959
AXNT20 KNHC 141045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 20.1N 40.9W at 14/0900
UTC or 990 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 12 ft seas are noted
within 120 nm in the northern semicircle with maximum seas to 14
ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
17N to 22N between 33W and 41W. Some weakening is anticipated
over the next day or so, and Gordon is forecast to become a
depression by early Sunday. Gradual restrengthening is possible by
the middle part of next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 03N to
16N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 08N between 20W and
the wave axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 62W from 08N to 20N. It is moving westward at around 10-15
kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W extending from 20N
to western Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to
13N33W, and then resumes near 15N44W to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N50W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 12N and E of 35W. Scattered showers are noted along
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Alabama border to the
central Gulf. A stationary front extends from the far western
Florida Panhandle to just north of Tampa Bay. A pre-frontal
trough is also analyzed from 27N85W to near 23N90W. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin,
except for seas 2 to 3 ft over the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will become established over the
north-central Gulf this weekend, with mainly tranquil conditions
expected throughout the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
waves moving across the basin.

A surface trough is analyzed S of Cuba southeastward from 20N78W to
18N79W. A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues
across much of the basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east
trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and
eastern sections of the basin. Gentle northeast to east and to
southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore of
eastern Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean through the
beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail
elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters
the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves
section for details on the wave in the basin.

A surface trough extends from 31N76W to South Florida. Scattered
showers is noted N of 26N and W of 70W. To the E, an upper-level
trough is interacting with a surface trough over the central
Atlantic, generating scattered moderate convection across areas
N of 25N between 54W and 69W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon. Earlier
scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the W coast of
Africa, generally N of 25N and east of 26W. The remainder of the
basin has gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
prevailing.

For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low pressure
is expected to form this weekend along a frontal boundary a few
hundred NM off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could
gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a
subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form early next
week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the
coast. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building
seas will impact the waters near 30N by the end of the weekend
into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail otherwise.

$$
ERA