793
FXUS63 KAPX 180151
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
951 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and rain-free through the end of the week,
  leading to elevated fire danger at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

No significant changes to the current forecast. Outside of a few
patches of cirrus, mainly clear tonight. Expect patchy/areas of
ground fog to once again develop later tonight, especially
over southeast parts of the area toward Saginaw Bay. Another
comfortably cool night, with lows generally from the mid 40s to
the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Rather benign and mundane pattern through Wednesday with large scale
ridging aloft and sfc high pressure just to the east. Strong low
level heating, deep mixing, and dry sfc conditions will result in
high fire danger, however.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Ridging aloft and sfc high pressure to the east will keep northern
Michigan dry tonight into Wednesday. Thus, expect a typically cooler
night across low spots among hilly terrain and within river valleys
as cool air drains and pools in these locations. Could have
isolated spots of fog consequently. Anomalous high pressure
correlates to anomalous warmth, with temperatures remaining in
the 80s on Wednesday. Dry and warm low levels, deep mixing, and
dry vegetation will result in high fire danger on Wednesday.
Displaced pressure gradient to the west and thus light winds
over northern Michigan preclude any more significant fire
weather concerns, although erratic fire behavior would be
possible given the aforementioned variables, in a conditional
sense.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The pattern remains pretty consistent with high pressure situated
overhead with a few low pressure systems tracking around the
Northwoods. Warm temperatures, light winds, and hazy skies will
persist through at least Thursday. Temperatures through the long-
term will stay above normal (80s) until possibly next week slightly
cooler (70s) look to try and creep into the area. Cloud cover will
begin to fill in Friday as the next chances for rain looks to be
Friday night into Saturday. With the atmosphere very dry from the
lack of moisture brought into the region, anything that falls Friday
night into Saturday is not expected to amount to much, and could
potentially just end up being virga for most areas. Guidance
continues to struggle with the next chances for precipitation with
some hinting at precipitation Saturday and some Sunday/ Monday. Stay
tuned as we continue to fine tune these details in the coming
forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions. More of the same as high pressure remains in
control. Patchy ground fog possible once again after midnight,
likely have minimal impacts on the terminals. Outside of patchy
cirrus, minimal cloud cover expected through Wednesday morning.
Some diurnal cu may develop Wednesday afternoon, more likely
over eastern areas. This could impact APN with a few more
afternoon clouds. Winds becoming light and variable overnight,
then increasing by late morning/early afternoon on Wednesday
with lake breeze influences impacting speeds and directions.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JK/JLD