Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
705 FXUS61 KBGM 141849 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving through this afternoon will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat in northeast PA and Sullivan County NY. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. Next week will be hot and humid. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM UPDATE... The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Behind this is drier stable air ahead of the cold front. There is very little moisture and no instability in CNY. Showers in NEPA and the western Catskills don`t have much to work with. The showers remain low topped and mostly light for now. Strong thunderstorms from the northwest will move into the far south soon. The initial trough should slow. The best chance of thunderstorms remain in NEPA and Sullivan County PA. In CNY convection could be isolated at best. Lowered pops and dewpoints here. In NEPA and Sullivan County there is instability and moisture. With clouds temperatures remain in the 70s but dewpoints are in the 60s. There is still some chance of damaging winds with the thunderstorms which will move through Luzerne and maybe further north. Showers move southeast out of the area this evening. Late tonight into Saturday night will be dry and cooler. High pressure will build into the area Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the 50s tonight and 40s Saturday night. Highs Saturday will be from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 210 PM Update: High pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny on Sunday. With the building ridge still located west of the region, one last day with temperatures near-normal is expected before the heat builds in for the remainder of the week. Highs are expected to be in the lower 70s to near 80. Then mostly clear skies are expected Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. These will be the coolest lows our region will have for the remainder of the week. A strengthening ridge moves overhead on Monday, which will bring much warmer temperatures. Widespread highs in the 80s are expected, with lower 90s in the valleys. Dew points will be on the rise too (into the 60s). Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected, although cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the Finger Lakes Region in the afternoon. Then mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s is expected Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 210 PM Update: In terms of precipitation, the long term period will be fairly quiet. A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out each day due to daytime heating, but with the ridge dominating, any organized shower or thunderstorm activity is very unlikely. By the end of the week (Friday), a shortwave riding along the edge of the ridge may bring some more organized shower and thunderstorm activity, although even this is far from a certainty. The main story for the long term period will be the prolonged heat. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s (and even some upper 90s) is expected each day Tuesday through Friday. Dew points will also be quite high; mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will result in heat indices well into the 90s, and likely exceeding 100 degrees in the valleys. Heat headlines will likely be needed as we get closer. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 130 pm update... VFR for most of the sites into Saturday afternoon. AVP has a chance of restrictions before 22z as showers and thunderstorms move through with gusty winds and heavy rain. Drier air will move in tonight so valley fog is not expected tonight. Northwest winds this afternoon at 10 kts this afternoon. Winds northerly and light tonight. Winds Saturday increase to 10 kts with higher gusts out of the north. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Monday morning...mainly VFR. Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...TAC