430
AXNT20 KNHC 190445
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One:
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 16 ft within 420 nm NE and 390 nm
NW quadrants. The broad wind field associated with this
disturbance is generating tropical storm force winds extending
outward up to 360 nm of the center in the northern semicircle.
Scattered convection is being observed near the center of the
system. In additions, the latest satellite imagery shows
numerous moderate to strong convection confined to the Bay of
Campeche. An area of  numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the NW Gulf and over the western portion of
the central Gulf from 23N to 27N between 91W and 96W. Similar
convection shifting northwestward is seen from 22N to 28N
between 85W and 91W. In addition, heavy rain is impacting
portions of southern Mexico and the northern portions of Central
America. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into
South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thu. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

The system is forecast to turn toward the west
with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and on
Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of
northeastern Mexico by Wednesday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed  along 20W from
02N to 19N. The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
10N to 118N between the coast of Africa and 19W, and from 04N to
12N between 21W and 28W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36.5W from
03N to 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a
dry airmass that is suppressing the shower activity near the
axis.

A western Atlantic tropical wave was introduced in the 00Z
surface analysis along 52W south of 15.5N based on tropical wave
diagnostics. No significant convection is depicted at this time
in association with the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71.5W south
of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection
is depicted at this time in association with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic near 16.5N16W, and
continues southwestward to 10N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N43W to 07N50W and from 08N53.5W to 9.5N60W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 09N between 42W and
49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is the main feature over the
basin. Aside from convection described above related to Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is south of 22N between the western tip of Cuba and
the northeast section of the Yucatan Peninsula. Aside from the
area of 35 kt winds, strong to near-gale force winds cover much
of the waters W of 87W, with fresh to strong winds east of 87W.
Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas discussed above,
seas of 8 to 12 ft cover most of the waters north of 21N and
west of 84W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 22.5N
93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. One will move to 22.7N 94.4W Wed
morning, 22.8N 96.3W Wed evening, then inland to 22.9N 98.5W Thu
morning. Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to
develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system early next week while it
moves slowly northwestward.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and related impacts.

The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One is resulting
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean and over portions of the central part
of the sea. The activity over the northwestern Caribbean reaches
the Yucatan Channel. The broad wind field around Potential
Tropical Cyclone One is supporting fresh to strong southeast
winds in the northwestern Caribbean, especially west of 81W.
Stronger gusts are possible with the strongest convection. Seas
in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the broad circulation around Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will continue to support fresh to strong SE winds
with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean
through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades over the
central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds by
Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough is analyzed from near 30N80W to central
Florida. No significant convection is depicted in association
with the trough. Farther east, a cold front enters our waters
near 31N50.5W and extends southwestward to 29N54W where the
front becomes stationary and extends to 28N58W, then a trough
continues to a 1014 mb low near 26N65W. The trough then extends
from the low to just north of the Dominican Republic at
21N69.5W. Satellite imagery shows numerous showers and
thunderstorms from 19N to 25N between 59W and 65W. Scattered
showers and Thunderstorms. Similar convection is depicted from
19N to 22N between 66W and 71W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E
winds are found north of 26N west of 58W. Seas within this winds
are 6 to 9 ft.

Over the far eastern part of the area, a surface trough extends
from 29N10W through the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds are found between the trough and the Cape
Verde Islands along with seas of 6 to 8 ft.

The remainder of the area is dominated by broad ridging, anchored
by a 1033 mb high pressure system in the far northeastern
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the northwest Atlantic is maintaining moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds north of the monsoon trough to 22N
and east of 41W. Seas over the area described are 4 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of a surface trough/low
pres system analyzed from 28N58W to 21N68W. Environmental
conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the next few days while it moves westward
or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the
coast of the southeastern United States on Thursday. Regardless
of development, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
prevail across the waters N of 25N through Thu.

$$
KRV