060
FXUS63 KAPX 140348
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1148 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trending considerably warmer and more humid Sunday and
  beyond. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s possible Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Various chances of showers and storms at times Sunday night
  and into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Cold front (reinforced by earlier outflow air) is settling into
central lower MI. The boundary is still evident on our radar,
reaching Clare and Gladwin Cos. A few showers continue to get
kicked off, along and just on the cool side of the front,
especially in our far se. That sort of thing will continue for
another hour or two, before exiting south of this forecast area.

Upstream, spotty diurnal showers are seen in western upper MI
and far northern WI. Cloud cover and precip coverage in this
area is starting to diminish. CAMs do not have a great handle on
this precip area, but an overall decreasing trend is expected
to continue. We should see an increase in cloud cover in eastern
upper and nw lower MI overnight, and maybe a stray shower isn`t
impossible, but prefer to keep the forecast dry for now.

Min temps from mid 40s north to mid 50s south. Some patchy fog
seems possible, especially where it rained today, as the
pressure gradient is not tight enough to prevent gradual
decoupling in sheltered locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Thunderstorms developed across central upper earlier this
afternoon and this activity is presently drifting into eastern
upper. These storms are expected to move southeast out of that
area over the next hour or two. Across northern lower, little to
no activity thus far. Do expect isolated activity to develop out
ahead of approaching cold front. Still can`t rule out a few
strong to severe storms with damaging winds and large hail the
main threats. The front moves through this evening with clearing
skies and diminishing winds behind it. In addition, it will
gradually feel less humid with drier air moving in. Surface high
pressure moves over the region Friday yielding mostly sunny
skies and comfortable temperatures. Cooler tonight with lows
ranging from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. Highs
Friday ranging from around 70 north to the middle 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Troughing regime over northeast North America set to break down as a
thermal ridge flexes overhead by the end of the weekend, commencing
the return of warmth with a vengeance. As the 500mb thermal ridge
anchors itself over the Carolinas next week, this will lead to a
quick flow around the periphery of the ridge from WSW to ENE, right
over northern Michigan. This flow around the fringes of the ridge
will result in the potential for convective waves to pass through
the region at times next week, with temperatures in the 80s and
possibly well into the 90s for some at various times.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Precipitation: High pressure keeps things on the dry side Saturday
before a wave cresting the ridge axis passes through the region.
This will bring about the potential for showers and storms.
Admittedly, some uncertainty regarding this feature`s exact track.
This theme continues into next week, with any ejecting convective
wave originating from the plains being able to bring about showers
and storms amid the warm and potentially unstable airmass overhead.
Should be noted that this pattern is somewhat conducive for
mesoscale convective systems (MCS) to ride along the ridge into the
Great Lakes, which could lead to instances of lines of storms
containing strong winds. These systems can vary in position,
intensity, and timing with every run of guidance, so any forecast
regarding individual thunderstorm complexes will have to be fine
tuned perhaps a day or two in advance.

Temperatures: A pleasant and somewhat more seasonable day in store
for Saturday, with highs largely in the 70s (maybe 80s TVC?). Beyond
this, temperatures swell into the 80s Sunday and surge well into the
90s across northern lower and upper 80s in the eastern Yoop at least
for Monday and Tuesday. Some uncertainty is cast on how high
temperatures will exactly climb owing to potential disruptions of
heating from any storms that pass through the region. Should also be
noted that dewpoints surging into the 60s and perhaps near 70 will
add quite the humid feel to things, with overnight lows largely
stalling in the mid 60s to lower 70s for most during this warm
period... certainly an uncomfortable feel set to commence,
especially for those without home cooling.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Some fog overnight into Fri morning.

Cold front has departed to the southeast. Cooler/drier air
slowly entering the region. Winds have dropped off. Despite
some partial cloud cover working back into nw lower/eastern
upper MI tonight, some fog is likely to develop in fog-prone
locales. CIU/MBL are most likely to see fog, with MVFR/IFR
vsbys outright overnight. PLN/APN have TEMPO groups with MVFR
fog. No restrictions TVC. Fog will burn off quickly Friday, with
VFR conditions after.

Nw to n breezes develop Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ