619
FXUS61 KBGM 250545
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
145 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The rest of tonight will be cool and clear with patchy valley
fog over Delaware river basin. Tuesday will be mainly sunny and
warmer, with temperatures back up into the 80s. Wednesday has a
chance at seeing scattered severe thunderstorms once again with
best chances in the Southern Tier and Northeast PA during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

115 AM Update...

Skies are clear across the region with winds becoming light and
variable. Temperatures are dropping a bit more than forecasted,
with some of the cooler rural valley locations already in the
lower 50s. Areas east of Binghamton which did not see much
sunshine today, and therefore did not warm up and dry the ground
out are seeing valley fog forming...this includes the valleys of
Otsego and Delaware counties. From Binghamton west, it does not
appear much, if any fog will form tonight, as overnight lows do
not reach the crossover temperatures in most cases.

725 PM Update...

Updated the wind and wind gust forecast to match current
observations. As a low level jet moves out of the area, wind
gusts are expected to decrease through the next few hours.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


145 PM Update...

Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet
passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface
at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with
hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting
45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of
the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with
loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have
winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley
wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for
the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk
valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will
be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East
of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as
drier so fog formation will be tough.

Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region
and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in
higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry
but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the
northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the
Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is
low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any
propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping
south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon.
Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there
is better chances as showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM Update...

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms returns
Wednesday, mostly during the afternoon evening as a positively
tilted trough dropping south of out Canada moves over the Great
Lakes region and a surface cold front beings to approach from
the west as well. Guidance does show a shortwave moving across
the area ahead of these two features that could be the initial
catalyst for storms as early as late-morning or early afternoon,
but there is uncertainty in its path and timing over the CWA.
There is the potential for some locally strong, perhaps even
severe, storms this day, however CAPE values do look to be lower
than earlier this morning, generally peaking around 1000-1500
J/kg, but the NAM is higher, closer to 2000 J/kg, but we are
outside of its wheelhouse. Shear peaks around 40-50 knots and
mid-level lapse rates are around 6.5-7.0 degrees C/km. Winds
look to turn southwesterly ahead of the upper trough mainly over
NE PA into the southern Catskills sending dew points in these
areas into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and this region is
where there is a slight risk out by the SPC. Much of CNY is
currently outlooked under a marginal risk, so this day will be
closely monitored. High temperatures Wednesday range from the
low and mid 80s over CNY to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
over portions of the Twin Tiers, NE PA and southern Catskills.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to be scattered about
Wednesday night as the cold front moves through. Low
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s to the low
60s.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the
west promoting dry conditions Thursday through Thursday night.
Northwest winds will set up a cool day for most on Thursday with
highs in the low to mid 70s, except for the Wyoming Valley
which could still approach 80 degrees. A pretty good radiational
cooling night sets up Thursday night under clear skies as lows
are expected to fall in the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 PM Update...

High pressure remains in control Friday with highs expected to
return to the upper 70s to the low 80s. Another shortwave trough
and surface cold front is expected to bring the chance for
showers and storms unfortunately for the weekend before drier
air pushes back in early next week. Highs Saturday range from
the upper 70s to the mid 80s and are expected to cool slightly
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

140 AM Update

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies are nearly
completely clear over the region currently. Valley fog is
forming over the eastern counties where it is already cooler and
humidity levels remain high. For our taf sites, there is a
slight chance (10-20%) for patchy fog to form near RME over the
next several hours, as overnight lows approach the crossover
temperature (55F) here. ELM looks to remain above their
crossover temperature of 49F, even with the clear skies
overhead, so widespread fog in the Chemung River Valley is not
expected at this time. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected
areawide for most of the day today.

Some mid level clouds will approach toward sunset and into the
evening hours. There is a chance for some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms after 00z, mainly for the NY terminals;
but confidence was too low to include in the tafs this far out
in time. Will monitor trends in the latest model guidance/CAMS.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms; especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KL/MJM