Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 250203
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1003 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

High pressure remains centered across Lower Michigan and the
Eastern Great Lakes. A weak moisture-starved cold front is holding
along the southern shore of Lake Superior attached to low pressure
over the Northern Plains. Narrow line of convection that develop
during the heat of the day along and ahead of the cold front to
our north has dissipated with loss of diurnal instability. Rest of
the night will be dry...mostly clear and mild with overnight lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern features broadly
anticyclonic flow across central North America atop an expansive
upper level high from the southern Plains into the southeast.
Positive tilt short wave trough extends from Saskatchewan southwest
into to Washington.  Plume of deeper moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico northward into the upper Midwest...along with a low level
thermal ridge which is tilting into the upper Great Lakes.  At the
surface high pressure encompasses much of the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley eastward...a cold front is draped across northeast Ontario
and Lake Superior west into northern Minnesota/North Dakota.  Good
bit of sunshine across northern Michigan at mid afternoon...with
temperatures away from the immediate lakeshore in the 80s with a
couple of 90 degree readings at GOV/TVC.  Scattered high based
convection was developing across northern Wisconsin/southwest Upper
with a gusty thunderstorm earlier at IMT (not surprising with a
cloud base above 7K feet).  Some Cu trying to form over northeast
Lower within an area of 500+J/kg MLCAPE and weakening CINH.  An axis
of 500-1000J/kg MLCAPE stretches from northeast Ontario across
central/eastern Upper and into northern Wisconsin where activity
is bubbling up. Lake breezes right along the immediate shoreline
on Lake Huron this afternoon...as well as right along the Lake
Superior shoreline.

Cold front over Lake Superior not expected to make much more
southward progress before returning north as a warm front overnight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:  Any rain threat is the main concern...
which looks small but there is enough moisture (precipitable water
at and above 1.25 inch across Upper Michigan).  Will watch to see if
there is any late day development along the northeast Lower
shoreline south of PZQ...as well as across eastern Upper and monitor
current activity west of Green Bay and see if any of that tries to
make a run across northern Lake Michigan in a few hours.  The end of
the diurnal heating cycle would focus any additional precip chances
to eastern Upper...along a low level theta-e ridge axis. Not a
really big signal for precip so may end up not carrying a measurable
PoP.  Potential looks a lot like what happened this morning...just
enough forcing/energy for some spotty convection to develop.

After a warm afternoon expect a mild overnight with low temperatures
in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Synopsis/Forecast: Strong ridging persists and slightly strengthens
across the southern CONUS heading into the weekend. The shortwave
currently digging into the Pacific Northwest will move across the
Dakotas early Saturday then into the upper Great Lakes through
Sunday. The associated surface low moves into SW Ontario
Saturday...drawing up warm and moist air over Michigan with top-down
saturation slowly occurring through the day. Rain chances start to
move in from the west through the late afternoon. We remain hot
through the day, with highs near 90 away from the lake Shores south
of the bridge, and mainly lower 80`s in the north. Heading into the
nighttime hours, we`ll see shower chances to continue. We only
breifly get into a rapidly narrowing warm sector overnight. A few
hundred Joules of MUCAPE right along of and ahead of the front
should allow for some embedded thunder within the rain shield
overnight. With only a narrow corridor of instability and forcing
ahead of the front don`t believe QPF amounts will total to
much...with 0.25" or less expected across most of the area.

The cold front is then expected to pass through Sunday morning.
Subsidence and lower thetaE air moving in behind the front should
lead to a dry and much cooler day for Sunday for much of the area.
Areas near Saginaw Bay may still get up to near 80 degrees. Overall
a quiet day. A secondary cold front moves through Sunday night...but
a lack of forcing or decent moisture along it will keep it a dry
frontal passage. Monday`s highs may be a tad cooler than Sunday`s
with weak ongoing CAA and muted mixing to a lower height through the
boundary layer thanks to cooler 850mb temperatures and broadscale
subsidence from the right entrance region of the upper level jet.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Long Term: (Monday night - Friday)

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Wavy and progressive upper level pattern through mid-week across
the northern tier of the CONUS while riding persists in the south.
Zonal flow returns across us through late week as the jet slowly
sinks south. Guidance remains in good agreement on surface high
pressure dominating the Ohio Valley through mid week with seasonable
temperatures. A bit better signal now than in prior forecast runs
for a front moving through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday
set to aid some more scattered showers. Another quick warm up late
week ahead of another system poised to slide in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

High pressure centered over Lower Michigan and the Eastern Great
Lakes will slowly shift east of this area thru Saturday...but will
remain in control of the wx across Northern Lower Michigan thru
Saturday afternoon. An upstream cold front will move into the
Western Great Lakes later Saturday and Saturday night...resulting
in increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday
evening across our area. In the meantime...solid VFR conditions
will persist thru 00Z Sunday. Light/variable winds tonight will
become southerly at 10 to 20 kts on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

After another lake breeze dominant afternoon winds will become a
little more organized this weekend with low pressure moving into
the midwest and winds taking on a more southerly component
Saturday. Marginal small craft gusts possible through the weekend.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JPB


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