517
AXNT20 KNHC 241810
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE is in the NW Caribbean Sea...

The hazards that will be affecting land are: rainfall, storm
surge, wind, and surf. It is recommended that residents in
Central America, and in Mexico, stay alert about the latest
information from their local meteorological offices.

The center of newly-formed Tropical Storm Helene, at 24/1800 UTC,
is in the NW Caribbean Sea, near 19.4N 84.5W. This position is
also about 151 nm/280 km to the ESE of Cozumel in Mexico; and also
about 151 nm/280 km, to the S of the NW tip of Cuba. Helene is
moving toward the WNW, or 295 degrees 10 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Tropical storm force
winds are: within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within
120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW
quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are: within 90 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in
the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and
within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea
height value is 14 feet. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is from the Windward Passage westward.
Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Nine
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 26W/27W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough
to 18N between 24W and 31W. The chance for development into a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 49W/50W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 20N southward between
50W and 63W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
11N to 20N between 40W and 50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 10N30W 08N37W 09N40W. The ITCZ is along 09N/10N
between 40W and 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward from 50W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Helene. Fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, cover
the waters that are from the Yucatan Channel northward for 135 nm
into the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower winds, and slight
seas, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Helene is near 19.5N 84.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is
moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Helene will move to 20.3N 85.2W this evening, strengthen to a
hurricane near 21.5N 86.3W Wed morning, 23.2N 86.3W Wed evening,
25.9N 85.4W Thu morning, 29.7N 84.3W Thu evening, and weaken to a
tropical storm near 33.9N 83.9W Fri morning. Helene will weaken as
a post-tropical cyclone near 39.7N 86.8W early Sat. Helene is
expected to become a large and powerful hurricane.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Helene.

Slight to moderate seas, and fresh to moderate SE winds, are from
80W eastward. An exception is for moderate or slower winds 16N to
20N between 60W and 70W, and from 16N southward between 60W and
64W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 24/1200 UTC, are: 0.40 in Kingston in Jamaica; 0.40 in
Tegucigalpa in Honduras; and 0.04 in Trinidad. This information
is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Tropical Storm Helene is near 19.5N 84.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is
moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Helene will move to 20.3N 85.2W this evening, strengthen to a
hurricane near 21.5N 86.3W Wed morning, 23.2N 86.3W Wed evening,
25.9N 85.4W Thu morning, 29.7N 84.3W Thu evening, and weaken to a
tropical storm near 33.9N 83.9W Fri morning. Helene will weaken as
a post-tropical cyclone near 39.7N 86.8W early Sat. Helene is
expected to become a large and powerful hurricane.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Helene.

A first surface trough is along 31N56W 26N60W 23N67W 23N71W. A
second surface trough is about 250 nm to the north and to the
northwest of the first surface trough. The second surface trough
is along 31N61W 27N69W 29N78W. Moderate to near-rough seas are
from 30N northward between 35W and 45W. Fresh southerly winds are
from 30N northward between 46W and 50W. Fresh SW winds are from
28N northward between 60W and 65W, close to the second surface
trough. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 20N northward between 45W and the first surface
trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate to locally strong, are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean from 40W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches,
for the period that ended at 24/1200 UTC, are: 0.22 in Freeport in
the Bahamas; and 0.06 in Bermuda. This information is from the
Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from
47W eastward. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 34N27W.

Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are from the monsoon trough/
the ITCZ northward from 43W eastward. Moderate winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ
northward. Fresh SE winds are from 02N southward between 25W and
44W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 06N southward
between 10W and 24W. Moderate or slower seas are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward.
Slight seas are from the ITCZ to 25N between 40W and 50W; from 27N
southward between 50W and 70W; and from 24N southward from 70W
westward. Mostly moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean. An exception is for moderate to near-rough seas
are from 20N to 24N between 20W and 24W; from 02N southward
between 30W and 35W; and from 30N northward between 38W and 46W.

Tropical Storm Helene is near 19.5N 84.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is
moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Helene will move to 20.3N 85.2W this evening, strengthen to a
hurricane near 21.5N 86.3W Wed morning, 23.2N 86.3W Wed evening,
25.9N 85.4W Thu morning, 29.7N 84.3W Thu evening, and weaken to a
tropical storm near 33.9N 83.9W Fri morning. Helene will weaken as
a post-tropical cyclone near 39.7N 86.8W early Sat. Helene is
expected to become a large and powerful hurricane. Expect fresh to
strong winds and rough seas just E of the Florida Peninsula to
about 78W, as Helene moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

$$
mt/gr