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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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515 FXUS64 KAMA 190538 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1238 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 906 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A line of strong to severe storms have finally moved into Texas and Beaver counties in the Oklahoma Panhandle. The atmosphere remains favorable for a few storms to remain strong to severe with the primary hazards being large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding. The weak showers/storms that developed around Amarillo/Canyon have dissipated and additional storm development is highly unlikely the rest of the night. Have removed mentionable PoPs across much of the Texas Panhandle through the rest of the night. Other forecast elements remain on track through sunrise tomorrow morning. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 As of this afternoon, latest satellite and ground sensors are seeing the expected cold frontal boundary finally slow just north of eastern portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle. This frontal boundary will play a key role in getting any thunderstorms to develop later today and possibly Wednesday as many models are still expecting it to stall over our area. Meanwhile to our west, the other half of the front is now integrating into the short-wave trof moving through, which in turn is helping push the dry line back into western most counties. Currently, latest observations is showing said dry boundary running roughly from Stratford, TX to Tucumcari, NM. Should this sharpen and progress a little further in then potential for storms in the south will also increase for the day with many of the CAMs already increasing the odds with their latest runs. However, there is still a decent cap over the area which may keep development limited. Regardless, potential for any thunderstorm that develop to turn severe is present with MLCAPE values running around 2500 J/kg and DCAPE pushing 1700 to 1800 J/kg. The biggest issue will be shear as latest guidance is not seeing much more than 20 to 25kt, which will make storms harder to stay sustain. This will also make the chances for tornadoes much lower, though a landspout forming off a boundary cant be fully ruled out either. As we head into Wednesday, models are still settling on the more southerly track for the tropical disturbance that is currently in the Gulf of Mexico. This track will push most of the heavier moisture into Mexico and southern portions of Texas, but we should still see an increase as will with most model seeing PWATS around 1.5 inches. This does give us the potential for shower and thunderstorms tomorrow that could produce heavier rainfall for the day, but that will only come to pass should the front push further south into our area and hold. Otherwise, expect a temperature drop to coincide with both the increase in moisture and front boundary. Expect most locations to go from the low to mid 90s today to 80s for Wednesday afternoon. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For Thursday through Monday, medium range models and ensemble members suggest the upper level ridge of high pressure will expand westward to encompass roughly most of the southern one third of the United States as the western states upper level trof weakens and translates eastward across the north central states. The latest 12Z medium range models and associated ensembles have maintained the trend towards a stronger upper level ridge which would act to steer the potential tropical system more westward and into northeast Mexico with only very limited impacts with respect to moisture advection into our forecast area for Thursday. Refer to the latest NHC bulletins for more information on this potential tropical cyclone. The latest NBM pops have trended down more for Thursday and Thursday night. In fact, NBM pops for Friday through Monday have also lowered further compared to 24 hours ago as most medium range deterministic and corresponding ensemble members are projecting our region to be more under the influence of the upper level ridge. Given reasonable medium range model agreement, have sided with the NBM pops for Friday through Monday. The close proximity of the ridge of high pressure also supports NBM temperatures for all periods of the long term forecast. 02 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period at KAMA/KDHT and IFR conditions currently to start the TAF period at KGUY. +TSRA is expected for the first 1 to 3 hours of the TAF period for KGUY. Could see some TSRA conditions at KDHT as well before 12Z, and will AMD accordingly. MVFR cigs expected past 09Z at all TAF sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period, with some IFR cigs at times. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10-15 kts. The exception could be for TSRA conditions over TAF sites with strong and erratic winds at times. Could see VCTS conditions continuing at times for KDHT/KGUY through around 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 86 64 81 66 / 30 40 30 30 Beaver OK 86 64 87 66 / 60 30 10 10 Boise City OK 78 60 83 62 / 60 40 20 20 Borger TX 91 67 87 69 / 50 40 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 88 64 84 65 / 50 50 30 40 Canyon TX 85 63 79 64 / 30 40 30 40 Clarendon TX 85 64 78 65 / 20 20 30 20 Dalhart TX 84 60 83 62 / 60 50 30 30 Guymon OK 82 62 85 65 / 60 40 10 10 Hereford TX 87 64 80 65 / 30 40 40 40 Lipscomb TX 88 65 86 67 / 50 20 20 10 Pampa TX 86 64 82 66 / 40 30 20 20 Shamrock TX 88 66 83 67 / 20 20 30 20 Wellington TX 88 67 83 68 / 10 20 30 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...29