Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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123 FXUS64 KAMA 240529 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, though if a slightly more robust thunderstorm develops, gusty winds may occur. - Generally seasonable weather is expected Wednesday through Sunday with a very low chance for rain. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The Panhandles are now benefiting from the subsidence associated with the weather system that gave us all the weather this weekend, leading to a perfect day weather-wise; clear skies and below normal temperatures. An upper-level trough, currently subtly visible on upper-level water vapor satellite over southern Saskatchewan, will dig southeastward tonight and through tomorrow but will stay well off to the east of the Panhandles. A cold front along with some weak PVA will move into the Panhandles in the late morning hours. There may be some weak low- level moisture advection ahead of the cold front which may support the development of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms. Confidence is very low in this potential as the moisture content is still quite low in the wake of the potently cool/dry airmass that was introduced Sunday. Nonetheless, if a shower or thunderstorm can develop, it would be most favored in the southeastern TX Panhandle where moisture content is not abysmal (but still not great). Given there will be questionable moisture quality, potential instability is very much in question. If some decent instability can be realized, perhaps some gusty winds could occur but not anticipating any kind of severe thunderstorm potential. The cold front will move through the Panhandles in the afternoon hours. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The upper-level trough mentioned in the short-term discussion will move off to the east and become cut off from the jet stream, resulting in a stagnant upper-level pattern for the Panhandles with northerly to northeasterly flow aloft. Thursday, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is forecast to move toward the southeastern quadrant of the upper-level trough. Current guidance suggests there will be a Fujiwhara effect, and the then-ex-tropical cyclone will rotate around the upper-level trough through this weekend. Can`t entirely rule out an embedded disturbance within the flow aloft to bring a chance for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the long-term as we`re stuck in northerly flow aloft, but predicting that, and whether or not there will be sufficient moisture, is quite a challenging task at this range. Expecting generally seasonable weather in the long-term with a very low chance for rain, though a westward shift in the upper-level trough may increase the rain chances. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Skies are expected to remain VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots will turn to the north at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts behind a cold front that will move through the TAF sites between 14Z and 18Z. Winds will then decrease with sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 85 53 82 52 / 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 80 49 81 48 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 78 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 88 54 86 52 / 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 85 51 84 51 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 85 52 82 50 / 10 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 87 56 84 54 / 20 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 80 47 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 80 47 81 47 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 86 52 83 52 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 84 52 82 51 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 85 52 82 51 / 10 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 87 55 84 53 / 20 10 0 0 Wellington TX 90 57 86 54 / 20 10 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...15