339
AXNT20 KNHC 262056 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024

Updated Tropical Waves section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central America:
Satellite imagery reveals the beginnings of a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a forming Central American Gyre (CAG)
in Central America. Latest computer model guidance that there will
be large precipitation amounts in the coming days with the CAG.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over
Belize, and over some sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of southeastern
Mexico and Guatemala. The period of heavy rainfall in Panama and
Costa Rica is expected through Fri, and for Belize, Guatemala and
southern Mexico starting during the upcoming weekend and early
next week. It is recommended that residents in the areas to be
affected refer to products from their local or national
meteorological weather services for the latest information on
this upcoming heavy rainfall event.

...TROPICAL WAVES...Updated

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W
from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt.  Low pressure appears
to be forming along the northern part of the wave axis.
Satellite imagery shows disorganized scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection west of the wave to 34W from 09N to
11N  and from 05N to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm east of the wave from 05N to 07N. Low-level clouds
rotating cyclonically are seen on the last few GOESE visible
images from 09N to 12N between 27W and 32W. The wave remains
surrounded by very deep atmospheric moisture. Some slow
development is possible during the next several days, and a
tropical depression could form over the tropical Atlantic by the
end of the week or this weekend while the system continues its
westward motion.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 05N
to 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The majority of this
wave is being impacted by a dry and stable atmospheric
environment. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to
09N between 44W and 47W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W south of
18N to inland eastern Colombia. It is moving westward at about 20
kt. The 700 mb GFS wind guidance indicates a rather sharp
northeast to southeast wind shift near the wave axis. The wave is
surrounded by a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment.
Increasing clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 120 nm west of the wave from 14N to 18N. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 14N to 18N.
Fresh to strong east to southeast winds along with seas to 8 ft
trail the wave to near 70W. A recent ship observation near the
wave indicated southeast winds of 25 kt with seas to 8 ft.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some
gradual development in a couple of days over the western
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
weekend.

The previous western Caribbean tropical wave has moved just
inland Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. It is near 84W south of
16N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm from 11N to 13N

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from along the coast of
southern Senegal and northwest Gambia, southwestward to 10N19W
to 09N25W to 08N36W ,where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ and to 08N45W. It resumes from
08N46W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is seen
from 04N to 09N between 11W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N to 09N between 34W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for mainly
light to gentle variable winds and slight seas over the basin.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving northward over the
southwestern Gulf from 19N to 24N between 92W and 96W. This
activity is being sustained by a weak upper tough over that part
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the
eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking
ahead, wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf during the
upcoming weekend as a strong tropical wave, with some potential of
tropical cyclone development reaches the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a
central Caribbean fast moving wave. Otherwise, a moderate
pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressures in the central and western Caribbean
and in northern Colombia is maintaining moderate to fresh trade
winds along with moderate seas across the eastern and southwestern
Caribbean as noted in a recent ASCAT pass over those sections
of the Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere
over the central Caribbean outside the winds associated to the
tropical wave. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over
the northwest Caribbean along with slight seas.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are increasing
along and just offshore NW Colombia. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are south of 11N west of 80W.

For the forecast, environmental conditions could become more
conducive for some gradual development of the tropical wave late
this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the SW Gulf of
Mexico during the weekend. Regardless of development, fresh to
strong winds and moderate to rough seas will accompany this wave
as it continues its westward track across the central and western
Caribbean through Fri night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
forecast elsewhere Fri through Sun night, except for light to
gentle winds over the SW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 31N73W to just north of the NW
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 28N to 30N between 71W and 74W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm southeast of the trough between 76W and 78W. This
activity is being enhanced by an upper-level trough that extends
from near 31N79W to South Florida. A surface trough extends N to
S over the interior of the Florida peninsula. It along with
daytime heating and energy from the upper trough, is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms are increasing over some
interior portions of the peninsula. An areas of numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 26N to 28N between 63W and
67W. Scattered moderate convection is to the east-northeast from
26N to 30N between 60W and 63W. This activity is being sustained
by and upper level disturbance that is dropping southeastward
along the NE side of an upper-level anticyclone.

The the remainder subtropical Atlantic remains under the
influence of the Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate
NE to E winds across the eastern and central portions of the
subtropical waters, and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
over the western portion of the region. Seas are mainly in the
moderate range across the sub-tropical region. Gentle to moderate
trade winds are east of about 60W, while light to gentle east to
southeast winds are west of 60W except for light variable winds
west of 65W. Winds may be higher at times in and near the
aforementioned areas of convection.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
dominate the area during the forecast period producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas east of 75W and
northeast of the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and a surface trough now extending from 31N73W to near the NW
Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong south to southwest
winds ahead of the trough axis through Thu evening.

$$
Aguirre