Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
122 FXUS63 KAPX 241940 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 340 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues tonight, few rumbles of thunder? - Quiet weather for the rest of the week into the weekend - Well above normal high temperatures into early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Developing low pressure to our southwest over IL...as additional energy continues to dig into the Mid MS Valley just to its west. Focused band of rain expected to continue to hang out near the 131 corridor this afternoon into this evening along a subtle inverted trough axis...but eastward motion of the overall pattern suggests this will ultimately shift eastward as well overnight...with surface low expected to track into the Thumb and turn ever so slightly northward into Lake Huron going into Wednesday...before departing the region. Best chance for some rumbles of thunder over NE Lower this evening...where guidance soundings suggest better instability will be present. Rainy/dreary conditions expected to continue over much of the region (though the EUP could remain largely quiet)...with potential for some fog to develop again as winds should remain on the lighter side tonight with the trough axis passing through. Improving conditions expected Wednesday following departure of trough axis during the day...as high pressure begins to build back into the area. Still seasonable Wednesday, with highs largely in the 60s. Primary Forecast Concerns: Continued focus of rainfall over the 131 corridor toward Lake MI just south of our area has produced upwards of 1-2 inches thus far over parts of SW Lower...and will have to keep an eye on this going forward...as it may lead to increased rainfall totals over parts of Manistee/Wexford counties if it makes it in there this afternoon/tonight. Do think there will be some rain over this way through the remainder of the daylight hours into early tonight...though the great uncertainty is in how much of the rain ends up getting squeezed out over us...largely related to residence time over any areas. Currently thinking the slightly more progressive idea this evening compared to the current setup just to our southwest will keep rainfall totals from being as dramatic as elsewhere...but will be something to keep an eye on overnight. Meanwhile...NW-SE oriented band of precip stretching from Oscoda toward Atlanta this afternoon has been rather persistent the last hour or so...and do think this kind of thing could try to persist over NE Lower and parts of the EUP...and could become enhanced as deeper moisture slips overhead going into tonight, although do have some concerns that the incoming mid/high clouds could reduce the amount of diurnal heating/instability that has been playing into the Sunrise Side activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: That about puts a wrap on our "active" weather pattern, though some spots saw very little rainfall over the last few days. Strong ridging currently across the west coast moves east and folds over across the Great Lakes late this week into this weekend. Meanwhile, extended guidance is in good agreement that an upper level low sets up shop across the Tennessee Valley later this week. The interaction between this upper level low, tropical moisture from the tropical system moving through the Gulf of Mexico and the ridge over us is rather complex. The upper level low could eventually head north but it could also fall apart or turn off to the east before it reaches this far north. A better chance for rain is likely from a northern stream short wave approaching from the northwest early next week. Due to uncertainty, will continue with slight chance pops for later Sunday but wouldn`t be surprised if it took until Monday night or Tuesday before the region sees its next actual rainfall. Temperatures will be well above normal (by 10 to 15 degrees) with highs in the 70s to near 80 into Sunday (may as well enjoy it while you still can). Comfortable at night with lows in the 40s to low 50s. It does look like it will eventually turn cooler as we head into the middle of next week (which is just beyond the scope of this forecast). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 N-S oriented trough axis over Lake MI this afternoon...with developing surface low over IL...to track northeastward into the Thumb of MI and Lake Huron overnight. Expecting a moisture axis to linger over NW Lower (TVC/MBL...PLN?) this evening into the overnight (through about 8-10z), and expect IFR to LIFR cigs/visbys...though not impossible this axis hangs up a little further east. Elsewhere...TS possible for APN between 0-9z with any rain. Generally, IFR to LIFR cigs expected through the night, with slow improvement from west to east after daybreak Wednesday. Surface winds generally at or below 10kts with an easterly component, ultimately becoming northwesterly by morning (quickest at TVC, MBL). Not impossible to get some gusts around 15kts at times this afternoon where some breaks in the clouds form. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...FEF