Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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727 FXUS64 KAMA 171725 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Another shot at storms is in store this afternoon and evening, as well as warm temperatures in the 90s expected once again. Southwest flow aloft should allow for a deepening lee sfc low today, with a dry line taking shape somewhere over the western to central Panhandles this afternoon. Daytime heating and 50s to 60s dew pts east of the dryline will build up about 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE for thunderstorm development, but notable capping will be a prominent concern for convective initiation today. If some scattered storms form, 20-30 kt bulk shear could support organized updrafts capable of severe wind and hail. With forecast soundings depicting steep low level lapse rates, ~2000 J/kg DCAPE, and inverted V signatures, damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard. As we get closer to this afternoon, CAMs are still split on whether or not the cap can break, lending to only 15-20% POPs across the western two thirds of the CWA. Regardless, winds will be noticeably breezier out of the south this evening into tomorrow, thanks to a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low level jet. At their peak expect 20-30 mph sustained winds gusting up to 40 mph at times, gradually diminishing through tomorrow night. Tomorrow, stronger southwest winds aloft spread over the Panhandles, bringing a minor disturbance to the Plains. A cluster of storms is expected to develop in southwest KS Tue evening along the dryline, potentially impacting northern portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle with winds, hail, and heavy rain. Although confidence is higher that these storms will develop, there`s still uncertainty as to whether or not they would exist as far south as the OK Panhandle (15-25% chance). Further south of this area, capping should remain in place, but we could see additional storms develop if the cap were to erode. Overnight lows remain on the mild side for coming nights, only dipping to the 60s and 70s. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Latest 17/00Z model and numerical guidance continues to show moisture advection from a subtropical disturbance right along the Texas Gulf Coast. With a predominant H500 high centered over the Mid Atlantic, in-conjunction with a digging trough over the western CONUS, the predominant steering flow of the moisture advection will move towards west Texas. How far north into the Panhandles the better moisture advection will reach remains in question. As of the current forecast, the southern and western combined Panhandles is most favored on the edge of the best steering flow. Will have to watch the main aforementioned H500 high pressure system extension west into the Panhandles by later this week, which could suppress moisture advection into the region. As of the current forecast, log-p profiles are showing moisture transport values up to (+)3 S.D. PWAT values in association with the subtropical system. This could reach near record values for sounding climatology for AMA with values between 1.6" and 1.8". With very good moisture in place, along with subtle perturbations around the periphery of the H700-500 high, showers and thunderstorms are possible (30-40%), especially for the southern and western Panhandles. The main broad high pressure should eventually spread back to the west across the southern High Plains with the better moisture steering flow across New Mexico. By the coming weekend, ridge rollers will aid our rain chances for diurnally driven convection, favoring the northern and western Panhandles. With rain chances Wed through Fri, temperatures will be "below" average for late June, but with the humidity streaming up from the Gulf Coast, it will feel quite muggy. HIgh temperatures return to above average by this coming weekend towards the end of the forecast period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Breezy to gusty southwesterly surface winds will remain at all the terminals through the afternoon and evening hours. Potential does exist for showers and thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon and early evening with damaging winds being the main threat from any severe thunderstorm. However, chances of develop remain low this afternoon (15 to 20% at best) with confidence in any actual impacts to the terminals too low for any mention in the 18Z package. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to hold into the overnight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 71 92 69 87 / 20 10 20 20 Beaver OK 72 95 69 89 / 10 10 30 30 Boise City OK 68 97 62 84 / 10 10 20 40 Borger TX 74 97 72 92 / 20 10 20 20 Boys Ranch TX 71 96 69 89 / 20 10 20 30 Canyon TX 69 91 67 86 / 20 10 10 20 Clarendon TX 71 90 68 84 / 10 10 10 10 Dalhart TX 66 98 64 87 / 10 10 20 40 Guymon OK 70 95 66 87 / 20 10 30 30 Hereford TX 70 95 68 88 / 20 10 10 20 Lipscomb TX 71 93 69 89 / 10 0 20 20 Pampa TX 71 91 69 86 / 10 10 10 20 Shamrock TX 71 92 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 Wellington TX 72 92 69 87 / 10 10 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...11