Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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074 FXUS63 KAPX 190335 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1135 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and rain-free conditions through Thursday. - Rain chances emerge Friday into Friday night. Perhaps better rain chances later Sunday into Sunday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 No significant changes needed to the inherited forecast. Another mostly clear night expected, with some more patchy fog as temperatures cool back down into the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 More of the same through Thursday with high pressure remaining in control. Expect another coolish night tonight followed by a very warm day on Thursday. Patchy fog around again tonight with calm winds allowing temperatures to drop down to the saturation point. Not as cool tonight with lows generally in the low and mid 50s. Slightly warmer Thursday with highs in the low and mid 80s. These temperatures will challenge a few record highs for the date. Mainly clear skies tonight will likely mix with some diurnally driven cumulus Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain on the light side. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Will it ever rain again? The answer of course is yes, but when??? Low pressure currently evident on satellite imagery across eastern Montana and western sections of the Dakotas heads steadily northeast into central Canada Thursday into Friday. Northern Michigan will be on the southern extreme of this system with weak forcing/limited instability. A slightly more moist southerly flow may allow for showers and storms to our west across eastern Wisconsin to hold together just long enough to produce a few light showers across the forecast area (morning west and afternoon east). Confidence that this actually happens is low but guidance is trending that a little rain will survive but will continue with the ongoing slight/low chance pops due to the uncertainty. Fairly quiet weather is then expected to return Saturday into early Sunday with nearly zonal flow aloft. Another possible system later Sunday into Sunday night brings perhaps somewhat better chances for much needed rainfall. Extended guidance then varies on the timing/details of yet another possible trough toward the middle of next week leading to more chance pops. Temperatures look like they will cool some from recent levels but still end up a few degrees above average for later September. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Still expecting some MVFR to IFR producing fog and mist to develop early this morning, although overall extent and location of any fog/mist remains a low confidence forecast. Any fog/mist will burn off quickly after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under a few passing high clouds and high based cumulus. Light winds with local lake breezes developing by this afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MSB SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MSB