065
FXUS64 KAMA 210856
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
356 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Evening observations show one thing is for sure: there`s still an
abundance of moisture hanging around the Panhandles. Our 00z
observed sounding along with mesoanalysis suggests PWAT values
are already near or exceeding climatological maximum values for
the day (around 1.50"). These values are progged to increase
through the day as tropical moisture from the remnants of Alberto
rounds the periphery of an upper high pressure system dominating
the eastern CONUS. Theta-e advection combined with any subtle wave
of energy that may find its way to the Panhandles could help
spark some precipitation over parts of the area today. CAMs hint
that showers with some embedded thunder could enter the southern
Texas Panhandle early this morning, which doesn`t appear far
fetched given the fact we`re already seeing a slight glimpse of
this show up on radar as of 2 AM. This trend of scattered activity
moving northward through the day will likely persist until we
lose daytime heating in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Not everyone will see rain today, with the western to central
Texas Panhandle currently having the best odds (~20-40%), but
we`ll have to wait and see just how far north and east any showers
might spread. CAMs also suggest activity will be rather light and
won`t produce too much rain accumulation, generally only a few
hundredths to a tenth or two of an inch at best. This is plausible
given only marginal instability, lack of deeper convection, and
quick motions expected. However, if any development can become
more convective and tap into whatever fuel is available, brief
heavy downpours capable of producing 0.25-0.5" of rain can`t be
ruled out, especially given the anomalously high PWATs in place.
Cloud cover will keep highs in the 80s today, and stronger
southwest winds of about 25-35 mph can be found in the northwest
combined Panhandles where a tighter pressure gradient will exist.

Saturday kicks off a stout warming trend with highs rebounding
into the 90s thanks to rising 850mb temps as high pressure begins
to migrate westward. Moisture content will stick around as well,
although not quite as impressive as today`s. Models hint that a
stalled boundary could be situated somewhere over the area by
tomorrow afternoon-evening, possibly initiating another round of
showers and storms with heavy rain potential. Currently looking at
about a 20% probability of anything happening with this boundary,
but that number may go up in upcoming outlooks. Look for
decreasing winds by Saturday night and warm overnight lows
continuing to hold in the 60s and 70s.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature
in our weather pattern from Sunday through Thursday. This will
generally result in above normal temperatures through the period.
It appears at this time that the overall warmest days will be
Monday through Wednesday with high temperatures across many
locations approaching or exceeding 100 degrees. Heat Index values
may approach or exceed 105 degrees on the aforementioned days
across parts of the area, and Heat Advisories may be needed on one
or more of those days as well. Precipitation chances Sunday through
Thursday will strongly depend on the overall strength of the upper
level high pressure as well as how much of our forecast area sits
beneath it. Medium range models suggest some potential wobbling
of the ridge axis at times during the extended periods. NBM pops
and temperatures are reasonable given the progged synoptic pattern
and were accepted with no adjustments to the grids needed.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are in place for now, but a shield of mid to low
clouds is progressing northward into the Panhandles this
evening. By morning hours, MVFR ceilings should have arrived at
KAMA and KDHT, with slightly lower confidence that low ceilings
will impact KGUY. Ceilings should lift some to VFR levels during
the day as winds increase out of the southwest at 15-30 kts. Also
can`t rule out some afternoon showers at KAMA and KDHT, but
confidence remains on the low side. Otherwise expect conditions
to further improve through the end of the period after 00z.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                83  69  95  72 /  30  20   0  10
Beaver OK                  88  72  96  69 /  10  10   0  10
Boise City OK              83  68  93  65 /  20  10  10  10
Borger TX                  88  73 100  73 /  20  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              85  69  96  69 /  30  20   0  20
Canyon TX                  82  67  93  68 /  30  20   0  10
Clarendon TX               84  69  93  71 /  20  10   0  10
Dalhart TX                 83  66  94  65 /  30  10   0  20
Guymon OK                  86  69  95  67 /  10  10   0  10
Hereford TX                83  68  95  69 /  30  20   0  10
Lipscomb TX                88  73  98  72 /  10  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   85  70  95  71 /  20  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                88  70  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              88  70  96  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...38