703
AXNT20 KNHC 231037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW Caribbean and Adjacent Portions of Central America (AL97): A
broad 1005 mb low pressure centered near 17N81W is becoming more
organized. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
noted from 13N to 19N between 75W and 83W. Strong SE winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are also ongoing E of the center and in and near
this convection. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form over the next couple of days as the system moves
north across the NW Caribbean Sea and into the SE Gulf of Mexico,
where further development may occur. There is a high chance of
tropical formation over the next 48 hours. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall
across the eastern parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Yucatan
Peninsula through Wednesday, and near Cuba and the Cayman Islands
through Thursday. This will greatly increase the potential for
life- threatening flashing flooding and mudslides in these
regions. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned
areas stay alert on the latest information from their local
meteorological agencies. Please refer to the Tropical Weather
Discussion for the Eastern Pacific at website:
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across El
Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W, approaching the Cabo
Verde Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to
15N to the E of 24W. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the middle to later part of
this week while it moves W to WNW at around 10 kt across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southward
and moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 11N to 18N between 45W and 49W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the northern Senegal
coast, then curves southwestward through 09N20W to 05N32W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 05N32W to 06N43W, then resumes from
10N45W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 06N between 14W and 41W, and within 60 nm on either side of the
latter ITCZ segment.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection near the
Colombia-Venezuela coastal border in the south-central Caribbean
Sea.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section about likely tropical development
impacting the southeastern Gulf (AL97).

A 1014 mb high pressure centered offshore the Florida Panhandle is
dominating the basin, causing mainly gentle ESE winds and seas of
3 ft or less.

For the forecast, winds and seas will increase, especially over
eastern portions of the Gulf, by midweek, due to the
aforementioned tropical system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
heavy rainfall and likely tropical development in the NW Caribbean
and adjacent portions of Central America.

Refer to the Special Features and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
convection in the Caribbean Sea. Outside the winds and seas
mentioned in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SE
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail in the basin.

For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical system in the
NW Caribbean, little change in conditions is expected this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the tropical waves section for information on a tropical wave
in the far eastern Atlantic that has a potential for tropical
develop as it moves W to WNW into the central Tropical Atlantic
this week.

A weak cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to just NE of the
Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 120 nm
ahead of the front to the N of 25N. Scattered moderate convection
is seen north of 30N between 54W and 56W, near a 1008 mb low at
30N56W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate wind are noted N of 25N, with moderate to fresh NE winds
N of the monsoon trough to the E of 40W. Elsewhere, light to
gentle wind prevails. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with some 6 to
8 ft seas in N swell following the weak cold front between Bermuda
and the Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a set of northerly swell will
propagate into the northern waters today, bringing an increase in
seas over the waters N of 28N through mid-week. Low pressure,
possibly a tropical cyclone, is forecast to move northward through
the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week, which may bring
increasing winds and seas to areas offshore Florida and N of the
Bahamas.

$$
Konarik