543
FXUS61 KBGM 300519
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
119 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and thunderstorms overnight through the day
tomorrow. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible in
Northeast PA in the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow
but most of the region will stay dry. High pressure will build
into the region for the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
940 PM Update...

Lowered PoPs for the next several hours across CNY where
largely dry conditions are expected until additional spotty
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm pop up overnight. The
probability of thunder was also reduced through the overnight
hours with modest amounts of instability in place but still
plenty of shear, so it wasn`t completely ruled out. Both
sustained winds and gusts were running higher than most
observation sites, so they too were reduced through the
overnight.

300 PM Update...

Thick cloud cover and widespread rain has kept most of the
region cooler this afternoon but dew points have been able to
creep up with the southerly flow at the surface. A warm front is
trying to push northward with the nose of the surface warm
front into central PA to western NY already. As of now, surface
based CAPE is all S and W of our region but as these showers
move through, there will be couple hours of thinner clouds as
well as time for that warm front to make its way into NEPA and
the Southern Tier of NY. Still there is more showers that exist
in the warm sector than many of the models show so right now, it
is likely there will be less instability this afternoon and
evening for our area. Despite the lower CAPE, the BGM radar
vertical wind profile has continued to show robust speed and
directional shear in the low levels with the 3 hour average
0-1km SRH over 400m2/s2 and 0-3km shear near 40 knots. If a
storm can take on an easterly component that would maximize use
of the environmental helicity and could produce a tornado, even
if it is just a stronger shower with no lightning. Luckily
without high amounts of instability, anything that does form
will be on the weaker side.

Tonight, an upper level trough begins to dig in with upper
level flow becoming more northwesterly. Morning models showed
cooler and drier air making its way in faster so chances of
precipitation were lowered after midnight but at least kept at a
slight chance as there is enough low level moisture in place
still for isolated to scattered showers and drizzle.

Tomorrow, a cold front moves through and the timing of that
front will determine tomorrows severe risk. As of now, it looks
like the cold front makes it through most of the region in the
morning with instability mainly developing in NEPA. There will
be nearly 50 knots of 0-6 km shear present so any storm that
develops ahead or along the front in the late morning and early
afternoon could become strong with all hazards possible. The 12Z
HREF mean CAPE and 2m Temperatures do show that there was a
slight slowing of the front so it is possible that we may see
SPC bring the slight risk for tomorrow farther west if the trend
continues with this evenings runs. HREF CAPE spread for the
25-75 percentile for AVP is 1300 to 2500 J/kg while BGM is from
roughly 1000 to 1300 J/kg so the risk will increase as you head
SE tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

With a shortwave trough departing Monday morning, and sprawling
surface high pressure building in, the first half of the week ahead
will be dry. Breezy NW winds Monday will keep temperatures in the
lower-70s for most of area, except mid-70s for the Wyoming Valley.
Southerly return flow will bring increasingly warm temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs reaching the 80s. A cold front
will be approaching the area from the west late Wednesday, but there
is reasonable confidence that most of the area will stay dry through
the afternoon with  the only mentionable PoPs in the extreme western
edges of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM Update...

A cold front will move into the area Wednesday night, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast uncertainty ramps up
beginning Thursday as upper level flow goes zonal, and the front
looks to get hung up somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic. Thursday is a
bit up in the air in terms of precip chances depending on how far
south the front can push before stalling out.

Either way, it looks to return north as a warm front on Friday, as a
weak shortwave trough and associated surface wave ripples along the
front. Early indications suggest another approaching cold front
looks to bring the chance for showers back for yet another weekend
appearance.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Moist airmass over the region with showers and thunderstorms
developing early this morning and heading into RME and SYR
around 3 AM (07Z) and eventually into ITH just before sunrise.
It is unknown at this time how far southeast this line of
thunderstorms will push, but storms may also impact ELM and BGM
later this morning, but confidence was just too low to add to
the forecast at this time. Fog and low ceiling will likely also
be a concern at ELM and AVP through the early morning hours.

Flight conditions gradually improve to VFR later this morning or
early afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR. Isolated restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly southern half of the area.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Restrictions with showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MWG
NEAR TERM...AJG/DK
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JAB/MPK