591
AXNT20 KNHC 250511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 10N and between 20W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 14N, moving
westward at 10 kt. The wave axis is enhancing the storm activity
in Suriname.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 20N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. No deep convection is present
near the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 kt. The wave axis is enhancing the storm
activity in Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 07N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident from 04N to 13N and east of 19W and also from 03N to
10N and between 30W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in
the nearshore waters of the NE and northern Gulf. A weak high
pressure system centered south of Pensacola, Florida, dominates
the basin, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin
along with slight seas. Winds will pulse moderate to locally
fresh at night across the western Gulf through most of the week.
Slight seas will prevail through the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW and
SE Caribbean Sea. A broad subtropical ridge centered near the
Azores extends into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the central portion of the basin as shown
by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters
are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of
3-6 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic basin.
This is causing moderate to fresh winds to persist across the
eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. Winds are expected
to pulse to strong speeds tonight near the coast over the south-
central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas will persist
across the western basin through the week, with strong winds
pulsing in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong trades
will accompany a tropical wave moving across the eastern and
central basin Tue through Thu. Winds will also increase fresh to
locally strong in the NW Caribbean from this tropical wave later
this week into the weekend, as well as an increase in seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft, plenty of tropical moisture and surface troughs
located in the NW Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the SW
North Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate
that fresh to strong winds are associated with the strongest
convection.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong
ridge near the Azores. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and
seas of 7-10 ft are occurring south of 20N and west of 55W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward
along 30N to offshore of NE Florida. This ridge will shift NE
tonight into Tue and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of
75W through tonight. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will
generally prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed,
becoming SE to S winds W of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles will prevail through tonight
associated with the passage of a tropical wave.

$$
Delgado