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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281037
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
637 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

...Warm and dry...

High Impact Weather Potential...for fire wx interests, very low
RHs continue.

Vertically stacked high pressure is, and will remain, entrenched
across the area in the near-term. As expected, some cirrus made
inroads into northern lower MI from the south during the night.
The cirrus will make it into the daylight morning hours before
dissipating, with mainly clear skies this afternoon and tonight.

Yesterday`s progs for max T and min RH worked out reasonably well.
Giver that persistence should be a good starting point, will
follow a similar plan today. For Max T, take the NBM guidance and
add 2-3f. That gives highs temps today in the low to mid 80s in
the interior of both peninsulas, 70s on the coasts. For RH, will
take NBM10Pct guidance for surface dew points, then subtract 2-3f
during peak heating this afternoon. Min RH fields are similar to
yesterday; low-mid teens in the interior of northern lower, and
upper teens inland in eastern upper MI. Once again, the lack of
any wind will somewhat moderate fire wx concerns.

We will still manage to see coolish min temps tonight, with
excellent radiational cooling. But surface dew points are slowly
creeping higher, and we will be starting from a warmer place this
evening. Min temps will be in the 40s, coolest in ne lower MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

...Very Warm to Hot...

Primary Forecast Concerns...Temperatures and minimum humidity.

High Impact Weather...Fire weather concerns.

Guidance remains consistent with ridging at the surface and aloft
through the short term and beyond. This will continue the stretch of
rain free and very warm to hot conditions. Upper level temperatures
continue to increase and mixing down to the surface yields highs of
well into the 80s to near 90. The airmass remains rather dry so
despite these toasty daytime temperatures, a large nocturnal fall is
expected once again Monday night. Lows in the 40s to low 50s are
expected. Of course with further drying of fine fuels and low
minimum relative humidity combined with the toasty temperatures,
fire danger will remain in the very high to extreme range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

...Summerlike Heat with Little to no Chance of Rain...

High Impact Weather...Fire weather concerns.

Ridging at the surface and aloft continues to dominate the weather
picture across the region for the most part through the long term. A
majority of model guidance is now backing off on cooler temperatures
as we head toward the end of the week. Highs through much of the
period are expected to be well into the 80s to the low 90s (some
spots possibly even reaching into the mid 90s Wednesday and
Thursday). Not as cool at night with lows mainly in the 50s to low
60s. The best chance for a cool down now looks like it may have to
wait until after next weekend. Fire danger will remain very high to
extreme, especially with little to no chance of rainfall over the
next week or more.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

VFR. No changes from the last couple of days, with high pressure
overhead and very dry air in place. Some cirrus overhead,
especially this morning. Light winds, with onshore lake breezes
developing again by early afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

No changes. High pressure is parked overhead, with light/variable
winds. Onshore lake breezes develop by midday, and last into
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ