Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
692 FXUS63 KAPX 262300 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain/storms late Friday into Saturday. - Chilly night again Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A shortwave trough will continue to swing across the Great Lakes through the afternoon/evening. In conjunction with a lingering front draped across the lower peninsula and the aformentioned shortwave, enough forcing will be available for chances of showers/storms for areas east of I-75. Some showers have already begun to pop up in this area early this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure builds in from the northern Great Plains/central Canada into the Great Lakes by Thursday morning promoting less active and dryer weather. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Chance Showers/Storms this Afternoon/Evening: Rain/thunder chances should mainly be confined east of I-75, especially areas closer to the Lake Huron shoreline. Severe storms are not anticipated with any activity that develops today. Clouds will continue to decrease from west to east as dryer air works into the Great Lakes Region due to high pressure building overhead. Winds will decrease through the night becoming calm by midnight as cloud cover also decreases. With this, a seasonably cool night is expected with temperatures in the mid 40s for many interior areas and 50s for those closer to the lakeshores. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Amplified pattern across North America...with upper low over the Aleutians, another trough along the Pacific coast (with a potent niblet swinging into the PacNW attm), ridging over the SW US up into the Canadian Rockies...and another trough axis over the Upper Great Lakes. Dry 1022mb surface high aiding in dry advection into the Upper Great Lakes...in the wake of a PV niblet dropping over Lake Superior, and a secondary cold front stretching across Manitoba and Ontario...with 850mb temps in the single digits. Front from yesterday hanging up just to our south, stretching from the Lower Great Lakes into the central Plains...with the bulk of the deeper moisture remaining trapped along and south of this, where better convective activity from last night continues to diminish. Expecting current trough axis to meander out...with incoming shortwave ridging and attendant surface high pressure in its wake for tonight and Thursday. Return flow finally begins to pick up again Friday...with increasing lift and moisture ahead of another clipper system progged to slide through the Upper Midwest...bringing another round of unsettled/wet activity to the Great Lakes to wrap up the work week, and start the upcoming weekend. Cold front slips through Saturday...with a much cooler day (similar to today, perhaps) on tap for Sunday, as high pressure again settles into the Great Lakes for the start of next week. This, too, should be relatively short lived, with another system currently looking to develop over the central US going into midweek of next week. Assuming things progress as expected...or at least, somewhat similar to what is currently expected...think the pattern of unsettled weather every few days should hang on (for better or worse) into the fourth of July, though details remain unclear on how this occurs. Be sure to stay tuned to the forecast if you have fourth of July plans up here in northern Michigan`s beautiful Great Outdoors! Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain/storms late Friday into Saturday... Setup for late Friday afternoon into Friday night appears favorable for warm advection rain, at the very least...though less certain on how unstable we will be, which could preclude thunder chances (for the most part). Pwats look to approach 1.5in again, which certainly would be adequate to produce good rainfall, particularly noting warm cloud layers should reach up towards 3km again, reasonably favoring more efficient warm rain processes. Saturday, on the other hand, looks a little more intriguing, particularly depending on fropa timing...as we should be in the warm sector of this system ahead of an approaching cold front. While signals aren`t overly impressive attm...does appear we could have sufficient bulk shear aloft to work with, particularly if surface fropa ends up coinciding with peak heating/diurnal heating. It appears we should remain fairly moist/saturated in the boundary layer Saturday into Saturday morning, which should keep some clouds around...though not a sure bet that it will remain totally cloudy. Perhaps somewhat similarly to last weekend, it may not take very much heating to boost instability...particularly with some weaker stability slipping in ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon. Again...think the front will be one of the more determining factors with this...as there should be a reasonably stable layer to contend with in the lower levels...so will need something to help us achieve any elevated instability that develops. Chilly night again Sunday night... Similar to the current situation, 850mb temps fall Sunday into the single digits again with high pressure moving overhead. Assuming highs again only reach into the upper 60s...would be another situation where we end up with overnight lows dropping into the 40s, naturally...going into the start of July. Will be something to keep half an eye on as we go forward. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Large area of high pressure will continue to build into the Western Great Lakes tonight...with the high center holding over Michigan on Thursday. Residual diurnally-enhanced low clouds will diminish/dissipate this evening...leaving solid VFR conditions at all Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites thru Thursday. N/NW surface winds at 10 to 20 kts this evening will diminish to AOB 10 kts overnight thru Thursday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NSC LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...MLR