
Wellington TX              69  95  70  95 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...55