355
AXNT20 KNHC 250942
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 10N and between 20W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 18N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. This wave is the combination of
2 waves depicted in the previous map. Scattered moderate
convection prevails S of 14N between 60W-65W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 kt. The wave axis is enhancing the storm
activity over Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N28W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident within 100 nm on either sides of the boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are occurring in the SW Gulf of Mexico and in
the nearshore waters. A weak high pressure system centered south
of Pensacola, Florida, dominates the basin, supporting moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds prevail across the basin
along with slight seas. Winds will pulse moderate to locally
fresh at night across the western Gulf through most of the week.
Slight seas will prevail through the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW
and SE Caribbean Sea. A broad subtropical ridge centered near the
Azores extends into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the central portion of the basin. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 3-6 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic
basin. This is causing moderate to fresh winds to persist across
the eastern Caribbean through Fri. Winds will pulse to strong
speeds each night through Thu near the coast over the central
basin. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave
moving across the eastern and central basin today through Thu,
along with moderate seas. These winds/seas will follow the wave as
it moves W across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft, plenty of tropical moisture and surface troughs
located in the NW Bahamas and north of Puerto Rico result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the SW
North Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are associated with the
strongest convection.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong
ridge near the Azores. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of
7-10 ft are occurring south of 20N and west of 55W. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest
of the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will shift NE
today and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of 75W through
this morning. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally
prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S
winds W of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the
Lesser Antilles will prevail through this morning associated with
the passage of a tropical wave.

$$
ERA