733
AXNT20 KNHC 262316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 33W, south of 11N, moving westward at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed where the
wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 02N to 05N between 30W
and 36W.

A second tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with its
axis extending from the Virgin Islands to central Venezuela. This
feature is moving westward at 10-15 knots. The wave is currently
generating showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the
Lesser Antilles and regional waters, but mainly N of St. Lucia.
Moisture associated with this wave will spread across the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight into Mon, reaching Dominican
Republic on Mon. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible,
especially in mountainous areas, leading to flash flooding.
The wave is also triggering showers and thunderstorms over parts
of central and western Venezuela. Please refer to your local
weather office for more specific information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 04N35W to near the Brazil/French
Guiana border. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N
between 20W and 23W, and from 02N to 07N between 30W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the
the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures over Texas and Mexico is resulting in moderate to
fresh SE to S winds west of 88W. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6
ft based on altimeter data and buoy observations. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are noted, with the
exception of light winds over the NE Gulf. The smoke graphic
from NESDI once again indicates medium concentration of smoke,
resulting in hazy conditions across the western Gulf due to
agricultural fires over SE Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
Visible satellite imagery also confirmed the presence of the
smoke over the western Gulf, including the eastern slopes of the
Sierra Madre Mountains.

For the forecast, a relatively weak high pressure ridge will
continue to extend from the western Atlantic across the E Gulf
early this week. This will maintain a weak pressure pattern over
the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh SE to S winds will prevail W
of 87W through early Mon while light to gentle SE to S winds
will exist E of 87W. The winds W of 87W will shift to W of 90W
afterwards while winds east of 87W generally become light and
variable, except S of 26N where they become gentle NE to E winds.
Seas will be slight to moderate during the period. A weak cold
front will move across the far NE Gulf Mon and Mon night, followed
by gentle W to NW winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near
the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula during the late
afternoons and at night through Tue, then pulse to mostly fresh
speeds afterwards.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave currently moving across the eastern Caribbean. Farther
west, an upper-level trough extends from the western Atlantic
across the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba and into the SW
Caribbean. This feature continues to transport abundant tropical
moisture northward. The combination of these systems will
continue to enhance the development of showers and thunderstorms
over the Caribbean Sea, especially over Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola tonight and Mon. Low topped trade wind showers are
noted elsewhere, with a dense concentration of smoke over the
Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over northern Central
America.

Trades are beginning to slightly increase over the south-central
Caribbean where scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds.
Seas are 3 to 5 ft in this area. Similar wind speeds are also
noted S of 20N and W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras,
where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas dominate the reminder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin,
except for fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight
and Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central
Caribbean are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds late
Mon night through early Wed, diminishing back to moderate to
fresh speeds afterwards. A tropical wave over the eastern
Caribbean will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to this part of the Caribbean through early
Mon, continuing to the western Caribbean by the end of the week.
Strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas accompany
this activity.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave in the eastern Atlantic.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored by a 1027
mb high pressure system located E of the Azores near 39N20W. A
surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure located N of
the area near 33N55W to 25N65W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are evident on satellite imagery ahead of the trough. Scatterometer
data indicate the wind shift related to the trough, with gentle
to moderate winds on either side of it N of 26N. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle to moderate winds are N of 20N while moderate to fresh
trade winds are S of 20N. The pressure gradient tightens near the
Cabo Verde Islands between the ridge and low pressures over W
Africa. As a result, an area on mainly fresh NE winds extends
from the Cabo Verde Islands to about 23N between 20W and 30W.
Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, relatively weak high pressure across
the forecast region will change little during the next few days.
The associated gradient will support mostly moderate winds and
seas north of the Bahamas and off NE Florida by Mon night as the
high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a weakening cold front
that will move across the waters north of the Bahamas Tue into
midweek. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will precede the
front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the
this system.

$$
GR