Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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132 FXUS63 KAPX 140125 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 925 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Trending considerably warmer and more humid Sunday and beyond. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s possible Monday and Tuesday. - Various chances of showers and storms at times Sunday night and into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Cold front (reinforced by earlier outflow air) is settling into central lower MI. The boundary is still evident on our radar, reaching Clare and Gladwin Cos. A few showers continue to get kicked off, along and just on the cool side of the front, especially in our far se. That sort of thing will continue for another hour or two, before exiting south of this forecast area. Upstream, spotty diurnal showers are seen in western upper MI and far northern WI. Cloud cover and precip coverage in this area is starting to diminish. CAMs do not have a great handle on this precip area, but an overall decreasing trend is expected to continue. We should see an increase in cloud cover in eastern upper and nw lower MI overnight, and maybe a stray shower isn`t impossible, but prefer to keep the forecast dry for now. Min temps from mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Some patchy fog seems possible, especially where it rained today, as the pressure gradient is not tight enough to prevent gradual decoupling in sheltered locales. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Thunderstorms developed across central upper earlier this afternoon and this activity is presently drifting into eastern upper. These storms are expected to move southeast out of that area over the next hour or two. Across northern lower, little to no activity thus far. Do expect isolated activity to develop out ahead of approaching cold front. Still can`t rule out a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. The front moves through this evening with clearing skies and diminishing winds behind it. In addition, it will gradually feel less humid with drier air moving in. Surface high pressure moves over the region Friday yielding mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. Cooler tonight with lows ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. Highs Friday ranging from around 70 north to the middle 70s south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Troughing regime over northeast North America set to break down as a thermal ridge flexes overhead by the end of the weekend, commencing the return of warmth with a vengeance. As the 500mb thermal ridge anchors itself over the Carolinas next week, this will lead to a quick flow around the periphery of the ridge from WSW to ENE, right over northern Michigan. This flow around the fringes of the ridge will result in the potential for convective waves to pass through the region at times next week, with temperatures in the 80s and possibly well into the 90s for some at various times. Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation: High pressure keeps things on the dry side Saturday before a wave cresting the ridge axis passes through the region. This will bring about the potential for showers and storms. Admittedly, some uncertainty regarding this feature`s exact track. This theme continues into next week, with any ejecting convective wave originating from the plains being able to bring about showers and storms amid the warm and potentially unstable airmass overhead. Should be noted that this pattern is somewhat conducive for mesoscale convective systems (MCS) to ride along the ridge into the Great Lakes, which could lead to instances of lines of storms containing strong winds. These systems can vary in position, intensity, and timing with every run of guidance, so any forecast regarding individual thunderstorm complexes will have to be fine tuned perhaps a day or two in advance. Temperatures: A pleasant and somewhat more seasonable day in store for Saturday, with highs largely in the 70s (maybe 80s TVC?). Beyond this, temperatures swell into the 80s Sunday and surge well into the 90s across northern lower and upper 80s in the eastern Yoop at least for Monday and Tuesday. Some uncertainty is cast on how high temperatures will exactly climb owing to potential disruptions of heating from any storms that pass through the region. Should also be noted that dewpoints surging into the 60s and perhaps near 70 will add quite the humid feel to things, with overnight lows largely stalling in the mid 60s to lower 70s for most during this warm period... certainly an uncomfortable feel set to commence, especially for those without home cooling. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 751 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Precip has departed, as a cold front moves south out of the area. MVFR cigs possible this evening at CIU, otherwise VFR conditions expected, as drier air moves into northern MI. Winds will become nw and lighter tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JZ SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...JZ