948
AXNT20 KNHC 010600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N to 08N between 30W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 13N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present from 03N to 13N between 50W and 54W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 74W from 17N
southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is occurring east of the wave axis from 13N to 17N
between 75W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 05N20W. An
ITCZ continues westward from 05N20W to 05N30W, then from 05N33W
through 05N40W to 08N48W. Numerous moderate convection is seen
near the trough from 03N to 09N between 12W and 20W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring up to 200 nm north, and 120 nm
south of the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing
scattered moderate convection at the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
just east of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big
Bend Area to near Veracruz, Mexico. A surface trough is
triggering widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern Gulf. Fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft are found at the Bay of Campeche and eastern Gulf.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
across the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf through at
least Sun, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western
Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf.
Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh in the eastern Gulf tonight
through Sat as well. Due to local effects, fresh to strong NE to E
winds will pulse near the northern and western portions of the
Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night through
Sun. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central
America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of
days, reducing visibility at times.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pronounced upper-level trough stretches southwestward from
northwest of Bermuda across 31N74W and central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Divergent flow related to this feature is coupling with
convergent trades to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near Jamaica, central and eastern Cuba, and the
Windward Passage. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
are seen at the central basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to
6 ft seas are present at the north-central basin. Mostly fresh E
winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras.
Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between a surface
ridge north of the area and lower pressure near Colombia is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds at the south-central
Caribbean, and fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras and the lee of
Cuba. The pressure gradient will increase further later tonight
into Sat as the high pressure strengthens some. This will lead to
fresh to strong trade winds across the entire central Caribbean
Sat through early Mon, with seas building to around 9 ft. These
winds will diminish slightly by early next week. Looking ahead,
the potential for heavy rains returns next week across Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeast
and central Bahamas. Localized flooding is possible, especially
where the ground remains very moist from recent heavy rain events.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pronounced upper-level trough stretches southwestward from
northwest of Bermuda across 31N74W and the Bahamas to beyond
central Cuba. Divergent flow related to this feature is coupling
with convergent southeasterly winds to generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms from 21N to 25N between 65W and the Bahamas, and
from 25N to 31N between 62W and 67W. A weak cold front extends
southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N65W to 27N72W.
Patchy showers are evident near and up to 80 nm northwest of this
boundary. A dissipating stationary front curves westward from
southeast of the Azores across 31N25W to 24N37W, then continues
northwestward as a frontal trough to 28N49W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is occurring up to 50 nm along either side of
these features. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north
of 27N between 66W and the Florida/Georgia coast, including the
Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas are found north of 20N between 25W and the
Florida Coast/Bahamas. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands,
moderate N to NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist north of 15N
between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from
07N to 20N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate
E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate. Light to gentle
with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, a reinforcing frontal boundary will
move eastward across the western Atlantic, reaching from 31N60W to
the southeast Bahamas by Sat morning then becoming nearly
stationary along 25N on Sun. High pressure building in behind the
front will tighten the pressure gradient across the region,
bringing fresh to locally strong winds across waters north of 24N,
along with building seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas.
Marine conditions will slightly improve across the western
Atlantic by early next week.

$$

Chan