950
FXUS64 KAMA 141124
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low pressure
system sitting over southern CA about to be just south of the
southern tip of NV. This system is progged to open into a
shortwave trough and traverse the combined Panhandles. This will
bring some thunderstorms chances late this evening into the
overnight hours. These storms will primarily impact the western to
northwestern combined Panhandles.

Today, upper level ridging continues to plague the combined
Panhandles with some really warm temperatures as highs reach the
mid to upper 90s once again. Positive H7 theta-e advection of 330
to 340K will be in place over the northwestern third to half of
the combined Panhandles again today. This good moisture advection
will be helpful for thunderstorms to work with as the leading edge
of the aforementioned shortwave approaches the FA later today.
Severe storms cannot be ruled out as there is a potential for
effective CAPE values between 800 (RAP) and 2500 J/Kg (NAM). The
higher of this being towards Cimarron County. Bulk shear is
progged to be around 15 to 30 kts depending on which model is
looked at. Regardless of the CAPE and shear, conditions still
favor high based storms with DCAPE values approaching 1800 J/Kg
allowing for damaging winds to be the main concern.

For Sat, the aforementioned shortwave trough will suppress H5
heights slightly allowing for afternoon highs to be in the lower
90s instead of mid to upper 90s. Positive H7 theta-e advection
will continue into much of the combined Panhandles for Sat leading
to additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. With out the
help of the leading edge of the shortwave trough, thunderstorms
will need a little bit of extra help from convective temperatures
or perturbations in the flow aloft. Have about a 20 to 30 percent
chance for these thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the
overnight hours. Severe storms once again cannot be ruled out with
damaging straight line winds the main threat. Bulk shear looks
very marginal with effective CAPE values around 1000 J/Kg. Again,
high based storms are expected with DCAPE values between 1000 and
1500 J/Kg.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Have stayed with the NBM values for the forecast in the extended
period. Afternoon temperatures are progged to return to the mid to
upper 90s Sunday through Tuesday with no real chances for
precipitation during this time. Tue night an upper level trough
will dig down the Intermountain West and approach the FA bringing
some suppression to the H5 heights of the combined Panhandles.
This is to bring some cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s to
possibly lower 90s Wed onward and will also bring back some PoPs
into the forecast. Tue night will be when some slight chance to
chance PoPs return to the combined Panhandles as well.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through about 00Z Sat or so.
There is a slight chance for some showers to impact KDHT or KGUY
before then. However, confidence is low at this time, with
increased confidence of thunderstorms picking up towards the
latter half of this period. Winds will be out of the south 5 to
15 kts with some gusts picking up to around 20 to 25 kts after
20Z. Thunderstorm winds in the last 6 hours of this period may
become variable and strong at times.

36


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                94  66  92  67 /  10  40  30  20
Beaver OK                  98  68  92  68 /   0  30  30  20
Boise City OK              93  61  93  64 /  40  60  20  10
Borger TX                  99  69  97  69 /  10  40  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              96  66  95  66 /  20  60  30  20
Canyon TX                  93  65  92  65 /  10  40  30  20
Clarendon TX               92  67  91  67 /   0  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 93  61  93  62 /  30  60  20  10
Guymon OK                  95  64  94  64 /  20  50  30  10
Hereford TX                95  66  94  66 /  10  50  20  20
Lipscomb TX                98  69  94  68 /   0  20  30  20
Pampa TX                   94  67  92  68 /  10  30  30  20
Shamrock TX                95  69  94  70 /   0  10  20  20
Wellington TX              96  69  95  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36