951
FXUS61 KBGM 030425
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1225 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible through Tuesday. The first half of the week will be
warm and shower chances will increase midweek as the next
system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM Update...

PoPs were expanded to cover the spotty showers across the Twin
Tiers and up north into southern Onondaga and Madison Counties.
Farther west, some observations are beginning to report fog, so
we will be watching to see how it develops in our region early
this morning.

950 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made to temperatures/dew points and PoPs as
showers continue to gradually taper off. Did expand the coverage
of patchy fog a bit more for early tomorrow morning, mainly
toward the southern Finger Lakes area.

645 PM Update...

Took PoPs up across CNY the next few hours with a more defined
area of showers moving through. The NAMNest has a pretty good
handle on what is currently on radar so did blend some of that
into the forecast through the rest of the evening. Adjusted dew
points as they were currently running lower than what was being
observed and blended in the NBM 90th percentile through much of
the night to give them a bit of a boost.

325 PM Update...

A weak frontal system is pushing in from the west this afternoon
and some light rain showers will be possible through this
evening. However, very dry conditions in the mid levels will
limit rainfall from reaching the ground and VIRGA has been
reported at a few locations already this afternoon.
Very little instability is currently present as mid and upper
level clouds have limited heating today, so decided to remove
thunderstorms from the forecast this afternoon.

Overnight, showers will continue until just before midnight. Low
level moisture advection will continue overnight and this will
likely lead to some valley fog developing, especially in any
areas that do see showers this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
tonight will remain mild, only falling into the upper 50s and
low 60s.

A ridge begins to build into the region on Monday, but a weak
shortwave pushes in from the NW tomorrow afternoon, and although
a cap will likely exist, this may be enough to kick off a few
isolated thunderstorms during peak heating in the afternoon.
The best chance will be over the terrain areas of the Catskills
and Poconos as orographic lift may provide enough boost to
break through the cap. Most of the area will stay dry and see
mostly sunny skies. Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Any showers and thunderstorms will dissipate around
sunset. Tomorrow night will remain warm with lows only falling
into the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

A cooling trend begins Tuesday as a slow-moving upper-level low
from Canada slowly marches towards Central NY and NE PA.
Temperatures will decrease from the low- to mid-80s Tuesday to
high-70s to low-80s Wednesday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday before the
aforementioned system swings down into the Great Lakes region,
bringing heavier rain showers Wednesday night. The Weather
Prediction Center indicates a Marginal Risk (at least 5% risk of
flash flooding) for Wednesday night, with QPF values up to half
an inch of rainfall overnight Wednesday through early Thursday
morning. We`ll keep monitoring the changes in guidance as we get
closer to mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
220 PM Update...

The slow-moving upper-level low spins just north of the region
and goes quasi-stationary there through the rest of the long-
term period. The cooling trend from mid-week continues into the
weekend, with temperatures falling from mid- to high-70s
Thursday to the high-60s to low-70s Saturday. It`ll be quite the
unsettled pattern with chances for rain showers during the
entire stretch from Thursday to Saturday, with chances of
thunderstorms in the afternoons. Currently, the Weather
Prediction Center has the area under a Marginal Risk (at least 5%
risk of flash flooding) for Thursday; it wouldn`t be surprising
if this continued through the rest of the week due to the
unsettled pattern. It`s difficult to pinpoint how much rainfall
we may receive this upcoming week since different long- term
models suggest the center of the system to be in different
positions every day of the long-term, which can influence the
amount of rainfall an area could receive. For now, we`ll
continue to monitor how long-term guidance shifts over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are in place at all terminals despite showers
currently moving through CNY. Showers are expected to be light
enough through the rest of this evening to not result in any
restrictions. While most showers are expected to taper off
around 03-04Z, an isolated shower or two may still linger in
the area through 08-10Z. However, with the shower activity
ending in most places, conditions are expected to be favorable
for fog or low stratus to develop overnight. Model guidance
continues to favor ELM in particular for IFR or worse
conditions. Although confidence is still lower at ITH and BGM
for fog, with rainfall occurring at both ITH and BGM this
evening it does make it a bit more favorable, so TEMPO groups
for IFR visibilities were added between 09-12Z. Any fog that
develops will likely lift around 12z tomorrow, but there could
be some lingering low ceilings before VFR conditions return to
all terminals.

Isolated afternoon showers or even a thunderstorm are possible
after 18Z tomorrow, with AVP having the best chance of seeing
anything spotty, so this will be monitored for potentially brief
restrictions.


Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Isolated
showers/storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Patchy
valley fog and restrictions Monday night.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

Friday...additional shower chances and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK/MPK