Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231026
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
626 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...Warmer weather returns...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Deep troughing, responsible for the recent shot of unseasonably cold
weather, is on the way out early this morning as mid level heights
begin to rebound across the western Great Lakes with slow east
ejection of Intermountain West ridging. While still chilly at the
surface (current reading mostly in the 40s), warm air advection
ramping up nicely aloft, as evident by H8 temperatures punching up
into the teens across western Wisconsin. Combination those
rebounding heights and overhead surface ridge axis resulting in dry
conditions across the Northwoods.

Upper level flow become quasi-zonal today and tonight across the
northern Conus, including the Great Lakes, as region becomes
centered between deep troughing across central Canada and
subtropical ridging sliding through the southern Plains. Combination
of this and increasingly gusty southwest winds on backside of
retreating surface high will result in much more seasonable type
weather across the northern Great Lakes.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing temperature trends and light shower potential.

Details:

Biggest story today will be the quick return to at least a bit more
summer-like conditions. Increasingly gusty southwest winds will help
temperatures recover quickly this morning, with afternoon readings
about right on par for were they should be this time of
year...ranging through the 70s. While much of the area will remain
dry, surge of some deeper low level moisture on nose of low level
jet may be just deep enough to kick off a few sprinkles/very light
showers, especially down near M-55. Definitely won`t be a big deal,
if rain even occurs at all. Significant moisture advection via deep
southwest flow expected to target the western Great Lakes tonight,
especially across Wisconsin into western upper Michigan. Leading
edge of theta-e gradient looks to push into western sections of the
area toward morning, perhaps drumming up a few showers in the
process (although trends suggest most activity remaining upstream).
Maintenance of those gusty southwest winds and some increase in
cloud cover will result in much milder conditions than the last few
night, with temperatures only dropping into the upper 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

...Heavy widespread rainfall possible late Thursday through
Friday...

High impact weather potential: Heavy rainfall is possible late
Thursday through Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible...none
expected to become severe at this time.

The Great Lakes region remains in a broad upper-level trough pattern
with surface low pressure developing over the upper Mississippi
River Valley. This pattern will produce persistent southwesterly
to southerly flow that will continuously advect Gulf Moisture
into northern Michigan ahead of a very slow moving cold front
associated with the aforementioned developing low pressure system.
Along with this moisture will be instability from shortwaves
moving through the upper-level trough...bringing periods of
showers throughout the day Thursday and possibly a few isolated
thunderstorms, mostly west of US-131. As this slow moving system
gets closer to the forecast area Friday , it strengthens, along
with upper-level jet support, and PWATS nearing or exceeding
2.00"...more widespread rain will be possible along with some
rumbles of thunder throughout the entire forecast area. This would
be some much needed rain for northern Michigan...as some
locations have not even reached a tenth of an inch so far in the
month of June. After some quick looking at past research...the
last time we saw 2"+ PWATS in June was back in 1996, when Sault
Sainte Marie recorded 1.78" of precipitation for June 29th. Let`s
hope this holds together and we see similar results for our CWA.
Some of the latest model runs actually show a northern lower split
once again...which we have seen time after time. Can only hope
that this does not happen once again, but something to keep an eye
out for and update the forecast accordingly.

As mentioned above, winds will be southwesterly to southerly
throughout this forecast period...gusting up to 35 mph at times.
Winds will begin the forecast period southwesterly before backing a
bit to more southerly Friday as the low pressure system mentioned
above continues to deepen and finally reaches the northern half of
Lake Michigan.

Daytime temperatures will be in the 70s, while lows drop to the mid
50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

High Impact Weather Potential...None at this time.

Model consensus at this point suggests cold front from end of short
term period should have pushed south/east of most of the area by
later Friday night or Saturday. Slightly cooler air, but still near
normal, will follow the front. The heavier rain threat should end
behind the front, but lingering upper-level troffing for the
remainder of the forecast period will support at least scattered
diurnally driven showers/storms. Pretty typical summer weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Watching northward expanding area of MVFR overcast to our
southwest. Trends support this continuing north, perhaps impacting
both KMBL and KTVC this afternoon. Otherwise, just some passing
high and mid level clouds through tonight. Southwest winds become
gusty today, remaining gusty through tonight. Strong low level jet
will bring wind shear to the taf locations tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021

Gusty southwest winds will spread across the Lakes today through
Thursday, bringing small craft advisory conditions to all of our
nearshore waters. Strong low level jet across Lake Michigan argues
for some isolated gales gusts on that body of water tonight into
Thursday morning (although increasingly stable over-water conditions
may prevent this from happening). Will go ahead and issue a gale
watch to account for this low end potential. Mainly dry weather
through tonight, with increasing chances for showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm returning on Thursday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for LHZ348-349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for LHZ345>347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ323-342.
     GALE WATCH from this evening through Thursday morning for
     LMZ344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB


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