329
AXNT20 KNHC 200922
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Alberto is centered near 22.3N 97.3W at 20/0900
UTC or 30 nm E of Tampico Mexico, moving W at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are up to 18 ft, with the
radii of seas 12 ft or greater extending within 420 nm NE
quadrant, 330 nm NW quadrant, and 30 nm SE quadrant. Satellite
imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection is over the
SW Gulf S of 23N and W of 95W.

Alberto is nearing landfall in Mexico this morning, and upon
landfall the tropical storm should quickly weaken over the higher
terrain of Mexico, with dissipation likely in 24 h, if not
sooner.

Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind
impacts occurring far from the center along the coasts of Texas
and northeastern Mexico. Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm
Alberto will begin to diminish today across southern Texas.
Rainfall associated with Alberto, however, will continue to impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Life-
threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of
higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria. Please consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office, and read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Alberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Strong high pressure north of the Azores
will shift southeastward through late Fri. A tightening of the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower
pressures in West Africa will support gale- force (Force 8 on the
Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts for the marine zone of
AGADIR beginning at 12Z on June 20 and lasting to 00Z June 21th
according to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas warning issued at 1905Z
today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France for more details at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from
04N to 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 06N to 08N.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 04N
to 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted from 08N to 10N between the wave
axis and 49W.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N23W to 10N29W, from 09N32W to 08N43W, and from 08N46W to
07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 10N
between 32W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Alberto and its impacts.

Aside from impacts discussed above, strong to near-gale force
winds are W of 89W. Fresh to strong winds are found E of 89W. Seas
of 8-12 ft are found W of 86W. Seas of 6-7 ft are E of 86W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Alberto is near 22.3N 97.3W at 5
AM EDT, and is moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 993
mb. Alberto will move inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 22.1N 100.6W this afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning.
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
this system could become a tropical depression over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to near-gale southeast winds over the northwestern
Caribbean west of about 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas
over this sections of the sea are in the 7 to 10 ft range.
Moderate to fresh prevail in the south central Caribbean, where
seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force SE winds and rough
seas over the NW Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds and moderate seas this weekend through early next week.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Sat before diminishing to moderate
speeds. Winds will pulse to strong speeds over the south- central
Caribbean through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb low pressure (Invest-AL92) is centered near 26.5N73.5W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of the low
from 26N to 30N between 71W and 77W. Fresh to strong winds are
noted N of the low and W of 72W where seas are in the 8-10 ft
range. A cold front from 31N47W to 28.5N55W becomes stationary to
30N67W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 27N between
40W and 52W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N and W
of 30W where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail elsewhere, except reaching
strong speeds off the coast of Africa N of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a small area of low pressure
located about 250 miles east of the northernmost Bahamas is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive due to
nearby dry air, further development of this system is possible
while the low moves west- northwestward and approaches the
northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on
Friday. Regardless of development, fresh to strong NE to E winds
and rough seas will prevail across the waters N of 26N through
tonight. High pres will build in the wake of the low, supporting
gentle to moderate winds through early next week.

$$
AL